The Canadian Press
TORONTO — With large part to do with their 30-3 victory in Edmonton, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers projections have increased across the board, and in turn has knocked the Eskimos towards the bottom of a majority of the result boards.
The Calgary Stampeders have officially clinched a playoff spot following their victory over the Argonauts in Week 16, as they continue to hold the highest odds of winning the West Division and going on to win the 106th Grey Cup in Edmonton. Meanwhile, in the East, the Alouettes have been eliminated from contention of winning the East Division, however, they still hold a chance of earning a playoff spot in the event that they better their record to the point of preventing a West Division crossover.
Ottawa and Hamilton remain in tight contention for the top spot of the East Division as both teams will likely lock up playoff spots in the coming of weeks. Ottawa, who spent Week 16 on a bye, will be taking on Winnipeg on Friday, which will have major implications on either division’s playoff picture. As for the Ticats, they will spend Week 17 on their final bye of the season following their 40-10 win over the BC Lions.
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats pushed their way into being matched up against Calgary in the highest projected pairing to square off in this year’s Grey Cup. The two claimed the top pairing in the initial CFL Simulation for this season following the Labour Day rematches.
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Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2018 Record) | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders (14-4) | Clinched |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (11-7) | 99.98% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8) | 99.98% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-7) | 99.61% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8) | 91.88% |
| BC Lions (8-10) | 57.87% |
| Edmonton Eskimos (8-10) | 50.49% |
| Toronto Argonauts (5-13) | 0.19% |
| Montreal Alouettes (4-14) | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 99.99% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 99.98% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 99.96% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 81.52% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 14.54% |
| BC Lions | 2.13% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 1.82% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.06% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 55.44% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 44.56% |
| Toronto Argonauts | < 0.01% |
| Montreal Alouettes | X |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 98.49% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 1.51% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | < 0.01% |
| BC Lions | < 0.01% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 80.58% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 52.55% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 42.39% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 12.14% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 9.59% |
| BC Lions | 1.95% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.78% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.02% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 58.99% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 18.33% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 9.58% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 7.52% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 4.99% |
| BC Lions | 0.45% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.14% |
| Toronto Argonauts | < 0.01% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 42.30% |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 34.18% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 5.09% |
| Saskatchewan-Hamilton | 4.85% |
| Saskatchewan-Ottawa | 4.03% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
