Start vs. Sit: REDBLACKS defence not worth the risk vs. Mitchell and Stamps

Brandon C. Williams

CFL.ca

A Week 2 filled with one-sided affairs should be balanced out by more competitive action in Week 3. However, this might be the week where the some of the most used players in TSN CFL Fantasy football will need to be avoided.

Who starts and who sits? Let’s find out.

Ottawa (1-0-0) at Calgary (2-0-0)

Thursday | 9:00 p.m. ET

Start: Bo Levi Mitchell, QB, Calgary, $8,162 salary

A game featuring two of the top three defences in the league requires a deeper dive into the numbers to find a potential starter who can put up points. Enter Mitchell, who leads the league with an average of 14.7 yards in passing depth. Mitchell also tops all CFL pivots with 19 pass attempts of 20 or more yards, which translates to one deep ball almost every three attempts. Even with Don Jackson ($3,500) and Terry Williams ($4,562) giving the Stamps a two-headed ground game, Mitchell is going to take shots downfield, especially now that Eric Rogers ($6,815) is healthy and readjusted to playing up north. Although Ottawa leads the league in opponents passing efficiency, keep in mind that Mitchell averaged 23.4 Fantasy points in two games against the REDBLACKS last season and could also have Marken Michel ($4,343) back off the one-game injured list, giving him even more firepower.

Sit: Ottawa Defence, $3,200 salary

Fantasy players looking for a defence on the cheap shouldn’t look toward the REDBLACKS as a bargain play this week. Ottawa looked dominant in last week’s win over Saskatchewan, allowing only 327 total yards and recording three sacks, yet the Stampeders’ offence comes in averaging a league-best 484 yards per game. The REDBLACKS will be hard-pressed to contain both Mitchell and his fleet of receivers while trying to slow down running back threats Jackson and Williams when Calgary goes to the ground game. Of the four defences sitting at $3,200, Ottawa’s is the one which could be exploited in a very big way.

Winnipeg (1-1-0) at Hamilton (1-1-0)

Friday | 7:00 p.m. ET

Start: Mercer Timmis, RB, Hamilton, $3,000 salary

The league’s second-leading rusher, Timmis is the hot hand in a Ticats offence that is averaging 452 total yards. Coming off last week’s 133-yard, two-major breakout against the Eskimos, Timmis goes against a Bombers run defence that allows 5.4 yards per carry. The 220-pounder showed off his open field skills on his 44-yard touchdown run that put the game away against Edmonton and will benefit from Jeremiah Masoli ($9,950) and a passing attack that is second in the league averaging 10.4 yards per completion. Timmis isn’t a one-week wonder, and a strong follow-up effort here will only strengthen his grip on the starting job once Alex Green returns to the roster.

Sit: Weston Dressler, WR, Winnipeg, $4,474 salary

Chris Streveler ($6,217) is spreading the ball around, leaving Darvin Adams ($6,266) as the one receiver to get a significant number of targets from the rookie quarterback. Dressler took a back seat in Week 2, catching just two passes for 24 yards to go with one rushing attempt. With the Bombers pounding opponents on the ground (CFL-high 191 yards per game), the number of passing attempts have diminished. Winnipeg is one of only two teams (Ottawa) with more rushing attempts (63) than passing attempts (62), which means Streveler and Andrew Harris ($6,392) will see most of the touches. It also means Dressler and the rest of the Bombers receiving corps will have to adjust to the more balanced attack of the offence.

BC (1-0-0) at Edmonton (1-1-0)

Friday | 10:00 p.m. ET

Start: D’haquille Williams, WR, Edmonton, $3,775 salary

Williams comes into Week 3 averaging 22.4 yards per catch and is averaging 15.5 Fantasy points in his first two games while also seizing the coveted WR2 role in the Eskimos passing game. He’s already shown a knack for torturing the Lions’ secondary, having recorded two of his four 100-yard games last season at the expense of the BC defence. Fantasy players will want to keep Williams plugged in the lineup if he remains a bargain, a fact that is changing with each long toss Mike Reilly ($14,000) throws in his direction.

Sit: C.J. Gable, RB, Edmonton, $6,474 salary

Two games, 26 touches, 93 total yards, 3.57 yards per touch, no touchdowns. This isn’t what Fantasy players were expecting out of Gable, whose sluggish start is the reason why the Eskimos are eighth in rushing yards. Make no mistake: Gable is certainly capable of a week of 20-25 Fantasy points, but after the first two weeks, Fantasy players can be forgiven if they choose not to go down that road a third time. With the likes of Jackson, Timmis and Terry Williams coming into Week 3 with bargain salaries, building the hopes of solid Fantasy production on the foundation of Gable is too risky right now.

Montreal (0-2-0) vs. Saskatchewan (1-1-0)

Saturday | 9:00 p.m. ET

Start: Caleb Holley, WR, Saskatchewan, $3,606 salary

With Duron Carter expected to play in the secondary for another week, the door is yawning for someone to complement Naaman Roosevelt ($5,162). Holley was one of the few bright spots in last week’s loss to the Stampeders, catching three passes for 71 yards giving him an average of 23.6 yards per catch on his five receptions this season. The Alouettes are allowing a staggering 80.7 per cent completion rate to opposing passers thus far and are last in both opponent’s quarterback rating (100) and opponent’s passing efficiency (142.9). The last time Holley faced the Alouettes, he had 83 yards and a touchdown during the Week 19 victory last season, finishing with 14.3 Fantasy points. There’s a great chance he can exceed that total this week.

Sit: Tyrell Sutton, Alouettes, $5,982 salary

Montreal’s offence continues to struggle, which means fewer touches for Sutton, who had just seven in last week’s loss to the Blue Bombers. The Alouettes are averaging only 4.7 yards per play, putting pressure on Sutton to be the one player who can bail out the offence either as a runner or receiver. It doesn’t help Sutton’s cause that the Roughriders defence is second in the league in yards per carry allowed (4.4) and fourth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (84). Sutton will continue to be productive, but he’s not worth the investment until the offence finally shows an upward trend.

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