CFL Simulation: ‘Double E’ aiming to double down

TORONTO — If the question is ‘what have you done for me lately’, the Edmonton Eskimos appear to have all the right answers going into the post-season.

No team has been hot and cold like the Eskimos this year, with the Double E opening the season on a seven-game winning streak before nearly falling to .500 after a sixth straight loss. After bouncing back with four straight wins, including on the road against BC and at home against CFL-leading Calgary, the Eskimos are the CFL’s hottest team with the playoffs in close proximity.

While the West remains highly-competitive, the computer likes Mike Reilly‘s team as a dark horse, improving their odds of winning the Grey Cup to 7.05 per cent following the win over the Stamps. After all, if the Esks can double their winning streak to eight games, they’ll also double their number of Grey Cups over a three-year span.

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Elsewhere, the eastern winds have once again shifted in Ottawa’s favour following the REDBLACKS’ back-and-forth win over Hamilton. Ottawa could win the East without even taking the field this weekend, needing a loss by Toronto against BC to clinch a third straight division title.

Finally, while the Stamps are still an overwhelming favourite to win a championship, the simulation is slightly less bullish on Cowtown. After two straight losses, the Stamps’ odds of holding up the Grey Cup have fallen to 38.85 per cent.

We take a closer look in this week’s simulation:

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the West Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.