CFL Fantasy Podcast, Week 13: The Jolly Green Fantasy Giant

CFL.ca Staff

TORONTO — Is it sustainable?

That’s often the question when it comes to fantasy sports, where users are choosing players and their salaries based off historic performance. Recent production can be either misleading or indicative of what’s to come, while short bursts of excellence and small sample sizes are especially confusing.

The debate this week shifts to Ticats running back Alex Green, whose 93.9 Fantasy Points over four contests this season since returning from injury have made him the most productive running back in the CFL. Green is averaging 23.5 points per game, with a high of 31.3 points and a floor of 19.4 points.

With a rematch against the struggling Argos, is it safe to expect continued elite production from the Ticats’ bell cow back?

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Pat Steinberg, Jeff Krever and Hannah Nordman agree that it’s a stretch to say Green will continue to score the way he has. The Hawaii native has scored two touchdowns in three of his four games this year, totaling seven in the process while putting him over a touchdown per game in his career with 12 in 10 contests.

On the other hand, with a minimum of 15 carries in each of his four games this year, to go along with eight total catches, Green’s floor likely remains high — even if he isn’t finding the end zone multiple times in a game.

“Are we talking about multiple touchdowns per game? That’s probably unrealistic,” said Steinberg. “But for him to be a threat to score a major each game, I think it’s there. I think the fact that he’s being used as an option inside the 20, especially when they get close to the goal line, that’s promising to me.”

The Ticats’ high-flying offence also comes into play when considering Green’s production. The Ticats have the most productive offence in the CFL, averaging 21.3 more yards per game than the next closest group, the Edmonton Eskimos. They average a league-best 7.4 yards per play, 6.9 yards on first-down plays, and are second in the CFL with 58.3 plays per game.

In short, Green is going to have a lot of chances with the ball in his hands, with many coming on opponents’ side of midfield.

“When I look at gaudy touchdown numbers like that, the analytical part of me says that’s not sustainable — that you shouldn’t overpay for past results,” said Krever. “But with Green, it actually makes a ton of sense because the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are so efficient offensively.

“Of course he’s getting touchdowns. If they’re scoring five touchdowns a game, Alex Green is going to be part of that. At his cost right now, he should be in our lineups every week.”

For Nordman, the cost is the biggest sticking point. With a salary of $7,548, Green is on the affordable end of the RB1 spectrum when compared to names like Andrew Harris ($9,157), James Wilder Jr. ($8,729) and William Powell ($8,721).

“Alex Green has been in my lineup every week,” said Nordman. “He’s single-handedly saved my point totals. At $7,500, that’s not a bad price either. I’m probably going to continue riding that Alex Green train until he gets up in that $8,500 range.”

This week’s podcast covers injury replacements for Derel Walker, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Kamar Jorden; the up-and-down play of Trevor Harris; injury news; locks and bargains of the week and more.

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