April 11, 2017

Ferguson: Speed-size combo crucial for receivers

Johany Jutras/CFL.ca

Every GM, coach and scout in Regina a couple weeks ago was looking for the perfect combination of all traits that make a football player great in the CFL. Size, speed, smarts, quickness, power to name a few.

I saw a graphic similar to this after the NFL Combine and – like everything else I’m doing this Spring – couldn’t figure out why anybody from a major network in Canada hasn’t taken a deep dive on things like this for CFL Draft curiosity, so I did.

I averaged the height and weight percentiles of each receiver to get a ‘size’ percentile then graphed it against the 40-yard percentiles of each receiver in the 2017 draft from all regional and national combines:

Percentiles are judged on a scale of 0-100 just like in school and determined by running the 2017 draft class data against the same data of all receivers to participate in a CFL combine since 2006.

What I ended up getting was essentially four classes of receiver in the 2017 draft.

In the top left we have the oversize slotback types who ran anywhere from SLOW (Ellenberger) to mediocre (Auclair). All of this is important to put in context by saying the big bodied receivers are being judged against every receiver since 2006, so we shouldn’t expect the top left quadrant to blow away any speed records. 

This actually makes Laval’s Antony Auclair and his 39th percentile 40-yard dash all that much more impressive when considering he is carrying around a 254-pound frame. That’s 55 pounds heavier than the average CFL combine receiver since 2006.

In the bottom left quadrant we have smaller receivers who did not run what you would hope for a player of their size. It’s no coincidence all of these players were regional and not national invitees. The combination of a slow 40 yard dash and comparatively small frame is not one for success. 

MORE ON THE CFL DRAFT
» For Comparison’s Sake: Projecting Nate Behar
» Stock Assessment: Top receivers justify the hype
» Combine Rewind: Watch it in its entirety

Arthur Ward/CFL.ca

Nate Behar’s combination of size and speed puts him among the elite (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

With that said, I believe two of the top five best route runners in this draft are Carleton’s Kyle Van Wynsberghe and Alberta’s Jimmy Ralph. Both players whose 40s do not display their lethal on-field capabilities.

In the bottom right we have the metaphorical sweet spot on a baseball bat. Players big enough to handle their business but fast enough to turn an eye or two during testing. This quadrant includes a four-pack of Canada West sleeper picks as well as my second-rated receiver, Carleton’s Nate Behar.

Finally, in the top right you have what every evaluator in Regina was there to find: size and speed. Top-rated receiver Danny Vandervoort is included here alongside a three pack of intriguing prospects: UBC Thunderbirds Alex Morrison, who showed a nice burst running routes at the national combine; Brantford, Ont. native and Mount Allison Mountie Dakota Brush; and Saskatchewan Huskies regional to national invitee Julan Lynch.

I’ll have another size vs. speed post on the defensive backs. Where oh where could Robert Woodson and Dondre Wright land on that…

For further analysis from Marshall Ferguson on the CFL Draft, visit MarshallFerguson.com.