CFL.ca
CFL.ca Staff
With files from Steve Daniel, Head Statistician
WININPEG – After 22 weeks of football, the 103rd Grey Cup presented by Shaw is finally here.
The Ottawa REDBLACKS and Edmonton Eskimos are set to face off at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg on Sunday, November 29 for the Grey Cup.
Both clubs won their respective divisions during the regular season and earned first round byes but all that matters now is the final game of the season.
Equipped with the most up-to-date storylines, stats, milestones and trends, enjoy this week’s CFL.ca Game Notes.
Sunday, 6:00 pm ET: Ottawa at Edmonton (Investors Group Field – Winnipeg) – SOLD OUT
Around the League
8% increase in scoring: Offences increased their scoring by the equivalent of one more touchdown per game – up to 44.5 points on offence per game in 2015 from 37.7 points per game in 2014 (the lowest we had had since 1979). Compare that 18% increase in 2015 to the drastic 23% decrease in scoring offence for 2014 over 2013.
Inside 2015: Scoring by offences averaged 40.1 points per game over the first half of the year, and jumped to 48.9 ppg over the final 41 games – a nice 22% increase.
TD drive %: In 2014 the CFL had a touchdown drive only one time in every 7.9 possessions – the lowest TD rate since the league started to track results by possession in 2008. In 2015, there were 48 more TD drives than there were in 2014 (357 TDs vs 309 TDs by offences) – an increase of 17%. One key is the dramatic reduction in Two-and-Outs in 2015: down by over 12% at 10.7 per game compared to 12.2 per game in 2014.
Close games: In 2015, 35% of CFL games (28 of 81) were decided by 4 points or less and that is an all-time CFL record; there were 44 games settled in the final 3:00, 54% of the total.
Pass-to-run Ratio: Major change over 2014 as passing was responsible for 74% of total yards gained compared to just 69% in 2014. That is an enormous change in just a single year. Total rushing attempts dropped from 39.7 per game down to 37.1 in 2015 – the fewest rushes per game in the last 23 years.
1-Point Converts at 85.5%: Following the rule change, kicked convert success rate dropped from 99.4% to 85.5% in 2015. That was better than the expected value of approx. 81% (the FG success rate from the distance 2010-2014).
2-Point converts at 65.9%: The final result was higher than expected at 66% successful tries in 2015. The main reason was due to the rule change that moved the attempt to the 3-yard line – the rate declined as the season went on however.
2nd down conversions up to 47%: In 2015, CFL offensive units converted at 47% on 2nd down compared to just 42% in 2015. The 47% result in 2015 was the highest the CFL has experienced since we first started to compile this statistic in 2008.
Penalties up 9%: In 2014, the CFL experienced an 18% increase in penalties per game, the largest jump in CFL history. Though they increased again in 2015 the growth was just 9%. The main area of increase was holding, illegal block and pass defence calls such as Illegal Contact on a Receiver.
102 coaches’ challenges – 1.26 per game: Virtually unchanged in frequency and success rate from 2014 (1.23 per game) with 34% of them resulting in an overturned ruling on the field.
Matchup Notes
Grey Cup #25: With this appearance, the Eskimos break the tie with Winnipeg for most Grey Cup games and will be playing in their 25th since 1921 (when they belonged to the amateur WCRFU) and 23rd since entering the old WIFU (today’s West Division in 1938). With 13 victories, they trail only Toronto who has won 16 times since 1914.
Ottawa’s remarkable feat/opportunity: In the CFL era of at least 12-game schedules (since 1948), only one team has ever won two games or less the previous season and won the Grey Cup the very next year – that was Montreal in 1969 at 2-10-2 (.188) who went on to defeat Calgary 23-10 in the 1970 Grey Cup. Ottawa can match Montreal’s 1970 Grey Cup victory having won just two games the year before. Ottawa has an opportunity to take the lowest-ever winning % from one season (14 games below .500) and turn that into a Grey Cup title the very next year.
1981 all over again: The 93-yard completion to win the East Final was the 9th longest in all CFL playoff history. However in a unique historical parallel, the last time that Ottawa won a playoff final game they did so in similar late fashion. In 1981, Ottawa’s last Division Final win before 2015, J.C. Watts connected with Pat Stoqua for a 102-yard TD pass play to take a 14-13 lead over Hamilton with 6:40 to play. Ottawa wound up winning 17-13. The 93-yard TD by Ellingson was the longest-ever TD play in the final 3:00 of any CFL playoff game in league history.
