Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca
One of the most important skills a Fantasy player can learn is to value process over results. Engaging in the practice of evaluating your research and decision-making processes each week is the road to long-term success rather than simply evaluating how your scores turned out.
You can always refine your process. You can’t control results. This week the projections love Andrew Harris again despite him having had a pedestrian outing versus the Argos. I’m not saying you must play Harris again, but I’m saying you should probably consider playing Harris again.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
Trevor Harris, OTT – $8,405
Punt Single
Travis Lulay, BC – $6,043
The Lions are not a good pass defence. They are allowing 8.67 yards per pass attempt – third-worst in the league – while the Eskimos’ pass offence leads the league in yards per attempt at 9.62 and passing touchdowns with 14. There is a little danger that scores could come on the ground this week for Edmonton as the Lions defence shares the league lead (with the Eskimos) in rushing touchdowns allowed with 10. On the bright side, those could all wind up being one-yard Reilly QB dives into the end zone. The Riders’ defence had Reilly on his heels much of last week, but the Lions’ defence doesn’t present nearly as difficult a struggle to overcome.
Last week, the Alouettes’ defence gave up another two passing touchdowns and essentially got Jeremiah Masoli and the Ticats’ passing offence off the schneid. This week it’s Harris and the REDBLACKS’ turn. Harris had a solid Week 8 but overall his scoring rates have been down significantly from 2017 levels. The Als allow double the league average in touchdowns per pass attempt and allow the second-most yards per pass (9.17) while the REDBLACKS lead the league in total pass attempts (260) and percentage of passing plays run (62.3%). All signs point to a big week for Harris at a significant discount to Reilly.
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Lulay hasn’t been running at the rates that he has in previous seasons, holding his overall projection down each week. That said, any quarterback that can pass for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown versus Calgary is certainly worth consideration. The Eskimos allow 2.3 yards more per pass attempt on defence and three times the rate of passing touchdowns per attempt. In two of his three games as the starter this season, he has faced Winnipeg and Calgary which are the two toughest matchups in the league in terms of passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed per attempt and he was still serviceable. The Edmonton defence has similar numbers to Ottawa, so the discount in salary at those rates is enticing.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected
Andrew Harris, WPG – $10,136
C.J. Gable, EDM – $6,932
William Powell, OTT – $7,406
Punt Single
Travon Van, BC – $4,816
Harris is back following the Bombers’ bye but his price hasn’t gone anywhere. Five figures are a lot to spend on a non-quarterback and last time players tried it in Week 7 they got burned. Harris’ Week 9 matchup versus Hamilton is probably too much to ignore though as the Ticats continue to allow a league-high 6.24 yards per carry on defence. In their first bout this season, the Bombers’ offence languished a bit as Chris Streveler struggled, and Harris owners were bailed out by garbage time receptions versus the Hamilton prevent coverage. Harris should have an easier go of it this time.
Gable has shown some signs of life with touchdowns in each of his last two games and the matchup with BC this week may see that trend continue as they share the lead (with Edmonton) in rushing TDs allowed with 10. The Lions’ rush defence will not be stronger versus the run than they were in Week 3 when they allowed 24.2 Fantasy points to Gable, as defensive ends Odell Willis and Shawn Lemon are both eager pass rushers that struggle with gap responsibility and contain. The league’s third-worst rush defence will likely see that 5.26 yards per rush number climb this week.
Powell’s production is somewhat of an enigma wrapped up in a puzzle box and stored in an escape room. Through his first three games, he seemed somewhat unstoppable on the ground averaging 6.45 yards per carry, but over his past four games he has averaged a mere 2.92 yards per carry, which is quite a precipitous drop especially considering two of those matchups were versus BC and Hamilton. The Montreal defence, surprisingly, allows the second fewest yards per rush attempt this season at only 4.49 so it seems unlikely Powell gets back on track this week given Ottawa’s propensity to score through the air and Montreal’s propensity to allow it.
