CFL Simulation: A coin flip for the East?

TORONTO — The winner of the East Division is just a coin flip away.

Well, not literally, but the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Ottawa REDBLACKS are anyone’s guess as to which one will come out on top of the division.

The REDBLACKS have a 50.73 per cent chance of winning the East crown, according to CFL Simulation. The Ticats sit at 49.27 per cent.

Hamilton sits a half-game behind the REDBLACKS as they plays their final two games at Tim Hortons Field while Ottawa splits a home-and-home with the Bombers to finish the regular season.

With their double overtime victory over the REDBLACKS last week, the Ticats’ chances of making it to the final showdown for the third time in four years rose from 14.91% to 33.04%. Hamilton’s chances of winning the 104th Grey Cup also jumped from 1.15% to 4.02%.

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Will the 104 Grey Cup be a Battle of Alberta? (CFL.ca)

According to the simulator, the most likely Grey Cup matchup is the Battle of Alberta – Edmonton versus Calgary – at 28.51%, jumping up from 23.06% last week. The simulator also says that the REDBLACKS taking on the Stampeders (25.63%) and Hamilton matching up against Calgary (27.63%) are just as likely.

Meanwhile, the Bombers chances of appearing at the final game in November rose from 8.09% to 9.05% this week. And their chances of winning? Up from 4.79% to 6.08%.

Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.