October 31, 2016

Steinberg’s MMQB: Down to the wire

Johany Jutras/CFL.ca

Just because all six of the CFL’s 2016 playoff berths have been decided for a couple weeks now doesn’t mean we’re short of meaningful games. Week 19 of the season gave us three huge games in deciding post-season seeding, which sets up a trio of huge games to finish off the 2016 campaign this weekend.

BC, Winnipeg and Edmonton still have lots decide amongst one another despite playing three different opponents starting on Friday. I have my ideas as to how this is all going to shake out, so let’s see if it meshes with where you’re at right now.

Fight to the end

Before we handicap this fight to the finish, let’s break down the particulars, starting with the Lions. BC has the simplest clinching scenario because with a win over the Riders in Week 20 the Lions would clinch second in their division and thus a home date in the Western Semi-Final.

The situations for Winnipeg and Edmonton are intertwined, and a little more complicated. If the Bombers win Friday in Ottawa, they’ll clinch third in the West. If Winnipeg wins and BC loses, though, it’ll be the Bombers hosting the Western Semi-Final against BC.

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Greg_Ellingson_2016

The Bombers’ loss to Ottawa makes for what could be a photo finish in Week 20 (The Canadian Press)

So what about Edmonton, then? Well, the Eskimos are going to finish third, but we’re just not sure which division they’re going to finish third in. If Edmonton loses its season finale against Toronto, it’ll automatically cross over to the East Division. The Eskimos can still finish third in the West, though, but only if they win and if Winnipeg loses. In that scenario, the Bombers would cross over while Edmonton would secure third in the West.

It’s somewhat complicated because of tiebreakers, but I’ll try to simplify it. A Lions win clinches home field but a loss leaves the door open for Winnipeg. A Bombers win clinches third in the West but a loss leaves the door open for Edmonton. An Eskimos win leaves things potentially up in the air but where they finish isn’t totally in their control.

How does this all shake out then? Well, first off, I like the Lions at home on Saturday night. If things aren’t already decided by kickoff of that game, I think BC gets the job done against the Riders to clinch a home playoff date. BC handled Saskatchewan this weekend and will have everything to play for, and has looked really good in its last two wins. Technically the Lions are in the driver’s seat, and I think they drive this thing home if the situation dictates they have to.

If it indeed comes down to Edmonton and Winnipeg in a straight fight, I like the defending Grey Cup Champs to finish on top. The Eskimos finish the season at home to a listless Argos team that has lost six straight games and is coming off a bye week. Edmonton, on the other hand, is playing its best football of the season and has won four of its last five. It would be a big shock if the Esks didn’t finish out the year with a solid performance.

The Bombers are in a tougher spot, though. They kick the week off Friday in Ottawa against a team looking to enter the post-season with some momentum. We’re not sure what the REDBLACKS’ lineup is going to look like, but playing in their house is a tough proposition. That’s not to say the Bombers won’t win; it’s just that I feel a little better about Edmonton’s prospects in Week 20.

Regardless of whether my prognostication is on the mark or complete bunk, I love the fact so much is still up for grabs in the West Division. Three teams are tussling for really important playoff positioning and, in two cases, a home playoff date. Sure, actual playoff spots aren’t up for grabs in the final weekend of the season, but I’m 100 per cent confident saying what we have is just as good.

Now we wait

Well, the Calgary Stampeders weren’t able to make their outstanding 2016 campaign an historic one. The Stamps fell 17-8 in Montreal to finish off the season 15-2-1 and now they head into a pair of bye weeks before the Western Final on Nov. 20. Calgary opted to rest or limit a number of its top players for the season finale. While the Stamps lost on Sunday, we won’t know for about three weeks whether they’ve made the right decision.

In this week’s Berg vs. Ferg, we debated whether the Stampeders should have rested their top players or not. My take was ‘no’ because they needed the reps. Thanks to a Week 20 bye, Calgary now has 20 days off between games. Furthermore, it’ll end up being 40 days between truly meaningful games because the Stamps clinched the West Division in Week 16.


BUY WEEK 20 TICKETSCFL/Peter McCabe

» Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET: Winnipeg at Ottawa
» Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET: Montreal at Hamilton

» Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET: Toronto at Edmonton

» Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET: Saskatchewan at BC


I felt that with such a long stretch without something on the line, the team needed to go into its season-ending break with some meaningful reps under its belt. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and receiver Marquay McDaniel didn’t play while running back Jerome Messam was intentionally limited to just six touches. I was hoping to see those players, and a few others, used more.

Of course, none of that is intended to be critical of Head Coach Dave Dickenson, because virtually every one of his decisions has worked out this season. I’m fully aware he knows infinitely more about the game than I do. However, with a finger pointed at me asking what I’d do, I would have used my key players a little more.

The crazy thing about all of this is there’s really no way in determining if Dickenson played this wrong. If Calgary wins the Grey Cup, well, then of course he’s played things the right way. But if the Stampeders lose in the Western Final, who knows if tough Week 20 decisions will have played a part or not.

We do know, however, the Stampeders were far and away the best team in 2016. We also know their forthcoming 20-day break isn’t overly unique; the Eskimos traveled the same path one year ago en route to a Grey Cup title.

Dickenson had a plan going into this weekend and you can be sure he has a plan to manage his group for the next three weeks. Until then, all anyone in red and white can do is wait.

Farewell

While the result on the football field left a lot to be desired, the Riders sure did send off Taylor Field/Mosaic Stadium in style. As we all know, we said goodbye to one of the most iconic buildings in the country this weekend and it brought back great memories for almost every CFL fan, whether you like or despise the team that wears green.

For me, I’ll remember one thing about Mosaic more than anything else: the noise. It truly was its own unique sound. The crowd at Taylor Field was absolutely loud and intimidating, but it went beyond that. While playing a role in the outcomes of games on a regular basis, it also had a charm that is very hard to describe.

Images: The best of Week 19

I think it was the combination of a loud, knowledgeable crowd combined with all those noisemakers. You don’t hear cowbells, rattlers, and police sirens anywhere else when an opposing team is on offence.

It was so recognizable for me that I would know exactly where a game was being played by ear alone. I’m really not sure there is a football stadium in all of North America that can claim the same thing. Somehow, the sound was campy, friendly, loud, intimidating and menacing all at the same time and I loved it.

As the Riders move into their new crown jewel of a stadium in Regina, they’ll be able to create brand new traditions and we’ll get used to all new characteristics. I’m extremely excited to see what football is like at New Mosaic Stadium but that doesn’t mean we can’t be nostalgic about the old one.

Quick hits

Perhaps they didn’t do it in as much style as a year ago, but the Ottawa REDBLACKS have clinched the East Division for a second straight year. That does not surprise me at all, because I’ve felt they were the East Division’s best team all year long. The way they clinched, however, is a little bit more surprising.

After Trevor Harris replaced Henry Burris early this season, I didn’t expect to see the latter back for performance reasons after the former had played so well. I also didn’t see Ottawa losing four of seven games on its way to finishing on top of their division. It may not be as pretty as one year ago, but our nation’s capital will be hosting the Eastern Final and that’s still something.

Finally, I just wanted to recognize Mike Reilly for a second. Edmonton’s quarterback isn’t going to hit 6,000 yards or break any records this season, but he’s almost certainly going to finish with the best passing totals in more than a decade.

At 5,554 yards right now with one game remaining, Reilly is going to finish with the highest passing totals since Anthony Calvillo completed the 2004 season with 6,041 yards. It’s not historic, but it’s significant; it’s been 12 years since we’ve seen a season like this from a quarterback.