September 12, 2017

CFL Simulation: Ticats’ playoff odds improving

The Canadian Press

TORONTO — The Hamilton Tiger-Cats’ playoff chances are improving.

That doesn’t mean the Ticats are a shoe-in for the post-season, but unlike two weeks ago, it’s become a point of discussion.

The CFL Simulation hits the wire for the second week after Labour Day, providing odds for every team in the CFL to make the playoffs, win the division, play in the Grey Cup and win the Grey Cup.

The biggest change this week: The Ticats’ playoff odds have increased from a minuscule 0.19 per cent to 11.5 per cent.


RELATED:
» Power Rankings: ‘Cats on the climb
» Ticats outrun REDBLACKS in Week 12
» View Standings


Other takeaways: The Bombers’ win over Saskatchewan all but locked up a playoff spot in Winnipeg; the East Division may as well come down to a coin-flip; the Riders are a likely crossover team; and finally, the Stampeders are still an overwhelming favourite to win the West and the Grey Cup.

We dive head first into the numbers below:

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

Odds to Make Playoffs

Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders 99.98%
Blue Bombers 99.18%
Toronto Argonauts 90.46%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 90.09%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 77.17%
Edmonton Eskimos 65.71%
BC Lions 57.96%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 11.50%
Montreal Alouettes 7.95%

 

Odds to Win East

Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts 50.91%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 45.51%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 2.64%
Montreal Alouettes 0.94%

 

Odds to Win West

Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders 91.96%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 7.77%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.10%
BC Lions 0.09%
Edmonton Eskimos 0.08%

 

Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup

Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders 77.99%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 43.85%
Toronto Argonauts 34.68%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 17.76%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 13.51%
BC Lions 5.73%
Edmonton Eskimos 3.90%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 2.02%
Montreal Alouettes 0.56%

 

Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup

Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders 67.07%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 13.43%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 6.78%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 6.01%
Toronto Argonauts 4.20%
BC Lions 1.49%
Edmonton Eskimos 0.86%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 0.12%
Montreal Alouettes 0.04%

 

Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups

Team Projection
Calgary-Ottawa 34.11%
Calgary-Toronto 26.91%
Calgary-Saskatchewan 7.75%
Winnipeg-Ottawa 7.40%
Winnipeg-Toronto 5.93%

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.