Numbers Don’t Lie: 3 stats that will define the Eastern Semi-Final

OTTAWA — As the playoffs arrive and the road to the Grey Cup gets under way, six playoff teams have a clean sheet with a chance to win on Nov. 26.

That doesn’t mean we should forget everything we’ve learned through the 20-week regular season schedule.

The Riders and REDBLACKS are unexpected first-round foes by way of the crossover, yet these cross-division rivals should be familiar with one another after two late-season contests.

With very little separating them through 18 regular season games, we look at three trends that could determine Sunday’s Eastern Semi-Final:

1. Two games, no separation between the Riders and REDBLACKS

The Headline: Too close for comfort

The Number: 1 (Point between Ottawa and Saskatchewan in both regular season meetings)

Kevin Glenn throws a pass during the Riders’ loss to Ottawa on Oct. 13 (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)

Whether in head to head play or in the standings, there’s very little separation between the Riders and REDBLACKS going into their first ever playoff meeting.

Both of their regular season meetings came down to a single point, while only two wins and three points separate them in the standings. And while Saskatchewan’s point differential of plus-80 is second-best in the West, Ottawa’s point differential of plus-43 leads the East.

Finally, the REDBLACKS and Riders are two of the three hottest teams in the CFL. Ottawa is on a three-game surge going into the post-season, while Saskatchewan, despite a season-ending loss to Edmonton, goes into the playoffs with eight wins in its last 12.

On paper, the Riders and REDBLACKS appear to be as evenly-matched as possible. Which means you can expect a very close game between these clubs on Sunday.

2. Seizing the post-season spotlight

The Headline: Harris to make post-season debut

The Number: 0 (The number of post-season starts for Trevor Harris)

Trevor Harris leads the REDBLACKS into the playoffs on the heels of three straight wins (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

Trevor Harris has continued his emergence as one of the CFL’s top quarterbacks this year, averaging 312 passing yards per game to go with 30 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. Had he not been hurt, an MOP award may have been on the table.

Yet the ‘zero’ beside his name in the post-season starts category is unmistakable. Despite putting up MOP numbers in two of his last three seasons, Harris has never started a post-season game, biding his time between two legends in Ricky Ray and Henry Burris.

Last year we recall Harris getting warmed up and leading the REDBLACKS into the coin flip at the Grey Cup, while Burris nursed a freak pre-game knee injury. Harris didn’t get to play, and Burris capped off his legendary career with another ring.

After putting his October struggles behind him, now Harris will navigate uncharted waters. How will he perform in his first ever playoff start?

3. Playing it safe?

The Headline: Ball security is job security

The Number: 26 (The total turnover differential between Ottawa and Saskatchewan, favouring the Riders)

Ed Gainey had a league-leading 10 interceptions for the Riders in 2017 (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

It’s been well-stated that turnovers are a key aspect to the outcome of any football game. Even though they’ve won their last three games, the Ottawa REDBLACKS have still struggled with turnovers, coughing up the football five times against Hamilton and seven times over their last two contests.

Ottawa’s offence is as dangerous as any in the CFL, but if the REDBLACKS can’t protect the football, they’ll have a hard time beating the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Only two teams have forced more turnovers than the Chris Jones-coached Riders (41 turnovers), while only one team, Winnipeg, has scored more points off turnovers.

The most jarring number is the Riders’ turnover differential of plus-14, third in the CFL behind Winnipeg and Calgary. Ottawa’s turnover ratio, minus-12, is the worst out of any team in the playoffs.

At the end of the day, this battle will define the Eastern Semi-Final, as the Riders must force turnovers to win while Ottawa needs to protect the football to have a chance.