July 26, 2017

Weekly Predictor: No upset this time

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The Edmonton Eskimos are the only undefeated team left in the CFL. According to Jamie Nye, that could come to an end in Week 6.

The Esks will be in tough against a surging BC Lions squad led by the resurgent Travis Lulay. Three out of four picks this week were made with low confidence, setting the stage for a number of close matchups.

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Here’s Nye with his picks for Week 6.

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Montreal at Winnipeg
Thursday | 8:30 p.m. ET

Durant said this week that he was beginning to find chemistry with his new receivers (Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca)

Simply put, three of four games this weeks are very difficult to predict because the team’s match up so well with each other. In this one you have a defence that doesn’t give up a lot of point against one that does, but on the flip side the offences have a similar discrepancy.

The Alouettes’ concern is turnovers. They are last in the league with a minus-five turnover ratio this season. The Bombers’ two losses this season have been to Calgary and BC, which are two of the top teams in the league. Matt Nichols is also hasn’t picked up where he left off last year, though started to pick it up last week. Darian Durant is also not at the top of his game with his new team.

The West is against dominating the inter-divisional games by nine wins to two. The Alouettes have the only wins for the East and I’m going to risk it and give them a third.

PICK: MONTREAL (10% confident)


BC at Edmonton
Friday | 9:30 p.m. ET

Lulay has thrown for over 400 yards in his last two games since replacing the injured Jonathon Jennings (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

The game of the week! Good friends from their days in BC, Travis Lulay and Mike Reilly, may just put on an air show for the fans at Commonwealth Stadium on Friday night.

One of the weaknesses for the Eskimos is the run defence and they take on Jeremiah Johnson and the BC Lions. Johnson has scored a touchdown in every game this season and the Lions could own the clock if they are able to establish Johnson early. Mike Reilly hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year and is creating some chemistry with other receivers with Adarius Bowman out of the lineup last week.

I think we see BC hand Edmonton the first loss of the season.

PICK: BC (25% confident)


Toronto at Saskatchewan
Saturday | 6:30 p.m. ET

Glenn and the Riders are looking for a bounce back performance after losing to the Stamps 27-10 last week (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)

Head Coach Chris Jones has already put an end to any talk that the Riders get the advantage with the Argonauts on a short week. The numbers just don’t show that they do.

Toronto learned that with a close win over the weary Ottawa REDBLACKS on Monday. Corey Chamblin is back in Saskatchewan for the first time since being fired by the team as head coach in 2015. Chamblin’s defence in Toronto is filling the stat sheet with sacks and turnovers. Ricky Ray is piling up yards through the air but the Riders give up the second fewest yards passing.

The Riders need to be much better protecting Kevin Glenn after last week’s debacle in Calgary, especially with the aforementioned Toronto defence.

I’m picking the Riders in another tight game and the fact they’ve played much better football at home.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN (33% confident)


Hamilton at Calgary
Saturday | 9:30 p.m. ET

Nye has close to full confidence that the Ticats will start the season 0-5 (Mark Taylor/The Canadian Press)

The three previous games all have matchups with teams that look pretty even on paper. This one does not.

The Tiger-Cats couldn’t have asked for a worse game to try to land their first win.

Nobody has beaten the Stampeders in Calgary for quite some time and I’m not going to go with a major upset here.

PICK: CALGARY (99% confident)


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POS PLAYER TEAM AVG POINTS SALARY
QB Bo Levi Mitchell HAM@CGY 22.9 $10,800
RB Jeremiah Johnson BC@EDM 21.4 $7,600
WR Bryant Mitchell BC@EDM 20.6 $4,000
WR Ernest Jackson MTL@WPG 11.7 $6,900
FLEX Andrew Harris MTL@WPG 19.0 $7,500
FLEX DaVaris Daniels HAM@CGY 10.9 $7,100
DST Stampeders HAM@CGY 11.3 $5,300

 

I’m going Stampeder heavy this week because of the favourable home matchup against the winless Tiger-Cats.

Bo Levi Mitchell is ready to break out. He nearly did against Saskatchewan but missed a few passes. I think he makes those throws this week and DaVaris Daniels has his biggest game of the season. Going with the Stampeders defence is a little steep price to pay but with the lowest scoring team coming in and Charleston Hughes back in the lineup and looking at all-star calibre, the points may match the pay.

Jeremiah Johnson is going up against the Eskimos, who allow the most rushing yards in the league. Johnson continues to find the end zone on a weekly basis and is becoming a weekly play with his 21 point average.

With Adarius Bowman out of the lineup, it was interesting to see where the targets went for the Eskimo offence. Well they went to Bryant Mitchell. In what could be a high-scoring game, going to ride a hot hand in Mitchell who showed well in the pre-season as well.

Ernest Jackson and Darian Durant are finally starting to find some chemistry and that spells doom for the opposing secondary. We all knew it would happen sooner or later and I believe Jackson will start to threatening the century mark and the end zone more often than not the rest of the way.

Back to back weeks over 20 points for Andrew Harris as the Bombers running back is getting healthier from where he started the season. The more he’s utilized in the offence, the better for the team. Watch for him to be a big part of the Bombers against the stingy Alouettes this week.