TORONTO — A computer simulation model is used to calculate the probabilities of any CFL team finishing first in its division.
The model considers the following: • Each team’s current win-loss record • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game) • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.