Larry MacDougal/CFL.ca
Berg vs. Ferg returns for another season on CFL.ca as columnists Pat Steinberg and Marshall Ferguson debate over some of the league’s most contentious storylines. This week they debate over the Grey Cup favourite.
It’s hard to imagine a more balanced field than the one competing for this year’s Grey Cup.
That’s why many found it puzzling when the CFL Simulation came out this week and revealed, once again, a clear-cut favourite to win on Nov. 26.
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The CFL Simulation raised some eyebrows when it revealed the Argos as Grey Cup favourites (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
According to the computer, the Grey Cup favourite is not the Edmonton Eskimos, the CFL’s hottest team going into Sunday’s Western Final on a six-game winning streak; nor is it the Calgary Stampeders, the team that led the regular season with 13 wins.
It’s the Toronto Argonauts, who, despite winning five of their last seven games, won the East Division with a .500 record at 9-9.
There are plenty of reasons the Argos could be considered a favourite. For one, no crossover team has ever made it to the Grey Cup, giving the Argos’ odds of playing in the Grey Cup an immediate boost. The simulation also has a recency bias (the Argos have played their best football at the tail end of the season) and also favours one-sided road victories (see: Toronto at BC).
With that said, the Stampeders, Eskimos and Riders battled all season in the CFL’s most difficult division. Those three teams may have something to say about the numbers.
Who should be the Grey Cup favourite? Steinberg and Ferguson debate.
| BERG VS. FERG: LAST WEEK’S RESULTS |
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Poll Result: Can the Riders succeed with a two-QB system? |
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Steinberg: No (77%) Ferguson: Yes (23%) |
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FERG (10-12): NO ONE IS PLAYING BETTER THAN THE ESKIMOS
Marshall Ferguson, CFL.ca
@TSN_Marsh
When the CFL released its playoff simulation percentages earlier this week, it ruffled more than a couple of feathers around the league.
Toronto as the most likely team to win the Grey Cup this season?!
While the Riders used the calculated numbers as motivation following their Eastern Semi-Final victory over the Ottawa REDBLACKS, another CFL road team was well on the way to winning a playoff game.
That team was the Edmonton Eskimos, who I believe to be the most dangerous team left in the CFL playoffs.
The Eskimos didn’t talk about the percentages much. They just went to Winnipeg and put together a dominant game plan which featured the most important aspect of cold weather, late-season football. The ability to run the ball.
Behind mid-season acquisition C.J. Gable, the Eskimos have found the required recipe to a championship dinner.
The Eskimos have become healthier as the season entered the home stretch, found that running attack after Gable traded his black and gold for green and gold, and most important, the Empire has kept Mike Reilly clean for the most part throughout the season.
That combination makes The Eskimos multi-dimensional as a team.
In each of their specific units, Edmonton also remains amongst the most dangerous groups remaining in the CFL’s final four.
I believe Edmonton’s receivers and defensive line to be the best in the CFL, while their offensive line play is at worst third- or fourth-ranked from down to down.
Put it all together and you have a team looking to peak at the right time while already showing the ability to play at the highest of levels in 2017 during a red hot start and a confidence-building home stretch.
BERG (12-10): NEVER WRITE OFF THE STAMPEDERS
Pat Steinberg, CFL.ca
@Fan960Steinberg
Don’t write the Calgary Stampeders off just yet. The Stamps did not look good losing three straight games down the stretch, I cannot deny. But this team hasn’t been the head and shoulders class of the CFL since the start of 2016 by accident, either. They haven’t looked themselves recently, but with all the chips on the line, I still think Calgary is the team to beat in Sunday’s West Division Final.
First off, as much as many don’t want to hear, I think good teams have the ability to flip the switch. Momentum counts for lots, and the Stampeders don’t have a lot of it right now, but it’s not the only thing that matters. Calgary showed us last year they can lose their regular season finale in Week 19, sit for three weeks and still emphatically beat the BC Lions to punch their ticket to the Grey Cup. Truly elite teams know how to execute when the chips are down, even when momentum doesn’t seem to be on their side.
The biggest issue for the Stamps down the stretch was on the offensive side of the ball. Calgary struggled to score and move the ball consistently during their first three-game skid since 2007. Even if my “switch flipping” theory is completely off-base come Sunday, the Stampeders still boast a defence to be reckoned with. Don’t forget, Calgary led the league in points allowed and quarterback sacks while finishing second with 20 interceptions. Charleston Hughes (11), Micah Johnson (9), and Ja’Gared Davis (9) combined for 29 sacks on the defensive line while Alex Singleton cemented himself as one of, if not the, best linebackers in the country. Often playoff football comes as tight and fought in the trenches, and no team is better equipped than the Stamps to slog it out in a defensive battle.
While playing hurt, it’s still tough to dismiss quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell in an important game, too. Since taking over to start the 2014 season, no one has won more than Mitchell, and more often than not, the guy brings it when the stakes are highest. Additionally, Calgary will have all five of its starting receivers healthy in a game for the first time since July 29, which gives Mitchell so many more options. When you factor in X-factors like Roy Finch and Rene Paredes, the Stamps look even more formidable. Finch was emphatically the league’s best return man in 2017 while Paredes missed five field goals all season.
Edmonton definitely has momentum on its side heading into the Western Final, and it’s also a really good team. But to think Calgary is just going to quietly pack its things and go away just because it struggled to finish the regular season is ludicrous to me. The Stampeders were the CFL’s best team all year long and should still be viewed as such on Sunday. If they have to “flip the switch” to beat the Eskimos, so be it.
DON’T SIT ON THE FENCE!
While both sides are pretty convincing, someone’s got to take it. Whose argument convinced you the most?
You can vote for this week’s winner both on CFL.ca and Twitter. Meanwhile, continue the conversation by tweeting @Fan960Steinberg and @TSN_Marsh.
The winner will be revealed in the following week’s Berg vs. Ferg.