Ottawa #1 Rankings: The REDBLACKS led the CFL in 11 different statistical categories in 2015, in particular net offence allowed at just 298 yards per game. That completed a full turnaround as they ranked #9 in 2014 at 373 yards against per game. Ottawa also led the CFL in net offence per game at 386.3 yards per game in 2015. This is actually not all that rare as Edmonton was number one in both in 2014 as was BC in 2012. They are the first Ottawa team since 1978 to rank #1 on both offence and defence however.
Opponent 2-&-Outs: One primary reason that Ottawa and Edmonton reached the Grey Cup in 2015 is their strong defensive units. They ranked #1-2 in the CFL in forcing opponents into 2-&-outs averaging 6.9 (EDM #1) and 6.1 (OTT #2) per game respectively.
Meeting #4: Teams from Ottawa and Edmonton have met three times before in the Grey Cup in 1960, 1973 and 1981. With this game, Edmonton matches Saskatchewan as Ottawa’s most frequent Grey Cup opponent at four times.
Ottawa TOP: The REDBLACKS held the TOP advantage in 14 of their 18 games and led the CFL with an average of 33:10. That mark of 33:10 average was the third-highest since the CFL has regularly published team TOP data (2000).
Edmonton 9 wins in a row: The Eskimos come into this Grey Cup riding a 9-game win streak. That is their longest season/playoff-ending win streak since 1982 when they won their last 8 regular season contests plus the Western Final.
Close game success in 2015: Edmonton went 4-1 in games decided by 4 points or less in 2015 and Ottawa one better at 5-1.
Chris Jones 26-10 first 36 games: In 2013 the Eskimos finished out of the playoffs at 4-14 and were 11-25 across the 2012-2013 seasons. Under Head Coach Chris Jones, that record of 11-25 has been almost exactly reversed at 26-10.
4th Quarter Edmonton: The Eskimos have not been outscored in the 4th Quarter in their last 9 games (107-22 scoring edge) or in any of their 14 wins this year. In their 14 wins they are 145-28 (+117) in Q4 scoring, in their 4 losses they have been outscored 29-3. They had two games in 2105 where they outscored their opponent 21-0 in the final 15:00.
Not much rushing: Due to several injuries and personnel changes at running back, neither team (based on last week’s Div. Final rosters) comes into this game with a player at that position with a starter with more than 450 rushing yards. William Powell for Ottawa gained 447 yards in just 7 games to lead Ottawa, while last week’s starter Akeem Shavers comes in with just 83 yards in two regular season games. Edmonton has the #1 rushing QB in Mike Reilly however at 32.4 yards per game (#2 overall with 324 yards). Edmonton was missing their leader Shakir Bell last week (633 yards in 11 games).
Edmonton’s last 4 games: The Esks offence averaged 464 net yards per game including 339 via the pass over the final 3 regular season games. In the 2015 Western Final, they kept that up with another 400+ day – 438 yards including 370 passing.
Edmonton 4th Qs: Last week Calgary outscored the Eskimos 16-14 in the final 15:00 snapping their 8-game run of not losing the 4th Quarter in any contest.
Interception return TDs: The Eskimos were #2 in the CFL with four “pick 6’s” in 2015 while Ottawa was #3 with 3 of their own.
Ottawa 12 wins: The REDBLACKS broke the all-time Ottawa wins record with their 12-6 mark going one better than the 11-5 Rough Riders in 1978. They finished above .500 on the road (5-4) for the first time in 20 seasons (1983: 5-3 Rough Riders).
10+ wins over 2014: The REDBLACKS won 10 more games than last season – the second-highest year over year improvement in CFL history. That achievement was second only to the 1996 Argos club at +11.
QB matchup: The matchup at starting QB has Ottawa’s Henry Burris with 14 playoff and Grey Cup starts (Playoff 6-6, GC 1-1) against Mike Reilly’s two career post-season starts (1-1, both in Western Finals). Burris is 1-1 in his two previous Grey Cup starts, winning with Calgary in 2008 and losing with Hamilton in 2013.
First playoff win since 1982: The win by the REDBLACKS was the first by any Ottawa club since the 1982 Eastern Semi-Final victory over Hamilton. Before last week, Ottawa teams had lost 8 consecutive post-season games.
