The Canadian Press
TORONTO — Week 14 mixed things up a bit when it came to another round of CFL Simulation.
Returning last week, CFL Simulation certainly didn’t shock anyone with the Stampeders taking the top spot as the most likely team to win the Grey Cup at the conclusion of this season. However, it was more so the situation in the East Division and how heavily the simulation had the Hamilton Tiger-Cats favoured in the top three likely matchups for the 106th Grey Cup.
Much of the shake-up came from the East Division as a result of the 30-25 victory by the Ottawa REDBLACKS and the home loss the Hamilton Tiger-Cats endured to the Calgary Stampeders. As a result, the REDBLACKS leap ahead of the Ticats, taking the advantage with the higher projections coming out of the East Division.
Saskatchewan, who was projected as the second-most-likely team to win the West Division, slouched down in the simulation, giving way to the Eskimos to step ahead to give Alberta a representative in all of the top-five projected Grey Cup matchups.
With the simulation, Calgary secures themselves in the top-three highest projected matchups for the 106th Grey Cup in Edmonton.
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The window narrows even more for teams like Winnipeg, Montreal, and Toronto. With two of the three teams spending Week 14 off on a bye, and Montreal losing to the Lions, the chances of either of them making the playoffs grows slim. Winnipeg will be hoping to compete for the crossover to the East Division come playoff-time, but as for Toronto and Montreal, they’re looking at less than a two per cent chance of playing football come November.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2018 Record) | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders (14-4) | > 99.99% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (11-7) | 99.88% |
| Edmonton Eskimos (11-7) | 98.78% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-9) | 98.70% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-8) | 95.78% |
| BC Lions (9-9) | 87.80% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-11) | 16.68% |
| Toronto Argonauts (5-13) | 1.27% |
| Montreal Alouettes (5-13) | 1.11% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 99.88% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 99.85% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 98.64% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 59.64% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 30.91% |
| BC Lions | 9.22% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.78% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.70% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 0.28% |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 65.88% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 34.11% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.01% |
| Toronto Argonauts | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 97.97% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 1.15% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.83% |
| BC Lions | 0.06% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 77.63% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 54.43% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 29.87% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 16.52% |
| BC Lions | 13.19% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 7.50% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 0.77% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.06% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.03% |
ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 62.85% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 11.58% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 10.94% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.49% |
| BC Lions | 5.34% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 3.61% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 0.17% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.01% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 42.32% |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 23.07% |
| Calgary-BC | 7.85% |
| Edmonton-Ottawa | 7.67% |
| Edmonton-Hamilton | 4.65% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
