The Canadian Press photo
Points per reception scoring systems make some otherwise easily-dismissed options become important considerations in high-volume situations. That’s certainly the case this week on a slate devoid of high-value salary relief options.
Getting a receiver or two near the minimum price in a difficult matchup but with the opportunity for extra targets allows players to maximize production elsewhere.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
McLeod Bethel-Thompson, TOR – $6,000
Punt Single
Travis Lulay, BC – $6,793
Last time the Eskimos faced the Alouettes back in Week 7, Reilly threw for 415 yards and four touchdowns while adding 27 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Alouettes haven’t shown any improvement on defence since then as they continue to allow the league’s most passing touchdowns (19) and most passing yards (2,633). On a per attempt basis, the Als give up only slightly less than double the league average number of touchdowns per pass attempt and Edmonton has been running the second highest percentage of passing plays in the CFL in 2018 at 61.2 per cent. With a projection for over 40 pass attempts, Reilly is tough to fade even at his price tag.
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Bethel-Thompson really struggled through his first half as the starting quarterback for the Argos but staged an amazing comeback versus the REDBLACKS, leading to 306 passing yards and four touchdowns. Without a large sample of work to draw conclusions from, this projection feels high but the matchup with the Lions helps his cause as they allow the third most passing yards per attempt (8.49) and the Argos project for the third most pass attempts on the slate (35.6). The whole Toronto offence also gets a bump in pace this week as the Lions have allowed the second most plays from scrimmage to opposing offences this season (60.1) behind only the Alouettes.
It’s odd to have a punt option mentioned that is more expensive than a more highly projected player but call this one a gut play. Lulay has injected significant life into the Lions’ offence since regaining the starting job but their games with Jon Jennings under centre continue to hold down some of the macro numbers for the offence. Lulay had his worst statistical output of the season last week versus the Eskimos in which he was under constant pressure from a defensive front that is second in the league in sacks with 20. The Argos have created only seven sacks, which means Lulay should have much more time to throw versus the passing defence allowing the most yards per attempt in the league (9.54). It’s quite conceivable that Lulay gets an extra 4-5 pass attempts than he’s projected for and blows well past his mean projections.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected
Andrew Harris, WPG – $10,590
James Wilder Jr., TOR – $8,999
C.J. Gable, EDM – $7,466
Punt Single
Tre Mason, SSK – $4,000
Harris is the leading man in the league’s most dominant rushing attack which averages over 6.1 yards per carry. This week’s matchup versus Ottawa though will be the stiffest test he’s faced to this point as the REDBLACKS rank only behind the Stampeders and Roughriders vaunted fronts, allowing only 4.71 yards per carry. His usual efficiency won’t likely be possible and it’s unlikely the Bombers blow out the REDBLACKS and give Harris several extra carries down the stretch. If Harris is going to pay off his hefty tag it will have to be through PPR points and a touchdown.
Wilder had a pretty rough start to the season, averaging only 4.3 yards per carry and having workloads ranging from three to 21 carries per game. Thankfully for him, his workload has stabilized a bit in the Argos’ past two games and his efficiency has risen to 4.8 yards per carry. The Lions defence shares the league lead with the Eskimos by allowing 11 rushing touchdowns to this point, which is 68 per cent higher than the league average per carry. He continues to be an important part of the Toronto passing attack as well, making him a less expensive version of Harris in a much more appealing matchup.
James Wilder Jr. looks to continue heating up in a weekend matchup with the Lions (Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca)
It’s been an up and down season for C.J. Gable, but things certainly look up this week in a matchup versus the Alouettes. Montreal is an above average rush defence in terms of yards per carry allowed but with an implied team total of 34.25 in the Vegas lines there’s a pretty good chance Gable will find the endzone this week. It would be nice to have a larger price discount given his lower floor but he’s still the top value this week at the position.
