June 20, 2018

Fantasy Strategy: Will the running backs bounce back?

Jason Halstead/CFL.ca

Week 1 was a bit of a fantasy anomaly as quarterbacks accounted for four of the five rushing touchdowns on the slate. It’s a rare occasion when a quarterback scores 30+ Fantasy points while passing for only one touchdown.

Positive statistical regression is also due for running backs in Week 2.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected

Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $9,874

Reilly had 34.6 Fantasy points last week and threw only one touchdown pass. Let that sink in for a minute, because he’s not likely to be limited to only one touchdown pass this week versus Hamilton, which gave up 32 touchdown passes last season and the third-highest rate of TDs per pass attempt in 2017. Reilly begins the season with the two best passing matchups he could hope for. The price tag is somewhat prohibitive, making him a less than obvious value play, but his ceiling is higher than any player regardless of position.

Masoli may be the less heralded QB in Hamilton right now, but he’s deservedly the starter. The Stampeder defence surrendered 300-plus yards only five times last season and Masoli hung 344 yards on them in Week 1. The Eskimo pass defence is no slouch either, allowing the third-lowest rate of touchdown passes per attempt last season, but Masoli has a wide array of weapons at his disposal in Brandon Banks, Jalen Saunders, and Luke Tasker. Both Masoli and Reilly also add a lot to their scoring baselines through rushing yards, giving them both a solid floor to build from.


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Punt Single

Chris Streveler, WPG – $6,000

Speaking of running quarterbacks, Streveler had seven rushing attempts in his first start, which falls in line with the 11 per game he averaged in college. The Montreal pass defence has tended to be more generous than Edmonton’s, allowing the second-highest rate of passing TDs per attempt in 2017. At his significant salary discount from the other starters, Streveler is a reasonable punt option at QB in this matchup if you want to load up elsewhere.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected

James Wilder, TOR – $7,303

Andrew Harris, WPG – $5,755

C.J. Gable, EDM – $7,330

Wilder had a superhuman 2017 once he became the starter, but he seemed more mortal versus the stout run defence of the Roughriders in Week 1, when he was held to only 16 yards rushing on five carries. His receiving work salvaged the day, but his Week 2 prospects don’t look much better versus a Calgary defence that allowed the second-lowest rate of rush yards per attempt and the third-lowest rate of rushing TDs per attempt last season. Wilder still checks in as the top projected back on the slate due to the high rates he scored at last season, but there is some fragility to this early 2018 projection because of it.

As was a common theme in Week 1, Harris had a solid workload and produced at decent rates, but the lack of touchdowns kept his overall Fantasy scoring down. It’s unlikely opposing defences will keep all the running backs out of the end zone for a second week in a row. Montreal allowed the second-highest yards per carry to opposing runners last season, which makes Harris an enticing play. It’s unlikely all of Winnipeg’s touchdowns come through the air again this week.

It’s unlikely Andrew Harris will be held out of the end zone a second straight week (The Canadian Press)

Gable was a bit of a Fantasy disappointment in Week 1, but if either of those Reilly goal line touchdowns had come his way, it would have been a different story. Gable was an active member of the passing game and will almost certainly get more than his nine carries from a week ago which was his lowest total as an Eskimo. Hamilton allowed the third highest rate of rushing TDs per attempt last season and gave up the second-most rushing yards in week one (132).

Punt Single

Terry Williams, CGY – $3,859

Don Jackson, CGY – $3,000

This week’s punt options share the Calgary backfield. Jackson was somewhat surprisingly named the Stampeders starter at running back in Week 1, but Calgary intends to work with the “hot hand” approach at the position this season. Jackson is expected to start again in Week 2, but what gets lost here is that prior to Jackson’s late game 44-yard touchdown run, the rushing attempts were close to evenly split with Williams having a significantly better yards per carry average. With Williams getting some red zone work and having the higher floor due to his work in the return game, he still deserves consideration even if Jackson is the starter.

RECEIVER

Top Projected

Naaman Roosevelt, SSK – $5,591

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $6,513

Derel Walker, EDM – $6,534

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $6,142

Kamar Jorden, CGY – $5,260

Brandon Banks, HAM – $7,256

With Duron Carter likely to be used exclusively at defensive back this week after the Riders lost rookie Nick Marshall to the six-game injured list, Roosevelt is clearly the top target for Saskatchewan. The Riders had the second-highest passing yards per attempt last season and their matchup in Ottawa this week projects them to have the second-highest passing yards per attempt this week to go along with the highest projection for passing touchdowns per attempt. Roosevelt had a touchdown in Week 1 despite low overall numbers, and he’s a likely candidate to score again this week.

