Calgary, Hamilton ahead of the pack as CFL Simulation returns

TORONTO — With Mark’s Labour Day Weekend just around the corner, we look to the CFL Simulation, a computer model used to calculate the probabilities of any CFL team finishing first in its division, making it to the Grey Cup or even winning it all, for the rest of 2016.

So far, it looks like the most likely matchup, at 66.66 per cent, is the Hamilton Tiger-Cats meeting the Calgary Stampeders in the 104th Grey Cup Championship. These two teams met already this season in Week 10 with Bo Levi Mitchell and his Stampeders coming out on top. But don’t let the results of that game get you down on the Ticats — Zach Collaros has taken no time to return to his MOP-calibre form and the Ticats’ defence remains one of the best in the league.

RELATED:
» Buy: Tickets
» View: Full League Standings
» View: Schedule

Since slotting into the lineup, Matt Nichols is undefeated, leading his team to a four game winning streak (CFL.ca)

The Calgary Stampeders have proven so far in 2016 that they’re the ones to beat in the CFL. With a six game winning streak and a record of 7-1-1 heading into Week 11, the Stamps have yet to find a team that can stop them since Week 1. Calgary holds the best projection to win the Grey Cup at 52.9 per cent.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have emerged as a force to be reckoned with. The probability of the Bombers finishing first in the West (6.58 per cent) and appearing in the Grey Cup (23.73 per cent) is higher than the BC Lions’ and the reigning Grey Cup Champions’ in Edmonton.

After their hot start to the season with Trevor Harris under centre, the Ottawa REDBLACKS appeared to be on pace to make their second-straight Grey Cup appearance. Now, after losing four of their last five, the REDBLACKS hold just a 1.50 per cent chance of making it all the way. Ottawa sits at the top of the East Division, and with Harris back in the huddle, they very well could be a contender over the next few weeks.

Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.