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January 27, 2017

Bombers’ OC diving deep in the numbers

Winnipeg Blue Bombers offensive coordinator Paul LaPolice during the pre-season game at TD Place in Ottawa, ON on Monday June 13, 2016. (Photo: Johany Jutras)

Paul LaPolice plops into the chair behind the desk in his office, inviting a guest to sit down opposite.

It is a space strewn with paperwork and cluttered by two laptops and a printer. Within an arm’s length is a bookshelf full of manuals and coaching bios, and nearby is a white board featuring the Xs and Os scribblings of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers offensive coordinator.

And pinned up on the wall above his desk are a half dozen reports ranging in subject from the ‘Scramble Report’ to ‘Run-Game Stats’, ‘Interception Report’ and ‘Scoring Zone Report.’

Nichols LaPolice

Matt Nichols (left) and Paul LaPolice (right) go into details during a practice in 2016 (BlueBombers.com)

This is a snapshot of what football coaches do in the off-season: They break down film, they tinker with or rewrite playbooks. They look for flaws in what they did schematically and then they look for answers.

And through all this they impatiently wait to get back on the field with players, whether it be at a free agent or spring camp, or especially with the opening of main training camp.

Put it this way, the popular ‘#IsItJuneYet?’ hashtag the CFL and its fans use was probably started by a coach.

But back to LaPolice and what he and quarterbacks coach Buck Pierce are up to during the last week in January…

“People might not be aware that we do any of this,” LaPolice explains.

“They think it’s like Craig T. Nelson and Dauber and those guys from the old show ‘Coach.’ Remember that show? Some people think that’s what we do all day.”

(A scene from the comedy series, ‘Coach’… )

Minnesota State head coach Hayden Fox is sitting at his desk. So too, is Michael ‘Dauber’ Dybinski, when Luther Van Dam – the quirky, old assistant played by Jerry Van Dyke – bursts into the office waving his arms…

‘Dauber… you used to be the biggest guy we had. I just saw 10 guys got feet bigger than you. I’m just wondering where it all ends…

“I mean, if people keep getting bigger then, you know, houses gotta get bigger, which means towns are gonna get bigger. I mean, it just doesn’t stop.

“And we’re gonna have to FEED these giants! Where are we gonna get the food?! We’re not gonna get the food because there’s not going to be any land to grow the food ON!

“Just huge people running around looking for somethin’ to eat! It means it’s just a matter of time before people start eatin’ each other. Hey, that only leads to one thing: people just keep eatin’ until there’s just one person left – a 30-to-40 foot fat guy.’

Coach Fox rises from his desk, saying: ‘I’m going to the film room to see some tapes.’

Van Dam: ‘Well, evidently you’re not as concerned about this as I am.’

“I loved that show,” said LaPolice, grinning. “But that’s not what we do all day.”

“I know, for example, we were terrible on our counter play so let’s not run counter. Or, we can evaluate why we were bad at the counter and fix it. That’s invaluable.”

Paul LaPolice on the value of statistics

Now, analytics and advanced statistics have become all the rage in hockey – and especially in the National Hockey League – over the last five to 10 years. It’s about puck possession numbers, shooting percentages, zone starts and score-adjusted metrics. And often, it’s about how this new-age thinking is adopted by the traditionally old-school approach taken by veteran hockey types.

Football has its analytics too, although they are much more black and white than something like possession numbers because the game is a lot more start-and-stop than a fluid sport like hockey.

Just for the record, LaPolice doesn’t call any of what he has at his fingertips ‘analytics’ or ‘fancy stats.’ It’s just information.

And the more information he has, the better.

“I know some people don’t like statistics, but it’s a measurable for us. You have to have measurables,” said LaPolice. “You’ll look at a particular run play, for example, and say ‘this was not an efficient run statistically…’ Then you look at the video and determine that we’re not good at that and make a decision based on the data now that you have the facts.

“You can do whatever you want on stats, but I want the information. I know, for example, we were terrible on our counter play so let’s not run counter. Or, we can evaluate why we were bad at the counter and fix it. That’s invaluable.”

