November 22, 2016

Numbers Don’t Lie: 3 trends that could decide the Grey Cup

CFL.ca

TORONTO — There’s a reason they play the game.

Yes, it’s that time of year again: Grey Cup week. The 104th Grey Cup presented by Shaw is close and this year the Ottawa REDBLACKS and Calgary Stampeders will play for the Canadian Football League’s most prestigious honour.

The Stamps have been determined as the favourite to win after a 15-2-1 season and a blowout win over the BC Lions in the Western Final — especially when compared to Ottawa and its 8-9-1 record this season. And, as probably expected, in 16 seasons dating back to the year 2000, 12 out of 16 times the team with the better record won the Grey Cup (75 per cent of the time).

However, despite the discrepancy between records, these two teams may be closer than they appear, at least statistically.

We’ll let the numbers tell the story as the top team from the East and the top team from the West get set to clash:

1. Who can finish the job?

The Headline: REDBLACKS must close the deal

The Number: 48.3 (Ottawa’s touchdown percentage on red zone attempts, second-last in the CFL)

Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca

REDBLACKS running back Kienan LaFrance during the Eastern Final (Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca)

The Ottawa REDBLACKS rank second in the CFL in total yards, first in passing yards and sixth in total points. Something here doesn’t add up.

While Jaime Elizondo’s offence has been one of the league’s most potent this season, lack of finish has held that unit back from joining the nation’s elite. Ottawa’s 48.3 per cent scoring efficiency on red zone opportunities ranks eighth in the league as finishing drives has not been the team’s strong suit.

It’s part of the reason the Stampeders have averaged 5.6 more points per game than the REDBLACKS (32.6 per game for Calgary compared to 27.0 for Ottawa) despite Ottawa averaging more yards.

While Ottawa has failed to score a touchdown in more than half of its red zone opportunities, the Stampeders rank third in the league with a 57.8 per cent success rate.

Both teams scored on half of their red zone attempts in the Division Finals.

Turnovers, penalties and red zone efficiency are always definite indicators when it comes to winning games. In this case, if Ottawa can finish on its red zone opportunities, the chance for the upset increases.

2. The ground game is key

The Headline: Unstoppable force meets immovable object

The Number: 5.8 (yards per carry for Jerome Messam, the second-highest among starting running backs)

The Canadian Press

Jerome Messam celebrates with family following his team’s Western Final win (The Canadian Press)

The Stampeders ranked second in the CFL with an average of 7.1 yards on first down, obviously a major advantage when it comes to sustaining drives. Success in the run game is a big reason why.

Jerome Messam is a workhorse and powered the league’s third-ranked rushing offence and it’s fair to say he’s the key to Calgary’s success on that side of the football.

On the other hand, the REDBLACKS’ defensive line is a strength, particularly those up inside. While the Stamps averaged 96.9 rushing yards per game (third), Ottawa allowed only 78.3 rushing yards per game (also third in the CFL). Add Cleyon Laing to the equation and you have a powerful defensive front in the nation’s capital.

We don’t know who wins the battle between Ottawa’s D-line and Calgary’s ground game but we’re certain it’ll have a significant impact on the outcome of the game. After all, Ottawa holding John White to 66 rushing yards on 12 carries played a major role in the REDBLACKS’ Eastern Final win.

What happens when the unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We’ll find out on Sunday.

3. Pivot point

The Headline: Generational greats collide

The Number: 229 (career starts for Henry Burris)

 

Henry_Burris_2016_GC_1

How will Sunday’s Grey Cup affect the legacy of Smilin’ Hank? (The Canadian Press)

Two greats of their own generation collide on Sunday, but which one wins out?

It’s cliche, sure, but the play of the pivots will go a great distance in determining who holds the Grey Cup high above head at the night’s end.

Henry Burris is one of the best ever, currently sitting third on the all-time passing yards list behind only Anthony Calvillo and Damon Allen. He’s thrown for 379 touchdown passes and 63,227 yards in 229 starts — and there’s a chance Sunday’s could be his last.

While Burris is playing some of the best football of his career, he’s 41 years old and Bo Levi Mitchell is considered the ‘now’. Mitchell has a career winning percentage of .860 (43-7-1) and at age 26 has already won a Grey Cup and a Grey Cup MVP and is on the verge of potentially winning a Most Outstanding Player.

Both are big-game players and two of the games brightest starts, and one has a chance to drastically impact his legacy for the better.

Mitchell’s just getting started and if Burris wins, well, there’s a chance he goes out on top.