Matt Smith/CFL.ca
WINNIPEG — As the playoffs arrive and the road to the Grey Cup gets under way, six playoff teams have a clean sheet with a chance to win the Grey Cup.
That doesn’t mean we should forget about everything we’ve learned through the 20-week regular season schedule.
The Bombers and Eskimos will meet for the third time this season, with Winnipeg sweeping the two-game regular set. But while the Blue and Gold were best in head-to-head play, what else can we take from these two explosive football teams?
From the illustrious Mike Reilly–Brandon Zylstra connection to Winnipeg’s playmaking defence, we look at three trends that could determine Sunday’s Western Semi-Final:
1. Brandon Zylstra, super sophomore
The Headline: Don’t sleep on ‘Z’
The Number: 99.8 (Average receiving yards per game throughout Brandon Zylstra’s career)
If the Bombers can’t stop Brandon Zylstra, they must at least contain him to have a chance (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
Statistically speaking, no receiver has had a better start to his career than No. 83 in green and gold. Brandon Zylstra is averaging just shy of 100 yards per game through his first two CFL seasons, making him the league’s most productive pass-catcher over that span.
We already know that Mike Reilly is having a career year for the Eskimos, but a big part of that has been the weapons around him. The emergence of D’haquille Williams and the return of Derel Walker around Labour Day have only opened things up for Zylstra, who led the league with 1,687 yards in just his second season.
The Bombers have allowed 100-plus receiving yards to 12 receivers this season. While they can’t eliminate Zylstra from the stat sheet altogether, they need to at least contain him to have a chance of winning the Western Semi-Final.
2. Reilly vs. Nichols, Round 3
The Headline: Out of the shadows for Nichols
The Number: 21-9 (Matt Nichols‘ record as a starter in Winnipeg)
Matt Nichols looks to unseat Mike Reilly and his former team in Sunday’s semi-final (The Canadian Press)
It was midway through 2015 when Matt Nichols, playing in relief of an injured Mike Reilly, was beaten out for the backup job by the emerging young James Franklin. Little did we know that Nichols, once a top prospect, would rebound to become one of the CFL’s elite quarterbacks in Winnipeg.
Since taking over for Drew Willy early in 2016, Nichols has gone 21-9 as a starting quarterback, this year leading the Bombers to their first home playoff game since 2011. The veteran pivot ranks second in the league in QUAR while compiling a touchdowns to interceptions ratio of 28:8.
And now, finally, what we’ve all been waiting for: Nichols vs. Reilly. Reilly has set an Eskimos franchise record this year ahead of Ricky Ray and Warren Moon, throwing for 5,830 yards. His 30 touchdown passes lead the CFL, and he’s got a shot to win Most Outstanding Player for the first time in his career.
Nichols, who missed the Bombers’ season finale due to injury, will have to play and he’ll have to play well for the Bombers to get the ‘W’. Whatever happens, this is the matchup to watch.
3. Avoid the big mistake
The Headline: Don’t feed the turnover machine
The Number: 166 (league-leading points off turnovers for the Bombers)
Drake Nevis and the Bomber defence lead the CFL with 166 points off turnovers this year (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
In their last three games, the Bombers have scored three touchdowns directly off turnovers, and another that set them up at the one-yard-line.
While the Blue and Gold haven’t quite kept pace with last year’s record-breaking season, their defence has proven that its ability to take the football away is no fluke.
The league-leading 166 points the Bombers have scored off turnovers should serve as a warning to Eskimos pivot Mike Reilly. While the Esks will want to push the ball to their explosive playmakers, they have to be wary of a Winnipeg defence boasting playmakers like Chris Randle, T.J. Heath and Tristan Okpalaugo.
A closer look at the stats reveals that the Bombers are giving up more yards than they’re producing. Turnovers have been the difference for them, so a clean game for the Eskimos should lead to a win.
In head to head contests this season, the Bombers hold a close 3-2 edge in turnovers. While that’s always a defining statistic in football, on Sunday it will be particularly profound.