On the other side of the field in Ottawa on Thursday night, Spencer will try to put his all-around skill set on display versus a Riders defence that looked dominant in Week 1. A good chunk of Spencer’s upside is dependent on his involvement in the return game, so it’s worth noting that if the return duties in Ottawa get spread around a bit more this season, his projection would dip below the other top projected receivers. The Riders allowed the second-fewest passing yards per attempt in 2017 at 7.65. Week 1 saw that number dip to a mere 6.18 yards per attempt versus Toronto’s Ricky Ray. The projections love Spencer, but there is some risk here if the improved pass rush of the Riders gets Trevor Harris off his spot.

Diontae Spencer makes his 2018 season debut Thursday night with the REDBLACKS (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)

Walker started the season off with a bang last Thursday with a 101-yard touchdown reception right off the hop. It’s not reasonable to expect that again this week, but the matchup with Hamilton makes it more likely than against any other opponent. The Eskimos project to pass at a ridiculous 9.4 yards per pass attempt this week, which is a full yard and a half above the league average. Big plays could be in the cards and Walker has big-play ability on every down.

Ellingson lacks the floor that his teammate Spencer has through return yardage but makes up for it through a much higher projection for targets. Ellingson is one of the few receivers that averages over two fantasy points per target in the league while also being one of the most targeted receivers around with 147 in 2017. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the REDBLACKS season opener as the Riders project to give up the fewest passing yards per attempt on the slate.

Jorden had one of the better games by a receiver in week one with 17.7 fantasy points. The matchup with Toronto isn’t ideal as they allowed the second-fewest passing yards per attempt last season, but he should continue to see a consistent workload as the top receiver in Calgary. His price tag is still the lowest amongst the elite options, which makes him worthy of consideration.

Banks is the highest-priced receiver on the slate and has elite scoring upside, but the matchup versus a stingy Eskimos defence (which projects to allow the second fewest fantasy points per pass attempt this week) coupled with his lack involvement in the return game in Week 1 keeps his median projection lower than other similarly priced options. Banks could still be the top scoring receiver in Week 2, but he there are more reasons for doubt here than with the other top options.

Punt Single

Caleb Holley, SSK – $3,806

D’haquille (Duke) Williams, EDM – $3,276

Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $3,229

If looking for cheaper options that have significant upside, the mid-tier of receiving options includes Holley, Williams, and Sinopoli. Holley and Williams are likely to see increased roles in their offence this season, and both have big-play upside. Sinopoli projects for the most targets out of this bunch, giving him the most stable floor for production.

Holley has one of the highest Fantasy points per attempt rates in the CFL at a ridiculous 2.45. The Riders project for the second-highest Fantasy points per pass attempt this week at 1.23 behind only Edmonton at 1.26. There is the potential for huge value out of these two low-priced receivers.

Caleb Holley could be a cost-effective option at receiver in Week 2 (The Canadian Press)

Players that intend to pay up for Reilly and two elite running backs may want to dig even deeper into the bargain bin this week, as there is a host of receivers that project well at minimum price. However, these options also carry their fair bit of risk as their involvement in their respective offences is more volatile. All of Geno Lewis (Alouettes), Drew Wolitarsky (Blue Bombers), Dominique Rhymes (REDBLACKS), Jordan Williams-Lambert (Roughriders), and Shaq Evans (Roughriders) check in at a mere $2,500 while projecting for a value of 3.2-4.2 points per dollar.

DEFENCE

Top Projected

Roughriders – $4,697

Blue Bombers – $5,020

Punt Single

Alouettes – $3,200

The Roughriders’ defence looked stifling versus the Argos in Week 1, holding Wilder to only 3.1 yards per carry, and Ray to a mere 6.75 yards per attempt while notching an interception return for a touchdown to go along with three sacks from free agent addition Charleston Hughes. The Ottawa offence is very talented, but they still project for the fewest passing yards per attempt and fewest rushing fantasy points per attempt in their matchup on Thursday.

The Blue Bombers look more porous than similarly priced options, but their matchup against the Drew Willy-led Alouettes makes them an option. They give up more yardage and points than the Riders, but their matchup keeps their projected points allowed down while their penchant for creating turnovers gives them upside. If you have significant salary leftover for defence this week, they may be the best high-priced option.

Chris Streveler could be a source of points for the opposing defence on Friday night (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

On the other hand, if you have very little left to spend on defence, the Alouettes may be a steal at nearly half the price of the top priced units. The Als forced two sacks against BC in Week 1 and a matchup versus a rookie quarterback is always worth consideration. The improved secondary in Montreal may have a chance to create turnovers this week against a Bombers team that gave up a league worst four miscues in Week 1.