Winnipeg Blue Bombers offensive coordinator Paul LaPolice during the game against the Calgary Stampeders at McMahon stadium in Calgary, AB. Friday, July 1, 2016. (Photo: Johany Jutras)

Paul LaPolice guided the league’s sixth-ranked offence in his first year in Winnipeg (BlueBombers.com)

Here are examples of some of the information LaPolice, Pierce and assistant offensive line coach Marty Costello have pieced together, built off the CFL’s main stats report, since the 2016 season concluded:

Scoring by Field Zone Report:

What it is: A look at how the offence faired based on where the drive started on the field and provide a scoring percentage based on each area.

Notable: The Bombers led the CFL in touchdowns on drives in which they began between their own one-yard line and 20-yard line with three touchdowns in 26 possessions (12 per cent). In the red zone: from the opponents’ 20-yard line and in, the Bombers had a 50 per cent TD rate with three touchdowns in six possessions. The CFL average was 59 per cent (Hamilton was first at 71 per cent).

The Run Game Report:

What it is: Breaking down the club’s rushing totals from last year; how many runs were negative and why; how efficient those runs were based on seven different position groups (double tight-end, base, etc) and how many ‘efficient’ runs they had (runs for five yards, a first down or a touchdown).

The report also analyzes the run by down and distance and calculates the net efficiency of runs.

Notable: The Bombers had 10 plays of 20-yards-plus runs in 2016 – nine came on a run, the other came on a Weston Dressler fake field-goal run. Eight of those drives featuring 20-yard runs ended in points; four with touchdowns, four with field goals.

Andrew Harris

Running back Andrew Harris generated eight ‘big plays’ for the Bombers in 2016 (BlueBombers.com)

Big Play Report:

What it is: The CFL stats department has determined that any run of 20-yards or more and any pass of 30-yards or more is considered a ‘big play.’

Notable: The Bombers had 37 big plays last year (10 runs, 27 passes). Dressler and Andrew Harris led the team with eight each.

Turnover Margin Report:

What it is: pretty much self-explanatory – a look at the Bombers turnovers and the importance of winning the turnover battle. Last year CFL teams who finished on the plus side of the turnover ratio won 87 per cent of those games.

Winnipeg’s +29 turnover ratio was best in the CFL. They had just seven fumbles, fewest in the league and 13 interceptions – sixth in the CFL.

The Bombers were also 0-5 last year when losing the turnover ratio.

LaPolice: “We preach ball security here and so something like that hits you in the face. You have to get them to buy in with what you’re doing.”

Winnipeg Blue Bombers offensive coordinator Paul LaPolice, Dominique Davis (6), Julian Feoli-Gudino (83) during the pre-season game at TD Place in Ottawa, ON on Monday June 13, 2016. (Photo: Johany Jutras)

Paul LaPolice (middle) sits with Dominique Davis (left) and Juilan Feoli-Gudino during a game in 2016 (right)

Now, having this information is one thing. It’s quite another to use it effectively. To that end, LaPolice was asked about how all this might influence his play calling as the Bombers offensive coordinator.

“Something I like as a play caller is to look at your success rate at the end of the year,” he said. “You look at it and you say, ‘Are you kidding me? We were that bad on that pass play?’

“But yesterday Buck and I did throw out two concepts that were in our playbook. We just said we weren’t going to do that anymore after watching the tape. We didn’t call it enough and we think there’s other ways to do the same thing.”

The Bombers offensive staff has also broken down its play calls to determine the completion percentage and yardage total, TDs, interceptions, dropped passes, sacks, scrambles and penalties each generated.

Again, it’s about the more they know…

“You may call something that has a good completion percentage, but how many times on second down did it convert?” said LaPolice. “It’s one thing to say this was a great play for us, but did it get first downs when it was called on second down? We had one play that we looked at yesterday that was 11 for 11 on second down. That’s incredible.

“You know what’s funny about all this?” LaPolice added. “I’m terrible at math. Just horrible. But these stats are important to us and to what we do.”