October 3, 2018

Weekly Predictor: Too late to be looking for firsts

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers can relish their victory over the Eskimos last week, but now it’s onward to Week 17 where they’ll be facing off against a much tougher defence in the Ottawa REDBLACKS, not to mention a battle between the league’s top rushers.

The Argonauts have their plates full this weekend when they head to BC to take on the Lions. The Lions have a nearly perfect record at home (5-1), as the Argos try to find their first road win of the season. Not a good sign as you enter the final full month of the season.

Get your carving knives out and stuff your face with some turkey, and while you’re at it be sure to take in some CFL football on Thanksgiving Monday. The Stampeders and Als square off in the first matchup, followed by the Roughriders and struggling Eskimos.

Total CFL Pick ‘Em is back in 2018 and if you can pick the winners with regularity, you’ll have a chance to win $5,000. *View rules regarding streaks and prizing.

With the first game tabbed to kick off on Friday, here are my picks for Week 12 of the CFL season.


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WINNIPEG @ OTTAWA

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

The task of going up against the REDBLACKS defence will be much different for the Blue Bombers this week than the one they faced off against last week in Edmonton. (Johany Jutras, CFL.ca)

The Blue Bombers are coming off a dominant performance in Edmonton that surprised many. Not so much that they won, but won 30-3. A road trip to Ottawa will be a different challenge for the Bombers as the REDBLACKS defence is far superior to that of the Eskimos.

The Bombers offence remains one of the top in scoring, while their defence has improved from where they were last season and even earlier in the year.

Both teams have a lot to play for as the Bombers are hoping to try to chase down Saskatchewan for the possibility of a home playoff game, while Ottawa is trying to stay in front of Hamilton for the East Division lead. I don’t know if this is the game of the week or if it’s Monday’s game in Saskatchewan, but either way, there is a lot of talent on the field and a lot on the line.

PICK: OTTAWA (30% confidence)


TORONTO @ B.C.

Saturday | 7:oo p.m. ET

The good news for the Lions is that their 5-1 at home. The bad news for the Argos? They’ve yet to win a game on the road. (Johany Jutras, CFL.ca)

The B.C. Lions are coming back home from a butt kicking in Hamilton wondering what happened. Although we know what happened.

They played on the road. B.C. is 1-6 on the road and has been outscored by almost an average of 10 points per game.

Good news for B.C. Bad news for Toronto. The Lions are 5-1 at home. Even worse news for Toronto is they are 0-6 on the road.

It’s hard not make your pick based off those numbers alone.

PICK: B.C. (75% confidence)


CALGARY @ MONTREAL

Monday | 1:00 p.m. ET

The Calgary Stampeders will trot into Montreal on Thanksgiving Monday to further their ranks in the West Division after already clinching a playoff spot last week. (Johany Jutras, CFL.ca)

The Stampeders head to Montreal to face a much more confident Johnny Manziel and the Alouettes. While the Alouettes lost to the Roughriders, they have to gain some confidence by staying in the game against the second-best team in the league.

Now they have the best in town.

Calgary limps in with so many injuries to their offence that many continue to wonder how they get it done. It was Marken Michel who picked up the slack last week in the receiving corps and maybe it’ll be Markeith Ambles this week. Either way, Zach Collaros just lit up the Alouettes secondary for nearly 400-yards with a group of first-year starters and a veteran who hadn’t played in over a year.

As much as the Alouettes can feel good about their play, they’re still not as well organized and put together like this Stampeder team.

PICK: CALGARY (90% confidence)


EDMONTON @ SASKATCHEWAN

Monday | 4:00 p.m. ET

Concern has started to set in for the Eskimos following their 30-3 meltdown to Winnipeg last week. Meanwhile, Zach Collaros and the Roughriders have found a way to get things rolling. (Jason Halstead, CFL.ca)

Concern is growing in Edmonton after a second straight game where the offence struggled to put up points. 18 total in their last two games. What is wrong with Mike Reilly? Is Duke Williams too banged up to play consistently and if he can’t get going, who is going to step up with Derel Walker also out?

While the offence is definitely a concern, what is truly being exposed now is how poor their defence is in Edmonton. Reilly could outscore the opponent but now that he can’t, it’s a glaring problem that the only defences worse statistically than Edmonton are Toronto and Montreal.

Now they head to Saskatchewan after Zach Collaros just put up 394-yards passing against Montreal and Tre Mason is running the ball well. Yes, there has been a bit of a hiccup from the Riders defence, which could lead to problems against Mike Reilly.

Reilly though hasn’t had very good games against his former Head Coach Chris Jones and this defence. Only one 300 yard, multi-touchdown game and that was early in 2016 when Jones was just getting started.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN (50% confidence)


TSN Fantasy Picks

QUARTERBACK – ZACH COLLAROS – If Collaros is finding his groove, jump all over the value of him being under $6,000. Also, the Eskimos defence allows a lot of passing yards and after a 394-yard passing game and finding chemistry with a young receiving group, I’m going to roll with the Riders pivot.

RUNNING BACKS/FLEX – WILLIAM POWELL / DEXTER MCCLUSTER / TRE MASONWilliam Powell‘s last two games have gone very well and he seems to be finding his best at the perfect time. While trying to pick up yards against Winnipeg won’t be easy, I think Powell in both the running and receiving game has to be where the REDBLACKS offence can be at their best. Dexter McCluster will have more opportunity with James Wilder Jr. out with an injury. There was no doubt McCluster had a big role in the passing game in his debut and with PPR that could pay off if this week with a decent value. Tre Mason with four games left is driving toward a 1,000-yard season in his first year in the CFL. He also finally found the end zone for the first time. I think the good times continue for Mason.

RECEIVERS – BRYAN BURNHAM / KYRAN MOORE – The B.C. Lions are a different team at home and Burnham is their biggest playmaker. Toronto’s defence is not very good. I think this could pay off big. Kyran Moore had a breakout game as he is a matchup nightmare. He is quick and even against Montreal showed he’s willing to carry some players on his back to get extra yardage. He’s also an added threat on special teams. One thing to look out for is he’s in Caleb Holley‘s spot and he is closing in on a return, though I doubt Moore would lose his spot after a 120+ yard game.

DEFENCE – B.C. LIONS – The Lions defence has been playing very well up until that let down in Hamilton. I think they get back to their playmaking ways against Toronto at home. And it’s a decent value with a good matchup.