One of the best value plays on the slate comes in the form of Van, who will start for the Lions at running back after Jeremiah Johnson re-aggravated his ankle injury in practice on Tuesday. Van saw some work last week returning kicks, filling in for the injured Chris Rainey, but this week the return of Rainey and the loss of Johnson means he’ll fill the lead back role. Van has seen significant work as a lead back before in 2016 and 2017 for Ottawa and Edmonton with a career 4.6 yards per carry average and notable receiving skills. The matchup with the Eskimos that allow the leagues’ second highest rate of yards per rush attempt (5.76) and a league-high 10 rushing TDs makes Van a solid play even if it weren’t at a big discount.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected
Duke Williams, EDM – $8,697
Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $8,041
Diontae Spencer, OTT – $7,673
Derel Walker, EDM – $7,921
Greg Ellingson, OTT – $5,955
Emmanuel Arceneaux, BC – $5,810
Kenny Stafford, EDM – $5,043
Punt Single(s)
R.J. Harris, OTT – $2,500
Kenbrell Thompkins, WPG – $2,500
Geno Lewis, MTL – $2,500
Williams was a big swing and miss versus the Riders last Thursday but was one unfortunate review away from another 97-yard touchdown which would have completely changed his stat line. There’s no reason to believe the matchup versus BC will slow him down as the Lions allow 8.67 yards per pass attempt – third highest in the league. He’s the most consistent and dangerous receiver in the league right now. His teammate, Walker, finally reasserted himself last week with all the attention being given to Williams, and both make solid options as a WR1 with Walker likely being the lower owned and less expensive option.
Sinopoli continues to accrue games with double digit targets, making him the fourth most targeted receiver in the CFL through eight weeks – only two behind Williams. His yards per catch is also up a full yard over his career average. The matchup with the Alouettes only sweetens the deal as they have allowed a league high 18 passing touchdowns to this point. The Ottawa offence’s passing focus makes Sinopoli a great option while Spencer, coming off a massive Week 8, is also a good option with his added value from the return game. The unexpected dark horse candidate is Greg Ellingson who still projects alright due to his 2017 rates but who has struggled to get on track at all this season. The steep price discount to below $6K in this matchup makes him a potential steal.
This best mid-tier options are a resurgent Arceneaux, who has seen his stock rise again with the return of Lulay under centre. He has been Lulay’s favourite target over the past three weeks and the matchup with Edmonton is appealing in what may be a shootout Thursday night in Vancouver. The Eskimos allow an above average number of TDs and yards per pass attempt making Arceneaux a solid mid-tier play. The other mid-tier player to target is the less heralded but still consistent member of the Eskimos receiving corps, Stafford. Stafford continues to average a solid 6.3 targets per game which is still top 10 in the CFL. The discount in price makes him an appealing stacking option with Reilly in this matchup.
The best bargains on the slate all come in at the low, low, price of only $2,500 with significantly more stability than you might expect at that salary level. Harris has carved out a consistent role in the Ottawa passing game since moving to the boundary slotback position from field wide receiver and has put up at least nine Fantasy points in each game since. That’s not eye-popping production, but it’s excellent given his price tag. Thompkins has a shorter track record but his big-play ability makes him a great option this week following his 51-yard reception in Week 7. The riskiest of these three options is what appeared to be Johnny Manziel’s favourite target in his CFL debut, Lewis, who has good hands and top end speed that may make him a continued favourite of Manziel as he grows in to the role as the Als starting quarterback.
DEFENCE
REDBLACKS – $3,381
At defence, it’s hard to imagine going anywhere other than the Ottawa unit given their discount price and the matchup versus the Alouettes. Manziel looked unprepared for his starting role last week versus the Ticats and Ottawa is an even better Fantasy option given they have created more turnovers and sacks this season the Hamilton defensive unit. Until Manziel proves otherwise, he’s likely the target to attack with Fantasy defences each week.
STACKS
Reilly > Stafford
As much as Reilly/Williams seems to be the clear top pair in the projections, it’s nearly impossible to stack them at this point given their inflated salaries. If going the Reilly route, Stafford may be the best option to stack to allow funds for a top RB spend.
Harris > Sinopoli, Spencer, Harris
At their current salaries, it’s a reasonable option to consider a REDBLACKS double stack involving Harris, Harris and one of Sinopoli or Spencer in this matchup while still having ample room to spend up for a top RB. It’s hard to go the Ellingson route until he proves he can be productive again.
Lulay > Arceneaux, Ricky Collins, Shaq Johnson
Ricky Collins ($4,035) is having a quietly productive comeback season and has been targeted over seven times a game since Lulay took over the QB job. Shaq Johnson is expected to return to the lineup as well this week and is a solid value at only $3,269. Arceneaux has the higher ceiling but a BC double stack is entirely conceivable with three of these players given their discount prices.