Resilient in the East Final: The REDBLACKS won last week despite a total of 5 lead changes in the game. They trailed 3-0 off the top, 10-7 after the 1st Quarter, and 17-14 late in the 1st half. Ottawa broke a 28-28 tie with 1:11 to play to get to the Cup.
CFL Records for Completions: Ottawa recorded 499 pass completions in 2015 setting a new CFL team single-season record. The existing record was 495 by Toronto in 1998 and tied by Montreal in 2008. Individually this season, Henry Burris had 481 completions which was also a single-season high mark, two more than Ricky Ray’s total of 479 (2005).
Grey Cup Notes
No repeat Grey Cup winner yet again: The CFL has not had a club win the Grey Cup two years in a row since 2010 when Montreal defeated Saskatchewan 21-18. Since 1997, Montreal is the only team to repeat their previous year victory.
Stop the West: The REDBLACKS will be trying to prevent a third consecutive Western Grey Cup champion. No Division has won three straight times since the West from 2005 to 2008, and before that from 1992 to 1994 (Calgary, Edmonton and then BC).
Campbell & Jones Year #2: The most recent CFL head coaches to win the Grey Cup in his their second year … Corey Chamblin (2013), Marc Trestman (2009), Dave Ritchie (1994), Mike Riley (1988) and Bob O’Billovich (1983).
Player Highlights
Mike Reilly: This week will be just Reilly’s third-ever post-season start after this year and last years’ Western Final games versus Calgary. He now has a post-season record of 1-1 heading into the Grey Cup. He has one previous Grey Cup game on his resume – in 2011 for BC but did not see action in the game.
Mike Reilly II: Has now led the Eskimos to wins in 9 straight starts, something no Edmonton QB has done since Tracy Ham won 9 in a row across 1989-1990. Over the last 3 games of the regular season, Reilly produced three 300-yard games in a row with 7 TD passes, 1,017 yards and 27 completions for 2nd down conversions. That matched his career-best streak of 300-yard games. In the Western Final he passed for 370 yards making it four straight games of any kind with 300+ yards.
Derel Walker: Led all receivers averaging 92.5 yards per game reaching 1,110 in just 12 contests. He was honoured as the West Division’s Most Outstanding Rookie for 2015 – the first time that an Edmonton player has picked up the Division Award two years in a row (Dexter McCoil in 2014). Walker’s 92.5 yards per game is the 3rd-best in the last 10 seasons (2006-2015) behind only Jamel Richardson (104.5 yards per game, 2011) and Geroy Simon (102.1 yards per game in 2006).
Bowman & Walker: Adarius Bowman was the CFL’s most targeted receiver in the regular season with total 162 “targets” or 9.5 times per game. On a per game basis however, Derel Walker had even more getting 133 in 12 games (11.1 per game).
William Powell: The current #1 running back for Ottawa started the final 4 games of the regular season and had a major impact. Powell rushed for 392 yards on 66 carries (13 runs of 10+ yards) – #1 in the CFL over the final 4 weeks of the season (#2: Tyrell Sutton with 373). The REDBLACKS won all four games that he started and Powell added 12 catches for 102 yards in that span. In the East Final win over Hamilton, Powell led all rushers with 60 yards on 13 carries.
Henry Burris: Is the second oldest MOP winner ever (Damon Allen in 2005 was 42 years, 5 months and Burris is now 40 years, 6 months). Set a CFL record for most completions in one season with 481, and in one game with 45 (vs Montreal October 1st). Led Ottawa to the second greatest single-season turnaround in league history 10 more wins than in 2014. Become the third CFL QB to pass for more than 60,000 career yards behind only Anthony Calvillo and Allen, first Ottawa player to win the MOP since Tony Gabriel in 1978. Ninth player to ever win MOP Award multiple times.
Four at 1,000 yards: Ottawa had four receivers over 1,000 yards this season: Chris Williams (#3, 1,214), Greg Ellingson (#7, 1,061), Ernest Jackson (#9, 1,036) and Brad Sinopoli (#11, 1,035). Ellingson made 20 catches for 355 yards over the final 4 games to make into the 1000-yard group. Only Montreal in 2005 and 2004 has had four in one season. Ottawa had never before had even three 1,000-yard receivers in the same year.