STACKS

Reilly >Walker, Duke Williams, Kenny Stafford

Reilly and Walker make up the most reliable stack in Week 2, but also the most expensive at a total that is over half the salary cap ($20,534). With the other cheap options available at receiver it’s possible to go this route, but it’s risky. Williams is a much more affordable option, making even an Edmonton double stack a reasonable route at a similar price to just Reilly/Walker.

Masoli >Banks, Saunders, Tasker

A Masoli/Saunders stack can be had for nearly the same price as Reilly on his own. The Edmonton pass defence is formidable, but the value of Masoli/Saunders or Masoli/Tasker allows players to spend up elsewhere while still having elite upside.

Trevor Harris >Spencer, Ellingson, Sinopoli, Rhymes

Most people stacking the Ottawa offence will likely go the Harris/Spencer or Harris/Ellingson route, but the one that interests me most is Harris/Rhymes. With Duron Carter likely to start at boundary corner, Rhymes will get the opportunity to face off against a wide receiver much of the night. No matter what coaches may say, that’s a matchup that’s worth trying to exploit at a bargain price for Rhymes.

Harris > Blue Bombers Defence

The Alouettes struggled to generate any offence through the final 45 minutes of their Week 1 game and if the Bombers get up early you can count on Harris getting a significant number of carries in Week 2. There’s a good chance the Bombers defence keeps the score low, setting up a game script in which their defence is a solid option and Harris grinds down the clock.


WEEK 2 PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

Name Salary Team Opp Projection Pts/$ Pass Attempts Rush Carries
Mike REILLY $14,000.00 EDM HAM 30.96714751 2.21 39.26724501 5.95
Jeremiah MASOLI $9,874.00 HAM EDM 21.24552274 2.15 34.40193034 5.5
Trevor HARRIS $9,488.00 OTT SSK 20.28160006 2.14 39.160367 2.06
Chris STREVELER $6,000.00 WPG MTL 18.80868851 3.13 33.29 7.9
Zach COLLAROS $6,465.00 SSK OTT 16.65851305 2.58 32.92560323 0.9
Ricky RAY $9,421.00 TOR CGY 15.92728166 1.69 37.88183881 0.523529412
Bo Levi MITCHELL $7,541.00 CGY TOR 15.71421496 2.08 31.51382923 0.258823529
Drew WILLY $6,000.00 MTL WPG 12.09503313 2.02 34.08100551 2.9
Matthew SHILTZ $5,000.00 MTL WPG 0.585473843 0.12 0.9
James FRANKLIN $4,005.00 TOR CGY 0.535326428 0.13 1.1
Danny O’BRIEN $2,500.00 EDM HAM 0.461581502 0.18 0.5

RUNNING BACKS

Name Salary Team Opp Projection Pts/$ Rush Carries Recieving Targets Punt Returns Kick Returns
James WILDER JR. $7,303.00 TOR CGY 20.8789097 2.86 11.7 6.9
Andrew HARRIS $5,755.00 WPG MTL 19.11841213 3.32 12.3 6.9
C.J. GABLE $7,330.00 EDM HAM 18.30905136 2.5 14.8 4.1
Tyrell SUTTON $6,343.00 MTL WPG 14.05700386 2.22 12.1 4.1
William POWELL $7,640.00 OTT SSK 12.50442784 1.64 12.6 3.9
Terry WILLIAMS $3,859.00 CGY TOR 11.33738707 2.94 6.5 1.304759537 5 3
Martese JACKSON $3,946.00 TOR CGY 10.26784974 2.6 1.6 2.3 4 3
Jerome MESSAM $4,482.00 SSK OTT 10.23106687 2.28 12.1 2.5
Don JACKSON $3,000.00 CGY TOR 8.630706083 2.88 9.9 0.985616096 0 0
Christion JONES $2,500.00 SSK OTT 7.735908181 3.09 0 1.3 4 3
Stefan LOGAN $3,396.00 MTL WPG 7.608420206 2.24 1.5 1.3 4 2
Declan CROSS $2,756.00 TOR CGY 6.280486498 2.28 0.5 2.6
Tre MASON $3,000.00 SSK OTT 5.319768669 1.77 4.7 2.3
Sean THOMAS ERLINGTON $2,500.00 HAM EDM 5.081816106 2.03 0 4.059757447
Mossis MADU JR. $6,067.00 OTT SSK 2.371847493 0.39 2.2 0.7
Anthony GOSSELIN $2,500.00 OTT SSK 1.989309207 0.8 1.1 2.1
Mercer TIMMIS $2,500.00 HAM EDM 1.797788278 0.72 0 1.1