WEEK 9 FANTASY PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | BC | 32.88 | 2.35 | 37.19 | 6.50 |
| Trevor HARRIS | QB | $8,405.00 | OTT | MTL | 21.64 | 2.58 | 41.17 | 1.90 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $10,063.00 | HAM | WPG | 20.40 | 2.03 | 36.60 | 4.20 |
| Matt NICHOLS | QB | $7,722.00 | WPG | HAM | 15.96 | 2.07 | 30.90 | 1.10 |
| Travis LULAY | QB | $6,043.00 | BC | EDM | 15.91 | 2.63 | 31.38 | 1.30 |
| Johnny MANZIEL | QB | $7,000.00 | MTL | OTT | 9.50 | 1.36 | 29.30 | 5.00 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $7,843.00 | WPG | HAM | 4.78 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 4.30 |
| Cody FAJARDO | QB | $5,000.00 | BC | EDM | 1.96 | 0.39 | 1.70 | |
| Dominique DAVIS | QB | $5,000.00 | OTT | MTL | 0.26 | 0.05 | 1.70 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $10,136.00 | WPG | HAM | 24.10 | 2.38 | 13.90 | 5.20 | ||
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $6,932.00 | EDM | BC | 16.21 | 2.34 | 14.70 | 3.40 | ||
| William POWELL | RB | $7,406.00 | OTT | MTL | 15.65 | 2.11 | 17.90 | 3.90 | ||
| Chris RAINEY | RB | $6,627.00 | BC | EDM | 14.94 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Travon VAN | RB | $4,816.00 | BC | EDM | 14.28 | 2.97 | 12.40 | 2.30 | ||
| Alex GREEN | RB | $6,686.00 | HAM | WPG | 13.03 | 1.95 | 13.30 | 1.60 | ||
| Tyrell SUTTON | RB | $6,589.00 | MTL | OTT | 11.93 | 1.81 | 11.10 | 4.60 |
RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Recieving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $8,697.00 | EDM | BC | 22.25 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Brad SINOPOLI | WR | $8,041.00 | OTT | MTL | 20.72 | 2.58 | 0.00 | 9.50 | ||
| Diontae SPENCER | WR | $7,673.00 | OTT | MTL | 19.88 | 2.59 | 0.07 | 7.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Derel WALKER | WR | $7,921.00 | EDM | BC | 18.00 | 2.27 | 0.18 | 8.10 | ||
| Greg ELLINGSON | WR | $5,955.00 | OTT | MTL | 15.09 | 2.53 | 0.00 | 8.80 | ||
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $9,190.00 | HAM | WPG | 14.73 | 1.60 | 0.03 | 8.30 | 0.00 | |
| Jalen SAUNDERS | WR | $7,577.00 | HAM | WPG | 14.12 | 1.86 | 0.04 | 7.50 | ||
| Emmanuel ARCENEAUX | WR | $5,810.00 | BC | EDM | 13.95 | 2.40 | 0.02 | 8.30 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $5,043.00 | EDM | BC | 13.77 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 6.70 | ||
| Luke TASKER | WR | $6,566.00 | HAM | WPG | 12.35 | 1.88 | 0.00 | 7.00 | ||
| R.J. HARRIS | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 12.26 | 4.90 | 0.00 | 5.90 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $5,602.00 | BC | EDM | 11.62 | 2.07 | 0.04 | 7.10 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $5,798.00 | WPG | HAM | 10.87 | 1.87 | 0.04 | 6.20 | ||
| Ricky Collins Jr. | WR | $4,035.00 | BC | EDM | 10.76 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| Kenbrell THOMPKINS | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | HAM | 10.69 | 4.27 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Shaq JOHNSON | WR | $3,269.00 | BC | EDM | 10.31 | 3.15 | 0.02 | 5.10 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $4,918.00 | WPG | HAM | 10.23 | 2.08 | 2.70 | 4.90 | ||
| Weston DRESSLER | WR | $4,551.00 | WPG | HAM | 9.81 | 2.15 | 0.60 | 6.20 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 9.08 | 3.63 | 0.10 | 5.10 | ||
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $4,881.00 | MTL | OTT | 9.06 | 1.86 | 0.10 | 6.10 | ||
| Chris WILLIAMS | WR | $4,556.00 | HAM | WPG | 8.07 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Jamill SMITH | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 7.32 | 2.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Terrence TOLIVER | WR | $5,192.00 | HAM | WPG | 6.17 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| TJ GRAHAM | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 6.16 | 2.46 | 0.00 | 4.40 | ||
| Cory WATSON | WR | $2,500.00 | BC | EDM | 6.09 | 2.44 | 0.00 | 3.70 | ||
| Austen HARTLEY | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 5.50 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $2,520.00 | MTL | OTT | 5.16 | 2.05 | 0.05 | 4.90 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | WPG | 5.14 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 3.70 | ||
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | HAM | 5.13 | 2.05 | 0.00 | 2.90 | ||
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 4.27 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 2.50 | ||
| Nate BEHAR | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 3.46 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 2.50 | ||
| George JOHNSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 1.29 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 2.10 | ||
| Bryant MITCHELL | WR | $3,384.00 | EDM | BC | 1.14 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.50 | ||
| Daniel PETERMANN | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | HAM | 0.68 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
