June 1, 2017

Nye: ‘Flex’-ing your fantasy muscles

CFL.ca

CFL Fantasy is set up for you to make the right pick when it comes to the flex position.

You’re either going running back or receiver and from week to week.

So is it better to go three running backs or three receivers? Or what about the impact of return yards being thrown into the equation?

Here are some interesting numbers.

Only 23 times in 2016 did running backs have 100-yard rushing games, compared to receivers going over the century mark 101 times.

With 15 receivers going over 1,000 yards, 2016 was the year of the receiver (Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca)

But don’t let the lack of 100-yard rushers worry you too much. While running backs getting 100-yards rushing only happened 23 times, running backs were also big-time contributors in the passing game.

33 times running backs went over 100-yards when you combine their rushing and receiving yards. Andrew Harris was by far the most utilized in the offensive attack with nine games of combined 100 yards from scrimmage.

Now the obvious. There are eight starting running backs per week, while there are 36-plus starting receivers.

And playing the odds may be your thing. So going by last year’s numbers what enhances your chances of success at the flex position?

On average, five receivers per week went over the century mark, while 2.5 running backs did the same thing. With two running back spots already used, that doesn’t leave you with great odds of finding a third running back in a given week to go over the century mark, while you’d have a few more receivers who could have a big game.

In fantasy you need to maximize your odds of finding the big game and to me going with three receivers will do that better than three running backs.

Again. Matchups are going to be a major factor.

PAY ATTENTION TO TRENDS!

I’ll give you two examples of trends when trying to enhance finding a big game player and it often has to do with who the opposing defence is.

In the first half of the season, the Roughriders have up 11 100-yard games but only gave up six in the second half of the season. Their defence improved and playing people against Saskatchewan didn’t pay off in the second half as well as the first.

Now to the Argonauts’ defence that completely collapsed in the second half of the year, giving up 13 100-yard games, including five 100-yard rushing games against. If you weren’t playing the running back facing Toronto in the second half of the season, you were cheating yourself.


RELATED: CFL FANTASY IS HERE
» Play TSN CFL Fantasy
» CFL, TSN launch player-based fantasy
» Nye: New game puts fans in the GM chair


Oh, and speaking of the difference between the first half and the second half of the season: Running backs were scoring more points in fantasy football from September on as the temperatures cooled, while receivers were far more superior in the first half of the season.

You want proof? 23 running backs had 100 or more yards from scrimmage in the first half while receivers had 60. In the second half, 42 receivers had 100-yard games while 33 running backs cracked the century mark.

RETURN YARDS COULD BE GAME-BREAKERS

Now to the biggest factor that could weigh in on the flex position: the fact return yards come into the equation.

One point for every 25 return yards and six points for a return touchdown.

Stefan Logan, for example, had just 176 yards of offence but had over 2,500 return yards, which is the equivalent of a 1,000 yard season for a running back or receiver.

Don’t underestimate the power of the return man in CFL Fantasy! Especially when you can find a return specialist like Logan, Chris Rainey, Roy Finch or Brandon Banks. Rainey and Banks have added value as they also contribute some yards on offence.

Brandon Banks could see his value increased thanks to his role in the return game (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

Here is the other factor with going with a return man as your specialist. Who are they playing? Will they play a team struggling on offence and have the potential for a lot of punt return yards? Even better, are they taking on team whose offence is on fire and will be kicking off a bunch?

Kick returns average about 10-yards better than punt returns, though there are usually more punts than kickoffs in a game.

While a return man getting you a huge game will be rare, they are guaranteed points. And if a player starts splitting time between offence and the return game that is an added bonus!

Another flex factor is budget!

With a $40,000 cap each week, being able to find someone who may be worth only $2,500 but making their debut in a decent matchup could put you ahead of your friends finding that diamond in the rough before their cap value increases.

Bottom line, there aren’t a lack of strategies to keep you thinking while you fill out your roster every week!