The Stampeders are the toughest matchup in the CFL for opposing running backs, allowing only a league leading 4.39 yards per carry and nearly half the league average of rushing touchdowns per carry. It’s not an opportunity that players should be looking to attack. That said, Mason has seen an increase in his workload following the departure of Jerome Messam and he racked up a ridiculous seven receptions in his last game versus Edmonton. He will still have to compete with Marcus Thigpen for touches but at only $4K, he’s a solid punt option if players are looking for salary relief.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected
Duke Williams, EDM – $8,325
Derel Walker, EDM – $8,559
Kamar Jorden, CGY – $8,069
Kenny Stafford, EDM – $5,275
Diontae Spencer, OTT – $8,270
Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $8,746
Emmanuel Arceneaux, BC – $5,614
Nic Demski, WPG – $5,565
Punt Single(s)
Kenbrell Thompkins, WPG – $2,500
R.J. Harris, OTT – $2,847
Kevin Elliott, BC – $3,606
Geno Lewis, MTL – $2,500
Dominique Rhymes, OTT – $2,500
After a torrid start to the season in which Williams was averaging over 10 targets per game leading to five straight games over 100 yards receiving, his past two games have seen a dip in production as defences have rolled coverage over to him and making room for Walker to re-emerge with two straight games over 100 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns. It would be hard to imagine both receivers having monster game but versus the Alouettes with a projection for over 40 pass attempts, it’s certainly a possibility. However, it’s impossible to fit Reilly, Williams, and Walker in the same lineup, so players will have to pick and choose. Williams is likely to have a little easier matchup out of the slot, so he winds up with a slightly better projection versus the most appealing matchup around for opposing passing games. Stafford is the less heralded and less expensive option of the receiving corps that also gets a bump this week based on increased volume.
The Roughriders’ defence is unlikely to get their doors blown off as they did a couple weeks ago when they spotted the Stampeders a 24-0 lead in the first quarter. However, the loss of Eric Rogers makes Jorden an interesting option as he gets an increased number of opportunities as the top receiving option for Calgary. The Riders are right on league average in terms of both passing touchdowns and yards allowed per attempt, so the matchup may not be as difficult as it may appear for the Stamps offence that leads the league in completions over 30 yards (20) and is third in passing yards per attempt (9.03). The Stamps know how to get vertical.
Kamar Jorden is ready for an increased role in the absence of Eric Rogers (The Canadian Press)
A pair of REDBLACKS round out the top few spots in the projections as Sinopoli continues to average over nine targets a game and Spencer gets his projections shored up with his return game duties. The matchup with Winnipeg isn’t nearly as appealing as it has been in previous seasons as they allow the second lowest rates for passing yards (7.24) and passing touchdowns (0.018) per attempt on the slate. Sheer volume is really what makes any of the Ottawa receivers a viable option as the REDBLACKS project for the most pass attempts of any team this week (40.1). The opportunity to get points per reception makes cheaper Ottawa receivers like Ellingson, Harris and Rhymes interesting options given the volume expected.
Some in the Fantasy community had high hopes for Arceneaux last week after an early 39-yard reception but that wound up being his only catch of the game. This week’s matchup versus Toronto promises the most generous secondary in the league to work against with an appealing mid-tier price tag well below other teams’ top receivers. The other solid mid-tier option is Winnipeg’s very own Demski who has seen his role in he offence increase continually this season with work as a receiver and ball carrier. The loss of Weston Dressler to injury this week should only increase his opportunities to produce versus an Ottawa secondary allowing well above the league average yards per pass attempt (8.22) and passing touchdowns per attempt with only Montreal and Toronto worse in that category.
There is a plethora of cheap receivers available for salary relief as Ottawa’s Harris and Rhymes check in below $3K in a high-volume situation. The Bombers’ Thompkins may also see a few more opportunities to showcase his speed with the loss of Dressler. Elliott is also likely to stay in the starting lineup this week with the loss of Ricky Collins Jr. to a hamstring injury and although he’s a little more expensive than some of the other punt options, his matchup with Toronto makes him an exciting play.
DEFENCE
Stampeders – $6,089
Eskimos – $3,745
The Roughriders offence continues to struggle to get any sustained traction and the dismissal of top WR Duron Carter this week won’t make them better. Calgary continues to be near the top of the league in forced two and outs (47), forced turnovers (25), and sacks (17) making them the top option versus the Riders who are second worst in the league in terms of offensive points scored per game (16.7), ahead of only the Alouettes.
The Eskimos come in at a significant salary saving over the top projected Stampeders on the merit of their being second in the league in sacks with 20 in a matchup versus the Alouettes who have allowed a league high 27 sacks. They had six sacks in their last matchup a couple weeks ago and should have a field day again versus the Als, who score the fewest points per game in the CFL with only 13.8 per game. The possibility of Manziel having to miss the game in concussion protocol only makes the matchup more enticing.
