October 16, 2017

By the Numbers: Is Reilly a must-start in Fantasy?

The Canadian Press

TORONTO — The fun part about playing TSN CFL Fantasy is the flexibility of a $40,000 salary cap, with wide-ranging player salaries at each and every position.

That means if you want to try and find value at quarterback with a Kevin Glenn ($8,872) or even a Drew Willy ($5,134), that’s a totally viable strategy because it frees up cash to spend elsewhere.

On the other hand, no quarterback has dominated the fantasy landscape like Mike Reilly ($13,576) this season, and his salary reflects that. While the majority of CFL quarterbacks range from Matt Nichols ($10,982) to Glenn at $8,872 — a difference of $2,110 — Reilly is on an island of his own.

The question: Is it worth burning a third of your salary cap to have Reilly on your roster?

If the numbers are any indication, the answer is yes — regardless of who he’s playing against.

Let’s take a look at Reilly’s game log:

WEEK OPPONENT PASS RUSH TOTAL
1 BC 20.6 0.1 20.7
2 MTL 15.4 2.2 17.6
4 OTT 14.6 1 15.7
5 HAM 26 0 26
6 BC 20.5 13.1 33.6
7 HAM 20.7 15.1 35.8
8 OTT 19.4 5.1 24.5
9 WPG 20.2 7.4 27.6
10 SSK 2.4 6.6 9
11 CGY 16.8 2.9 19.7
12 CGY 20.4 0.2 20.6
13 TOR 20.9 0.6 21.5
15 WPG 18.4 3.2 21.6
16 MTL 17.4 4.3 21.7
17 TOR 14.4 9.4 23.8

 

One tough game aside, Reilly has not gone below 15 points this season. He’s also gone over 20 points in 11 out of 15 contests (including five straight). Finally, the opponent doesn’t seem to matter: in back-to-back games vs. Calgary, the CFL’s stingiest defence, Reilly put up totals of 19.7 and 20.6.

Not only is the CFL’s leading passer remarkably consistent, setting a comfortable floor of around 20 points with his 22.8-point average, his running ability also gives him a very high ceiling. Reilly has hit 26 points or more four times this season, including two instances of 30-plus (33.6 and 35.8).

This season, no player has come close to matching Reilly’s production, which makes his price tag a little more difficult to swallow. But with some savvy spending elsewhere, Reilly’s presence gives your roster an immediate edge every week.

Finally, let’s break down Reilly’s Fantasy Points this season compared to the rest of the field:

PLAYER POSITION VALUE POINTS SCORED AVERAGE
Mike Reilly QB $13,576 341.4 22.8
Matt Nichols QB $10,982 289.7 19.3
Trevor Harris QB $11,444 278.2 19.9
Ricky Ray QB $10,680 272.5 18.2
Bo Levi Mitchell QB $9,174 238.0 15.9
Kevin Glenn QB $8,872 237.5 17.0
Andrew Harris RB $8,247 210.7 14.0
Greg Ellingson WR $6,687 209.4 12.3
Jeremiah Johnson RB $7,865 203.9 13.6
S.J. Green WR $6,786 191.7 12.0

 

While there’s no sure thing in CFL Fantasy, the Eskimos’ starting quarterback is about as close as it gets. Start him comfortable no matter the opponent, and enjoy your sure points week in and week out.