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September 11, 2018

A usual suspect leads the way as CFL Simulation returns

Larry MacDougal, CFL.ca

TORONTO — With Mark’s Labour Day Weekend come and gone, playoff races are officially under close watch heading into Week 14 of the CFL season.

With that, CFL Simulation is back for another year to track playoff and Grey Cup odds the rest of the way — and some of the early results may come as a surprise.

Not shocking to anyone is that the Calgary Stampeders lead the way to make the post-season and a heavy favourite to win the Grey Cup this November. Meanwhile, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have positioned themselves to be the Beast of the East, having the second highest odds to be joining Commissioner Randy Ambrosie on the stage in Edmonton.

With a substantial difference between themselves and the rest of the East Division, the Tiger-Cats appear in the top three most likely Grey Cup matchups.


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With just one meeting thus far, and it coming in Week 1 of the schedule, the matchup between the Calgary Stampeders and Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 14 gives a glimpse into the highest projected pairing for the 106th Grey Cup.

We break it all down below, and remember — it’s only a simulation. The Grey Cup isn’t won on paper, nor is it handed out in September.

New this year, we’ve included each team’s projected regular season record, as well as the likelihood of each team having a home playoff date come November.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

 

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

Team (Projected 2018 Record) Projection
Calgary Stampeders (13-5) 99.99%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (11-7) 99.73%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-7) 99.63%
Edmonton Eskimos (11-7) 99.27%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (9-9) 96.23%
BC Lions (8-10) 53.75%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-11) 40.27%
Montreal Alouettes (6-12) 7.28%
Toronto Argonauts (5-13) 3.85%

 

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME

Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 99.66%
Calgary Stampeders 96.90%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 95.45%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 62.68%
Edmonton Eskimos 39.42%
Montreal Alouettes 2.87%
Toronto Argonauts 2.02%
BC Lions 0.72%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 0.28%

 

ODDS TO WIN EAST

Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 92.04%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 7.85%
Montreal Alouettes 0.07%
Toronto Argonauts 0.04%

 

ODDS TO WIN WEST

Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders 79.39%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 14.79%
Edmonton Eskimos 5.70%
BC Lions 0.11%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers < 0.01%

 

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 77.54%
Calgary Stampeders 61.14%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 22.64%
Edmonton Eskimos 17.29%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 13.67%
BC Lions 4.97%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 2.32%
Montreal Alouettes 0.26%
Toronto Argonauts 0.17%

 

ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders 41.14%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 28.25%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 14.53%
Edmonton Eskimos 11.68%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 2.37%
BC Lions 1.40%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 0.52%
Montreal Alouettes 0.07%
Toronto Argonauts 0.04%

 

MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS

Team Projection
Calgary-Hamilton 47.21%
Saskatchewan-Hamilton 17.18%
Edmonton-Hamilton 12.94%
Calgary-Ottawa 8.74%
Saskatchewan-Ottawa 2.77%

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.