STACKS
Reilly >Williams, Walker, Stafford
It is tough to make an Edmonton double stack fit but with a more difficult matchup for Andrew Harris this week it’s not a terrible decision to stack Reilly with Stafford and one of Williams or Walker while going cheaper at running back. The Alouettes are that good an opportunity.
Lulay >Arceneaux, Elliott
It’s a little ridiculous that it’s possible to double stack the Lions passing game versus the most generous secondary in the CFL for nearly the price of Reilly alone. If players are paying up at RB, this may be the route to go.
Bethel-Thompson > S.J. Green, Wilder
If you’re a Bethel-Thompson believer, this is the stack for you. Green is a high-risk play as the has two of his seven games this season over 23 fantasy points but four of the other five have seen him in single digit points. Wilder should see a host of opportunities as a receiver in this game making him a stacking option in the passing game.
WEEK 10 FANTASY PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | MTL | 37.35 | 2.67 | 40.22 | 5.80 |
| Mcleod BETHEL-THOMPSON | QB | $6,000.00 | TOR | BC | 24.62 | 4.10 | 36.50 | 4.10 |
| Matt NICHOLS | QB | $8,002.00 | WPG | OTT | 20.07 | 2.51 | 31.47 | 1.90 |
| Bo Levi MITCHELL | QB | $8,907.00 | CGY | SSK | 19.24 | 2.16 | 30.92 | 0.45 |
| Travis LULAY | QB | $6,793.00 | BC | TOR | 17.52 | 2.58 | 32.40 | 1.30 |
| Trevor HARRIS | QB | $9,369.00 | OTT | WPG | 17.05 | 1.82 | 40.30 | 1.70 |
| Zach COLLAROS | QB | $5,945.00 | SSK | CGY | 11.15 | 1.88 | 28.87 | 0.70 |
| Johnny MANZIEL | QB | $7,000.00 | MTL | EDM | 8.46 | 1.21 | 29.30 | 3.50 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $5,000.00 | WPG | OTT | 4.47 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 3.90 |
| Cody FAJARDO | QB | $5,000.00 | BC | TOR | 1.95 | 0.39 | 1.70 | |
| James FRANKLIN | QB | $8,495.00 | TOR | BC | 1.94 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Brandon BRIDGE | QB | $5,709.00 | SSK | CGY | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Dominique DAVIS | QB | $5,000.00 | OTT | WPG | 0.21 | 0.04 | 1.70 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $10,590.00 | WPG | OTT | 22.47 | 2.12 | 13.97 | 5.50 | ||
| James WILDER JR. | RB | $8,999.00 | TOR | BC | 19.31 | 2.15 | 11.60 | 5.10 | ||
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $7,466.00 | EDM | MTL | 17.21 | 2.30 | 16.80 | 3.60 | ||
| Jeremiah JOHNSON | RB | $7,345.00 | BC | TOR | 16.51 | 2.25 | 12.50 | 3.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William POWELL | RB | $7,921.00 | OTT | WPG | 15.63 | 1.97 | 17.00 | 3.50 | ||
| Chris RAINEY | RB | $7,374.00 | BC | TOR | 14.74 | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Tyrell SUTTON | RB | $6,807.00 | MTL | EDM | 14.26 | 2.10 | 11.30 | 4.60 | ||
| Don JACKSON | RB | $6,283.00 | CGY | SSK | 10.85 | 1.73 | 12.90 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus THIGPEN | RB | $5,988.00 | SSK | CGY | 8.60 | 1.44 | 7.80 | 2.90 | ||
| Tre MASON | RB | $4,000.00 | SSK | CGY | 8.30 | 2.08 | 9.80 | 3.10 | ||
| Martese JACKSON | RB | $3,809.00 | TOR | BC | 8.22 | 2.16 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Terry WILLIAMS | RB | $4,345.00 | CGY | SSK | 7.81 | 1.80 | 5.10 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Declan CROSS | RB | $2,913.00 | TOR | BC | 6.49 | 2.23 | 0.00 | 2.80 | ||
| Christion JONES | RB | $3,325.00 | SSK | CGY | 5.73 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| William STANBACK | RB | $2,500.00 | MTL | EDM | 5.47 | 2.19 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 3.00 |
WIDE RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $8,325.00 | EDM | MTL | 23.08 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 10.00 | ||
| Derel WALKER | WR | $8,559.00 | EDM | MTL | 22.03 | 2.57 | 0.16 | 8.80 | ||
| Kamar JORDEN | WR | $8,069.00 | CGY | SSK | 19.06 | 2.36 | 0.10 | 8.10 | 0.00 | |
