December 10, 2017

For The ‘W’: 10 stats that defined the Bombers’ season

Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca

Small confession here: yours truly is an unapologetic sports stats geek.

Yes, from this little perch there’s something magical about all the meaningful numbers in sports, from the 27 up and 27 down that come with a perfect game in baseball, to the magnitude of a 50-goal season in hockey, to the double-double in basketball.

Football has its meaningful numbers too, from the individual brilliance represented by 100-yard receiving or rushing games, to the 1,000-yard seasons posted by pass catchers and ball carriers, to the significance of a 300-yard passing game for quarterbacks.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers put up some significant numbers in 2017, from the 12-win total that was the highest since 2002, to Andrew Harris and his pursuit of the never-before-reached goal of 1,000-yards rushing and receiving in the same season that fell just short.

And so before the season completely fades in the rearview mirror, we thought we’d throw out for discussion a few numbers that really jumped out in our Weekend Read.

Call this, then, 10 Numbers/10 Talking Points…

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+14

The stat: The Bombers finished +14 in the turnover ratio (takeaways minus giveaways), second only to Calgary’s +20.

What it means: Over the last two years, the Bombers are a whopping +43 in the turnover ratio, followed by the Stampeders (+39), Hamilton (+5), Saskatchewan (-3), Edmonton (-5), Toronto and Montreal (-16), Ottawa (-22) and B.C. (-25).

Talking point: The Bombers managed 166 points off turnovers this season, first in the CFL, and 149 last season – also first. Interestingly, for as good as the Stampeders have been in protecting the ball during the regular season, they were minus-2 in the turnover ratio in the last two Grey Cup games, both losses.

53.3

The stat: Winnipeg’s ‘Red Zone’ touchdown efficiency percentage, or how many times the offence found the end zone when at least one play was run from an opponent’s 20-yard line or closer.

What it means: It’s one thing to get near an opponent’s goal line, but another altogether to put up six points. The Bombers made 60 trips to the red zone this year, scoring TDs on 32 of them for a 53.3 percent success rate. That ranked fifth overall – B.C. was first at 70.9 per cent. The Bombers ranked seventh last year in red-zone TD percentage at 50 per cent.

Talking point: The two teams that ranked eighth and ninth in this department – second last and last – were the Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts (47.7) and the team with the best overall record, Calgary (46.7). Go figure.

When it comes to red zone percentage, the Bombers hovered at league average at around 50 per cent (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

7,144

The stat: The Bombers defence surrendered 7,144 yards offence this past season, second most to Montreal’s 7,344, for an average of 396.9 yards per game.

What it means: It’s not good, especially combined with last year’s total of 7,343 yards for a two-year total of 14,487 – by far the most in the CFL. Bombers defenders will counter with the turnover total mentioned above, and that’s valid, but the two stingiest defences in the league this year were also playing on the last Sunday in November – Calgary (314.7 yards per game), and Toronto (329.1).

Talking point: Only once in the last 10 years have the Bombers surrendered less than 6,000 yards offence in a season. And, not coincidentally, it came in 2011 (5,420) when the club represented the East Division in the Grey Cup.

30

The stat: Consecutive starts for Bombers QB Matt Nichols before he was forced to skip the regular season finale in Calgary (started by Dan LeFevour, a game won by Winnipeg).

What it means: The Bombers had been searching for stability at the most important position on the field for years before handing the starting chores to Nichols after a 1-4 start to open 2016. The Bombers are 21-9 in games in which Nichols starts since then.

Talking point: Consider this: in a 71-game span from 2012-17 the Bombers were 21-51 in games in which Nichols did not start and the quarterbacks combined for an ugly 51-to-61 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nichols TD-interception ratio since becoming the starter is 45 to 17.

In 2017, Matt Nichols erased any doubt that he’s the franchise QB the Bombers have been seeking (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)

1,892

The stat: The yards from scrimmage – rushing (1,035) and receiving (857) – for the Bombers’ Andrew Harris this year. Harris won the CFL rushing title and led the league with 105 receptions, a new league record for catches by a running back.

What it means: First of all, it means Harris was a workhorse this season as he had 294 touches all year, including 189 carries – second to Calgary’s Jerome Messam (215). Harris has led the CFL in yards from scrimmage three times, twice as a member of the B.C. Lions (2015, 2012).

Harris became the last Bomber player to lead the CFL in yards from scrimmage since Charles Roberts did it five consecutive seasons from 2003-2007.

