CFL Simulation: Battle of Alberta in the Grey Cup?

TORONTO — It could be a Battle of Alberta in the 104th Grey Cup.

With the divisional crossover taken into account, the Edmonton Eskimos chances of appearing in the Grey Cup are at 11.63%. According to CFL Simulation, their opponent in the championship game is likely to be their provincial rivals, the Calgary Stampeders, as the crossover will put the Eskimos in the East Division when the playoffs start.

An all-West Division matchup in November is the third most likely scenario at 8.78%, behind the second most likely of Ottawa versus Calgary at 33.40%.

The most likely final showdown is still Calgary taking on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, but the chances of that happening dropped significantly this week from 60.55% to 38.32%.

After winning their 10th game in a row – and extending their unbeaten streak to 12 – the Stamps probability of finishing first in the West crept up to 99.87%. While Ottawa is now the most likely to finish first in the East leaping from 18.26% last week to 50.23%.

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After Week 14, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are the second most likely team to win the Grey Cup (CFL.ca)

Despite losing to the Tiger-Cats in Week 14, the Montreal Alouettes chances of appearing in the Grey Cup went up. Last week, the Als sat at a 0.77% of making it all the way and this week they’ve jumped over Toronto and now have a 0.82% chance.

The Bombers are now the second most likely team to win the Grey Cup this year, leaping over the Ticats for that spot. Last week, Winnipeg’s probability of hoisting the Cup were at 6.15% and they’ve increased to 10.57% this week. Not very surprising considering the Bombers are a team that was cruising on a seven game winning streak before having it snapped by the best team in the CFL.

Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.