RECEIVERS

Name Salary Team Opp Projection Pts/$ Rush Carries Recieving Targets Punt Returns Kick Returns
Naaman ROOSEVELT $5,591.00 SSK OTT 18.24458406 3.26 0 7.9
Diontae SPENCER $6,513.00 OTT SSK 17.99841996 2.76 0.2 6.6 4 3
Derel WALKER $6,534.00 EDM HAM 16.87251258 2.58 0.325 8.6
Greg ELLINGSON $6,142.00 OTT SSK 16.77263676 2.73 0 7.9
Kamar JORDEN $5,260.00 CGY TOR 15.28319192 2.91 0.09 7.515050936
Brandon BANKS $7,256.00 HAM EDM 15.00653177 2.07 0.1 7.9 0
Darvin ADAMS $6,104.00 WPG MTL 14.57052304 2.39 0.12 6.9
S.J. GREEN $5,965.00 TOR CGY 13.96998454 2.34 0 8.48487629
Eric ROGERS $5,771.00 CGY TOR 13.84902744 2.4 0 6.5
Vidal HAZELTON $3,646.00 EDM HAM 13.61699623 3.73 0 6
Caleb HOLLEY $3,806.00 SSK OTT 13.50143411 3.55 0 5.1
D’haquille WILLIAMS $3,276.00 EDM HAM 13.25435656 4.05 0 7.1
Brad SINOPOLI $3,229.00 OTT SSK 13.08475809 4.05 0 7.9
Weston DRESSLER $4,686.00 WPG MTL 12.43708106 2.65 0 6.6
Chris WILLIAMS $3,798.00 MTL WPG 12.35762048 3.25 0.2 7.1
Luke TASKER $5,563.00 HAM EDM 12.25172219 2.2 0 7.641354501
Jalen SAUNDERS $5,157.00 HAM EDM 12.18539635 2.36 0.1125 7.2
Kenny STAFFORD $3,553.00 EDM HAM 12.11993356 3.41 0 6.6
Armanti EDWARDS $4,040.00 TOR CGY 11.57353887 2.86 0 6.6
Geno LEWIS $2,500.00 MTL WPG 10.59015827 4.24 0.1 4.7
Drew WOLITARSKY $2,500.00 WPG MTL 10.42792823 4.17 0 5.1
Dominique RHYMES $2,500.00 OTT SSK 10.37113327 4.15 0 6.1 0 0
Marken MICHEL $4,380.00 CGY TOR 10.27759685 2.35 0.15 5.4
B.J. CUNNINGHAM $3,888.00 MTL WPG 10.24643564 2.64 0.3 6.3
DaVaris DANIELS $3,942.00 CGY TOR 9.685245499 2.46 0.138461539 5.417077251
Ernest JACKSON $3,385.00 MTL WPG 9.317979804 2.75 0.15 5.8
Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT $2,500.00 SSK OTT 9.232546419 3.69 0 4.6
Jamill SMITH $2,500.00 EDM HAM 9.166029032 3.67 0 1.2 5 3
Adarius BOWMAN $4,481.00 WPG MTL 8.432879029 1.88 0 5.4
Nic DEMSKI $2,500.00 WPG MTL 8.212385188 3.28 0.2 4.5
Shaq EVANS $2,500.00 SSK OTT 8.011863979 3.2 0 4.9 0
Ryan LANKFORD $2,965.00 WPG MTL 7.888296133 2.66 0 2.1 0 3
Devon BAILEY $2,500.00 SSK OTT 7.156107818 2.86 0 1.7
Brian TYMS $2,500.00 TOR CGY 6.440678477 2.58 0 5.4
Natey ADJEI $2,500.00 EDM HAM 5.841570347 2.34 0 3.4
Mike JONES $2,500.00 HAM EDM 5.394306877 2.16 0 3.9
Jimmy RALPH $2,500.00 TOR CGY 5.284575641 2.11 0 3.1
Joshua STANFORD $2,500.00 SSK OTT 4.276223899 1.71 0 2.4
Reggie BEGELTON $2,500.00 CGY TOR 4.163567815 1.67 0 2.2
Juwan BRESCACIN $2,500.00 CGY TOR 3.988987222 1.6 0 2.2
Nate BEHAR $2,500.00 EDM HAM 2.764550282 1.11 0 1.9
Stephen ADEKOLU $2,500.00 MTL WPG 2.760090976 1.1 0 3.3
Malcolm WILLIAMS $2,500.00 TOR CGY 2.688868172 1.08 0 2.2