Dominick Gravel/Montreal Alouettes
In preparing this primer, I decided to take a look in a few different areas. We’re going to take a look at the current climate ahead of Wednesday’s deadline, but also take a glance at recent history to give us an idea of what might transpire over the next couple of days.
The big story
The future of Zach Collaros is the dominant deadline story of 2017. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback hasn’t started a game since Aug. 18, with Jeremiah Masoli going 4-2 since taking the reins. A 2015 Most Outstanding Player front-runner prior to getting injured, Collaros has struggled in 2017, which led to the team switching starters.
I argued for the Ticats trading Collaros in last week’s Berg vs. Ferg piece, and I still feel that way with the deadline a hours away. I think Collaros could really benefit from a change of scenery, while the team could get some solid assets in return. Sometimes a mutual parting of ways is best for both sides, and it feels like the Collaros situation in Hamilton fits that description. Of course, the situation isn’t that simple, as there are a number of factors playing into the decision.
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When it comes to a potential Collaros trade, both scenarios make sense (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
Despite their 0-8 start to the season, the Tiger-Cats are still very much in a playoff race. This conversation would likely be more cut and dried if Hamilton was out of it going into the final stretch of the season, putting them in clear “seller” mode. In reality, though, the Ticats’ playoff fate is very much in their own hands: if they win out, they’re guaranteed second in the East Division. As such, Hamilton finds itself in a tough spot when it comes to defining a trade stance ahead of Wednesday.
The primary rationale for keeping Collaros in the fold is to ensure a solid insurance policy. If Masoli were to get injured or take a step back in performance, having Collaros as a fallback plan is desirable to virtually every other option. Sure, Collaros hasn’t had the same level of success since his 2015 knee injury, but we’re still talking about a quarterback with elite ability. Having Collaros in the back pocket is a nice weapon to have.
Masoli’s future plays into this conversation, too. Without a contract for 2018, the Tiger-Cats need to figure out what they’re doing with Masoli in the long-term before potentially dealing Collaros. If Hamilton feels Masoli is the guy going forward, and that they can agree to contract terms this off-season, then a Collaros trade makes sense. If those conditions aren’t met, though, trading Collaros could leave the Ticats in a bad spot going into next season.
Finally, Hamilton needs a trade partner, and preferably more than just one. The Tiger-Cats won’t trade Collaros just for the sake of it, so it needs to be a deal that nets them a nice return. With two or more interested parties, Hamilton has more leverage and can drive the price up a little bit.
So who could those interested teams be? Toronto comes to mind right off the hop. While still one of the best pivots in the league, Ricky Ray turns 38 later this month and isn’t the long-term answer. Furthermore, we saw how much the Argos struggled when Ray went down earlier this season, so having a capable other option is a need.
The Ticats and Argos could be prime trade partners when it comes to Collaros (CFL.ca)
The struggling Montreal Alouettes could be a landing spot, too, but with them being on the outside, a late-season addition seems counter-intuitive. Acquiring Collaros makes more sense for the Als during the off-season as opposed to the next couple days.
The only other spot would be Saskatchewan, which I think could make sense, too. Yes, Kevin Glenn and Brandon Bridge have both won games in impressive fashion this season, but the former is 38 years old while the latter is still an unproven commodity. You don’t have to squint to see Collaros being a fit in Regina.
I really don’t know if we’ll see Collaros on the move prior to Wednesday’s trade deadline, because there are a ton of mitigating factors playing into decision. In saying that, though, it’s clear his future in black and yellow is the number one story to watch in the next 48 hours or so.
Climate check
The competitive nature and relative parity we’ve seen in 2017 makes handicapping the deadline a little more complicated. As it stands right now, there is really only one, maybe two, defined “selling” teams. Every other team is in playoff contention at the very least, which likely makes buying or standing pat far more likely scenarios.
At 3-11 and officially out of the playoffs, Montreal is the leading sell candidate. BC is the other candidate here, but with a game against Edmonton still to go, their playoff hopes are still very much alive. As such, it’s debatable at best they’d be willing to trade away assets prior to Wednesday.
With supply and demand so slanted towards the latter, it’s easy to see how a logjam might form. The Alouettes have every reason to demand solid assets for potential trade pieces, and that could very well flatten out the market.
With the Als out of playoff contention, they could be the most active team this week (Montreal Alouettes)
Deals involving “buyer” and “seller” teams aren’t the only ones that exist, but they’re definitely the most prevalent at this time of year. With the standings the way they are, though, the climate for that might not be as favourable as in years past.
Interestingly, though, last week’s C.J. Gable trade involved a pair of teams fighting for their playoff lives. When individual situations line up the way things did for Hamilton and Edmonton, a deal can be struck, even without defined roles.
In need of tailback, the Eskimos found a scenario where a conversation made sense. The emergence of Alex Green in recent weeks allowed the Ticats to bargain from a position of strength, and they brought in pair of negotiation list players in return.
Deals don’t necessarily have to have defined “roles” to be consummated, as Edmonton and Hamilton proved last week. The question is, though, how many other deals like that are in the cards prior to Wednesday? With so many teams jockeying for important positions, I just can’t see that answer being very high.
Big game fishing
If you’re thinking this year’s deadline will consist only of small tinkering and depth moves, the last two years might give you a little pause. The past two trade deadlines have seen big time moves rubber stamped, even if they weren’t of the most predictable nature.
With an injury forcing running back Jon Cornish to the sidelines late in the 2015 season, the Calgary Stampeders saw a need and filled it in a very efficient manner. Cornish’s last game of that season, and as we’d find out later his career, was Oct. 10. Well, four days later, the Stamps had completed a deal with Saskatchewan, bringing Jerome Messam back the other way.
The results have been pretty good for Calgary since bringing Messam into the fold. Messam won the 2016 rushing title by almost 200 yards and is in a comfortable position to repeat that feat this season. While almost no one was truly going to fill Cornish’s shoes, the Stamps acquired a tailback with a Canadian passport and he’s torn the league up since donning the red and white.
Jerome Messam proved to be more than just a rental for the Stamps two years ago (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
Let’s skip ahead to October 2016 when Winnipeg and Toronto came together on a blockbuster deal ahead of the deadline. With Ricky Ray out long-term, the Argos looked for their fix by acquiring quarterback Drew Willy from the Bombers. Unfortunately, that deal has turned out to be one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory.
Winnipeg felt comfortable moving on from Willy, mainly due to the emergence of Matt Nichols, who had begun the 2016 season as the team’s starter. For trading their backup, the Bombers got a really nice return: a first and third round pick and defensive back T.J. Heath. A year later, that deal looks even more impressive for Winnipeg.
That first round pick turned into the number one overall selection in May’s CFL Draft, which the Bombers turned into defensive tackle Faith Ekakitie. Heath, on the other hand, fit in perfectly with Winnipeg’s ball-hawking secondary and sits tied for third in the league with four interceptions this season.
Things didn’t work out so well for Toronto. Willy was mostly ineffective in his four starts with his new team down the stretch as the Argos limped to 0-7 finish to the campaign. The deal certainly played its part in the team’s front office shakeup this off-season, and Willy was released prior to the start of this season.
As we’ve laid out, Zach Collaros is the big name ahead of this year’s trade deadline. It’s not guarantee he’ll be moved, but if you’re highly skeptical it will happen, the last two October’s are evidence it’s not out of the question.
