The Canadian Press
Luke Tasker is considered by many in CFL circles, including yours truly, to be one of the best receivers in the league.
Not possession receiver, not consistent receiver. Just receiver.
There is no need to qualify what Luke does or how he does it but if you’d like to, he is still believed to be one of the best at his specific version of the receiving craft.
While the deep ball and long leaping monster wideouts will always grab headlines and highlights the ability of players like Tasker, Armanti Edwards in Toronto, Marquay McDaniel in Calgary and many others to understand defences and find space under twenty yards down the field is as if not more important in the CFL.
Through the first quarter of the CFL schedule I’ve enjoyed watching Tasker as much as the first time I ever saw him, which was February of 2014 when we met with other various Ticats for a throwing session in a frigid bubble dome in West Hamilton. He continues to have the quickness and route running understanding that makes every quarterback happy, yet there has been something missing.
I’ll be honest with you, the radio play-by-play man for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats feeling there was something missing bothered me.
The frustration has been twofold. First, is it true or am I just imagining things and being overly critical of a great player just because he plays on a team off to a rough start? Second, if it is true that Tasker isn’t himself this season, why?
Are expectations simply set too high for the Ticats’ most consistent receiver over the last three seasons? Is he as good as ever but overshadowed by losses or other receivers on his own team having a better start?
To sort out the answer, I took a look at some numbers that parsed what I know about the way Hamilton’s offence operates. Let’s start by figuring out where Luke stands among Ticats receivers this season.
Tasker continues to be a volume receiver for Zach Collaros, leading the team in targets and completions as you might expect, while Mike Jones is having a pleasantly productive season at the wide side receiver spot in place of Spencer Watt, who was released in the off-season. Newcomer Jalen Saunders has become a focal point of the aerial attack in Hamilton.
While calling the games, it has felt as though Collaros frequently targets Tasker on plays with poor offensive line protection. Let’s check the numbers.
This feeling checks out but it could be as much chicken as it is egg. Is Luke being targeted as a release valve for Collaros because he trusts Tasker more than anyone, or is Collaros experiencing a down year connecting with Tasker due to an offensive line which has battled to keep Zach clean through the early season?
Either way, the protection is taking a toll on Collaros’ accuracy when targeting Tasker and every receiver other than Mike Jones:
Both the accuracy grade and offensive line grade are calculated by giving a value from 1-5 for each aspect of the play, with one being the worst possible offensive outcome (sack, interception) and five being the best possible outcome (clean pocket, perfectly placed football). After averaging out the value assigned to each play and multiplying by twenty to get a number out of 100 you have a grade.
To give you a sense for where Tasker’s accuracy when targeted ranks, the CFL average for accuracy is 68.1 as of Week 5 while Collaros’ overall average rests at a CFL-low 64.2.
Tasker has never been a deep threat the likes of Adarius Bowman or Manny Arceneaux but the start of the season had me feeling like he just isn’t being targeted down field at all. It turns out he has the second lowest yards in air targeted on the Ticats roster ahead of only running back Ross Scheuerman, who primarily catches balls at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Here is a season target chart for Tasker to fully illustrate the point that he has two catches over ten yards in the air, the deepest of which was a double move in Week 1 against the Argos:
When Tasker does get the ball in his hands, he is typically a dynamic playmaker — but this year has yet to bust out:
The last Ticats receiving group stat worth looking at is overall production. This is measured by the same scale (1-5) mentioned above with one being an incompletion resulting in the offence leaving the field and five being a touchdown.
When targeting Tasker, the Ticats’ offence has average success thus far in 2017 which I believe makes it fair to say Luke is being slightly overshadowed by Mike Jones and Jalen Saunders.
Regardless of how he stands amongst his teammates, I also wondered if Luke has set an unfairly high standard for himself that he can’t reach in targets, catches and yards. In reality, that was – for the most part – a creation of my imagination.
While he has gotten there in different ways each year, Zach is essentially on pace to hit career averages for both targets and catches as seen above. Where he has fallen behind is the category of yards gained.
This is absolutely due to an overall offensive struggle early in the year for Hamilton, which saw one offensive touchdown scored in the first eight quarters and Zach Collaros nor Luke Tasker are solely to blame for any of the above, but they must be a catalyst for any possible turnaround.
What all of these numbers, trends and graphs boiled down to for me was one simple result. It was the purpose of my original research on the curious case of Luke Tasker. As stated above, are Tasker’s struggles real or am I just imagining things and if it is true that Tasker isn’t himself this season, why?
The answer? Second down.
Last season in Hamilton the Tiger-Cats converted 130 second downs. 42 per cent of those second down conversions came from Luke Tasker and now-injured Andy Fantuz. To take it a step further, 58 per cent of their 2016 second down conversions came from Tasker, Fantuz and fellow injured receiver Terrence Toliver.
Whether you believe Fantuz was Batman last year to Tasker’s Robin or the other way around doesn’t matter. The fact is that Batman is now battling the Joker, Bane, Two-Face, Penguin, The Riddler and Cat Woman all at once without Robin or Alfred to throw that surprise punch and save the day.
The Ticats are converting 32 per cent of their second down opportunities right now. That’s last in the league and 14 per cent below the league average.
On second down conversion attempts of 4-6 yards, the Tiger-Cats have earned a first down just four times in 18 attempts for a success rate of 22 per cent. The next worst team at converting from that intermediate distance is Montreal and they’re twice as proficient with a 44 per cent success rate while the CFL average sits well above both eastern squads at 55.5 per cent.
That intermediate range is Luke Tasker’s sweet spot on the field. There’s no coincidence in my mind why the team and Tasker’s challenging starts intersect. Fantuz and Toliver aren’t there to free up the middle of the field for Tasker.
On first down when targeting Tasker, Collaros is 10-for-24 (41.6%), for 113 yards and an interception. On second down the two are 3-for-10 for just 64 yards including one second down conversion.
One second down conversion, four games into the season.
Tasker had twenty-four such second down conversions in 2016 while playing in just twelve games due to injury. That’s an average of two per game.
I’m not a fan of blaming injuries for offensive futility and I know neither are Tasker, Collaros or any other Tiger-Cats players or coaches but the effect of Tasker without Fantuz and Toliver is undeniable.
If the Ticats can find ways to convert on second down they can stay on the field enough to improve Tasker’s output and make all of the above irrelevant. For now we wait and see if that’s possible with a double dip in the always difficult province of Alberta dead ahead.