| Diontae SPENCER | WR | $8,270.00 | OTT | WPG | 15.94 | 1.93 | 0.07 | 7.30 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Brad SINOPOLI | WR | $8,746.00 | OTT | WPG | 15.75 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 9.20 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $5,275.00 | EDM | MTL | 15.71 | 2.98 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| S.J. GREEN | WR | $7,104.00 | TOR | BC | 13.26 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 9.39 | ||
| Greg ELLINGSON | WR | $5,952.00 | OTT | WPG | 12.70 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 8.90 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $5,565.00 | WPG | OTT | 12.45 | 2.24 | 2.70 | 5.30 | ||
| Emmanuel ARCENEAUX | WR | $5,614.00 | BC | TOR | 12.33 | 2.20 | 0.02 | 7.10 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $5,646.00 | WPG | OTT | 12.28 | 2.17 | 0.04 | 6.70 | ||
| Kenbrell THOMPKINS | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | OTT | 11.78 | 4.71 | 0.00 | 5.50 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $5,448.00 | BC | TOR | 11.55 | 2.12 | 0.04 | 6.50 | ||
| DaVaris DANIELS | WR | $5,557.00 | CGY | SSK | 11.46 | 2.06 | 0.10 | 5.80 | ||
| Kevin ELLIOTT | WR | $3,606.00 | BC | TOR | 10.27 | 2.85 | 0.00 | 6.10 | ||
| Marken MICHEL | WR | $4,766.00 | CGY | SSK | 10.09 | 2.12 | 0.05 | 5.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| R.J. HARRIS | WR | $2,847.00 | OTT | WPG | 9.13 | 3.21 | 0.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Naaman ROOSEVELT | WR | $5,596.00 | SSK | CGY | 9.06 | 1.62 | 0.00 | 6.40 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | EDM | 8.27 | 3.31 | 0.09 | 5.10 | ||
| Armanti EDWARDS | WR | $4,288.00 | TOR | BC | 8.24 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 5.20 | ||
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $4,522.00 | MTL | EDM | 8.22 | 1.82 | 0.10 | 6.10 | ||
| Dominique RHYMES | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | WPG | 8.11 | 3.24 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT | WR | $2,646.00 | SSK | CGY | 7.48 | 2.83 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Jamill SMITH | WR | $2,610.00 | EDM | MTL | 7.47 | 2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Rodney SMITH | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | BC | 6.94 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | CGY | 6.42 | 2.57 | 0.00 | 5.90 | 0.00 | |
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | MTL | 6.05 | 2.42 | 0.00 | 3.20 | ||
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | OTT | 6.04 | 2.42 | 0.00 | 3.10 | ||
| Nate BEHAR | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | MTL | 5.94 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 3.50 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $2,788.00 | MTL | EDM | 5.47 | 1.96 | 0.05 | 4.90 | ||
| Cory WATSON | WR | $2,500.00 | BC | TOR | 5.10 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 2.90 | ||
| Caleb HOLLEY | WR | $3,096.00 | SSK | CGY | 4.98 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 3.60 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $2,902.00 | MTL | EDM | 4.67 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 4.90 | ||
| Juwan BRESCACIN | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | SSK | 4.63 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 2.30 | ||
| Llevi NOEL | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | BC | 4.49 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Lemar DURANT | WR | $2,744.00 | CGY | SSK | 3.11 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 4.30 | ||
| TJ GRAHAM | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | EDM | 3.08 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Richard SINDANI | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | SSK | 2.90 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 1.30 | ||
| Malcolm WILLIAMS | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | BC | 2.70 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 1.90 | ||
| Joshua STANFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | CGY | 2.25 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 2.30 | ||
| Bryant MITCHELL | WR | $3,456.00 | EDM | MTL | 1.27 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
