August 5, 2016

Berg vs. Ferg: Will Mike Reilly break the single-season passing record?

Johany Jutras/CFL.ca

Every week of the 2016 season, CFL.ca columnists Pat Steinberg and Marshall Ferguson will debate over one of the league’s most contentious storylines. In Week 7 we ask the question: will Mike Reilly break the single-season passing yards record?

Coming off a a Grey Cup Championship and an MVP performance last November, Mike Reilly was considered by many the pre-season favourite to be the league’s Most Outstanding Player in 2016. The Eskimos are 2-3 and there’s always a question of health when we talk about these things so early in the season, but so far the veteran pivot has played every bit the part as the league’s top gunslinger.

Five games into the season, Reilly is averaging 385.2 yards per game, putting him on pace for 6,934 passing yards over the span of an 18-game season. To put that into perspective, only five times has a quarterback eclipsed 6,000 passing yards while only four different pivots have done it (Doug Flutie did it twice). The record is 6,619 set by Flutie in 1991, yet here’s Reilly flirting with the notion of 7,000.

Caveat: It’s early. Many a time have players put themselves on record-setting pace through the first several games of the season. Most of the time regression to the mean kicks in.

On the other hand, though, the ingredients are there to make it work. For starters, Reilly can sling it, whether it’s to Adarius Bowman or Derel Walker — both receivers on pace to eclipse 2,000 receiving yards. Reilly and first-year head coach Jason Maas have found instant chemistry as a coach-quarterback duo.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Eskimos have struggled to find their way offensively, allowing 32.8 points per game — the perfect conditions for a gifted offensive team to put up gaudy numbers.

So at this point we have to ask: Is a record-breaking season from Mike Reilly out of the realm of possibility? Are we really that crazy?

Steinberg and Ferguson debate in the latest Berg vs. Ferg.

BERG VS. FERG: WEEK 6 RESULTS

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TOTAL

Steinberg – 696 (68%)

Ferguson – 324 (32%)

Steinberg – 231 (37%)

Ferguson – 393 (63%)

Steinberg – 927 (56%)

Ferguson – 717 (44%)

Johany Jutras/CFL.ca

Darian Durant prepares for Thursday night’s game in Calgary (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

Last week, Berg and Ferg debated over whether Darian Durant will be the Riders’ QB in 2017. 57 per cent sided with Steinberg that he will be.

» View Week 6 Berg vs. Ferg

FERG (1-1): ‘THINGS HAPPEN’

Marshall_Ferguson_2016

Marshall Ferguson, CFL.ca
@TSN_Marsh

Mike Reilly is as good as they come in the CFL. I don’t want folks in Edmonton or across this country to take two of my first three Berg vs. Ferg articles as anti-Reilly rhetoric, because it’s not.

When I first saw Mike Reilly with the BC Lions I was not a fan. As a former quarterback who loves watching quarterback play at the highest level, the ‘shot-put release’ of the man in thirteen lacked appeal.

This game is not just about aesthetics, it’s about production and WHEN HEALTHY Mike Reilly is one of the more productive quarterbacks in the CFL. So why argue against his passing of a single season record?

Things happen.

I don’t know how to put it any more succinctly. Year after year there is a player with great opportunity to set an all-time mark and while records are certainly set to be broken, the probability of smooth sailing for the duration of an 18-week CFL season is highly unlikely.

Will the Esks win in Week 7?
» Watch the CFL Pick ‘Em Primer

Last year was a great example of that. Reilly and the Eskimos were ready to compete in the CFL’s West Division for a Grey Cup berth and WHAM.

Cleyon Laing goes slamming into Reilly’s legs, dramatically altering the regular season progression of an Eskimos offence which would end up having arguably the best receiver in 2015 with Adarius Bowman and the rookie of the year Derel Walker.

We all know how the story of the 2015 Eskimos ends but the idea that what you plan on week to week in the CFL is a sure thing is far from the truth.

Even if Reilly stays healthy we have seen chinks in the armour in a second half collapse to Hamilton and another home defeat at the hands of former Eskimos now Bombers quarterback Matt Nichols.

The Eskimos offence can put points up with the best of them when rolling, but rolling that consistently for 18 weeks is basically unheard of.

Reilly will find his way through this current rut and continue to be one of the league’s best; he doesn’t need a single season mark to validate this season and I do not believe he will reach the milestone.

 

BERG (1-1): RAREFIED AIR

Pat_Steinberg_2016

Pat Steinberg, CFL.ca
@Fan960Steinberg

I honestly don’t think it’s out of the question to think Mike Reilly could flirt with Doug Flutie’s single-season passing record. The 25-year-old record has stood since 1991 when Flutie passed for an incredible 6,619 yards. Usually I’d say breaking a record no one has come within 300 yards of for more than two decades is a pipe dream. In Reilly’s case, though, I think there’s a realistic hope for two different reasons.

First, Reilly has the weapons to help him approach Flutie’s lofty mark. Through six weeks and five games this season, the Eskimos boast two of the CFL’s top three receivers as part of a very formidable trio. That trio consists of Adarius Bowman (the league’s best receiver, right Marshall?), Derel Walker, and Cory Watson who all have the ability to bust a game wide open on any given pass.

Reilly needs to average 361 passing yards per game to reach Flutie’s record (he’s averaging 385 through five games); that receiving trio will be instrumental in helping him get there.

2016 By the Numbers: Mike Reilly

COMP ATT YARDS TD INT
CURRENT 147 207 1,926 11 3
ON PACE 529 745 6,934 40 11

 

The Eskimos also don’t have a choice but to put up points right now, which puts Reilly in a unique situation. Edmonton’s defence is a work in progress, but right now it’s allowing far too much. That has put the Eskimos in high-scoring games where Reilly needs to air the ball out.

In their most recent game, the Eskimos fell behind early and were forced to pass the ball even more. I can see those circumstances continuing to play out, at least for the next little while.

Flutie’s record has stood for 25 years for a reason. It’s a mind-blowing total, even when you factor in how much our game relies on the pass. But knowing the quarterback Reilly is, the weapons he has at his disposal and the situation his team is in, I think he can be in rarefied air come October and November.

DON’T SIT ON THE FENCE!

While both sides are pretty convincing, someone’s got to break a 1-1 deadlock. Whose argument convinced you the most?

You can vote for this week’s winner both on CFL.ca and Twitter. Meanwhile, continue the conversation by tweeting @Fan960Steinberg and @TSN_Marsh. While the discussion never ends, polls close on Sunday night at 11:59 p.m ET.

The winner will be revealed on social and in the following week’s Berg vs. Ferg.

Fan Poll
Berg vs. Ferg: Will Reilly break Flutie's record?
Steinberg: Yes
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Ferguson: No
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