Talking point: Discuss amongst yourselves the significance of a running back leading a team in receptions. It’s happened only three times across the league since 2010 – twice by Harris (last year and in 2012 with the Lions) and once by Brandon Whitaker in Toronto in 2016.

116

The stat: The two-year total field goals hit by Bombers kicker Justin Medlock, who set a CFL record with 60 makes in 2016 and followed that up with 56 more in 2017.

What it means: It’s too simple to suggest it means the Bombers have stalled a lot in the red zone. It’s partly that, of course, but consider that the average length of Medlock’s tries this season were from the 36-yard line – meaning the attempts came outside the red zone.

Worth noting: no kicker in the league attempted and made more kicks from 40-plus yards than Medlock (16 for 27) and from 50-plus (six for 10).

Talking point:  In the last two seasons, the Bombers have been involved in 16 games decided by a touchdown or less, eight in 2016 and eight this past season. Their record in those games? A solid 12-4. In 2015 – the year before Medlock arrived – the Bombers were in nine games decided by a touchdown or less. Their record in those games that year? Try 3-6.

After an up-and-down 2017 season, Justin Medlock will return to the Blue and Gold in 2017 (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

108

The stat: The Bombers took just 108 penalties in 2017, an average of six per game and by far the fewest in the CFL (Ottawa ranked second with 127). Winnipeg had 33 penalties on offence (the second fewest was Hamilton at 40); 53 on defence (second-fewest to Ottawa’s 43) and 14 on special teams (tied with Toronto for the fewest).

What it means: A year ago the Bombers had 166 penalties, fourth-most in the league. In the past three seasons, the penalty total has dropped from 202 to 166 to 108, a difference of over five penalties per game.

Talking point: The last time the Bombers took less than 108 penalties in a season was way back in 1974, when they were nailed for 90 infractions. Teams were also playing a 16-game schedule then, too.

109

The stat: The combined total for sacks and quarterback pressures allowed. The Bombers surrendered 38 sacks, tied for fourth, and just 71 pressures, the lowest in the league. That combined total was second-lowest in the CFL to Calgary’s 108.

What it means: A lot of things, actually. First of all, it’s a testament to the continuity the Bombers had up front along the offensive line with Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman Stanley Bryant at left tackle, West Division All-Star Jermarcus Hardrick at right tackle, CFLPA All-Star centre Matthias Goossen at centre and Travis Bond, Patrick Neufeld and Sukh Chungh at guard.

But it also speaks of the ability of Matt Nichols to read, react and get the ball out of his hands quickly and of the blocking skills of the receivers and running backs – particularly Andrew Harris – when asked to chip in on protection.

Talking point: The Bombers have given up 73 sacks over the past two seasons, third fewest behind Calgary (50) and Edmonton (60). Just to put that number into perspective, in 2014-15 Bombers quarterbacks were sacked a whopping 130 times.

Sukh Chungh and the Bombers’ O-line kept Matt Nichols clean throughout most of the season (CFL.ca)

116

The stat: Quarterback pressures registered by the Bombers defence this year, ranking third behind Calgary (125) and Edmonton (121).

What it means: The CFL just started tracking pressures in 2017 and it’s an intriguing stat that speaks of a defence’s disruptive abilities. The Bombers were led by Jackson Jeffcoat in this department – his 23 pressures, in 16 games, ranked fifth best in the CFL behind Saskatchewan’s Willie Jefferson (37), John Bowman of Montreal (27), Odell Willis of Edmonton (25) and the Riders A.C. Leonard (24).

Talking point: Another of the confounding Bomber defensive stats – the club ranked third in pressures, tied for fourth in sacks (44), second in turnovers forced (42) and first in interceptions (24), but gave up the second-most yardage and fourth-most points against.

65/41

The stat: The number of big plays surrendered by the defence and special teams (65) and the number of big plays generated by the offence (41). That 65 total was highest in the CFL and 41 was the fewest.

What it means: First of all, ‘big plays’ – as determined by the CFL stats crews – are rushes of 20 yards plus, passes of 30 yards or more, 30 yards or more on punt and missed field goal returns and kickoff returns of 40 yards or more.

Talking point: The Bombers use different definitions for those dreaded ‘explosion plays’ we heard about all year – they use 20-yard plays as a barometer – but, in any case, giving up big chunks of real estate on one particular plays is a huge reason the overall yardage against is so mammoth.

As well, the Bombers offence had 32 big plays – nine rushing and 23 passing – which ranked last in the CFL. And yet, the Bombers finished second in points by an offence, second in second-down conversions and first in yards rushing, proving how effective their ball-control attack was this past season.