The Canadian Press
TORONTO — Week 15’s CFL Simulation has the playoff crossover taking the upper-hand with both the BC Lions and Winnipeg Blue Bombers being favoured over a third East Division team.
The Calgary Stampeders maintain their standing as the league’s highest ranked team, as well as being the most heavily-favoured squad heading into Week 16 after three weeks of CFL Simulation. Calgary maintains their projected season record of 14-4 and projected of making the playoffs in each of the 10,000 simulations that were run following Week 15. That being said, the Stamps have yet to officially clinch a playoff spot but are certainly in a undeniable position to do so in the coming of weeks.
Ottawa has emerged as the favourite in the East Division following their win over the Edmonton Eskimos this past week at home. As a result, the REDBLACKS sit in a similar situation as the Stampeders as they too have been projected of making the playoffs each time the simulation was run this week.
With their win over the Argos in Week 15, the Roughriders push themselves into the top three projected matchups for the 106th Grey Cup, coming in at the No. 3 spot versus the REDBLACKS.
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Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2018 Record) | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders (14-4) | > 99.99% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (11-7) | > 99.99% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-9) | 99.26% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-8) | 97.72% |
| Edmonton Eskimos (10-8) | 90.33% |
| BC Lions (9-9) | 85.13% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-10) | 26.53% |
| Toronto Argonauts (5-13) | 0.84% |
| Montreal Alouettes (5-13) | 0.19% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | > 99.99% |
| Calgary Stampeders | > 99.99% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 99.25% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 58.39% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 25.40% |
| BC Lions | 14.79% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1.47% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.58% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.17% |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 83.79% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 16.21% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
| Toronto Argonauts | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 98.03% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 1.78% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.13% |
| BC Lions | 0.06% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 80.81% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 68.64% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 21.93% |
| BC Lions | 10.10% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 9.64% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 7.64% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1.21% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.03% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 60.22% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 20.17% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 5.67% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 5.28% |
| BC Lions | 4.58% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 3.70% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 0.38% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
| Toronto Argonauts | < 0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 55.39% |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 17.82% |
| Saskatchewan-Ottawa | 5.92% |
| Calgary-BC | 4.47% |
| Edmonton-Ottawa | 3.66% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
