Weekly Predictor: Sniffing out an upset

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

Toronto stands as the lone team that’s already been eliminated from playoff contention that will be playing this week with Montreal on their final bye week. Following their dismal start against the Lions, James Franklin gets the nod as the starting quarterback moving forward and will face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Friday. A Hamilton win and the Ticats complete the sweep of the Argos this season.

Matt Nichols will be hoping to carry in the stellar performance he’s been having as of late when the Bombers take on the Roughriders this weekend. Nichols has only thrown one interception in the past three games.

Perhaps a surprise, but there’s something about those Lions that has Jamie Nye sniffing an upset when Travis Lulay and Tyrell Sutton hop into the lineup for their Saturday night tilt against the Stampeders.

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With the first game tabbed to kick off on Friday, here are my picks for Week 18 of the CFL season.

HAMILTON @ TORONTO

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

With the disappointing performance by McLeod Bethel-Thompson last week against the Lions, James Franklin gets the nod as the Argos starting quarterback. (The Canadian Press)

James Franklin is back behind centre for the Argonauts this week after McLeod Bethel-Thompson has cooled off and the Argos might as well go with the younger player with more upside in the long term, especially after the promise he showed in Edmonton.

Hamilton is a game back of Ottawa and has a lot more to play for than the Argonauts who have been officially eliminated from the playoffs. Hamilton is coming off the bye week and a big win over the B.C. Lions.

The Tiger-Cats have also scored 78 points in their two games against the Argonauts this season and I don’t see much improvement on the defensive side of the ball in Toronto. Hamilton meanwhile has too much firepower to keep contained for four quarters.

PICK: HAMILTON (85% confidence)

SASKATCHEWAN @ WINNIPEG

Saturday | 2:00 p.m. ET

Following his low point against the Riders a few weeks ago, Matt Nichols is hoping to continue the performance he’s put forth since, only throwing one interception in the past three games. (The Canadian Press)

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers last played Saskatchewan in the Banjo Bowl and it was their fourth straight loss in the low point of the season. Since then the Bombers have won three straight games, including an impressive showing in Edmonton and a big win in Ottawa.

Now the Bombers are back at home and looking to reel in the Roughriders in the race for second in the West Division.

The Riders, of course, are backed by a defence that scored two defensive touchdowns in that Banjo Bowl victory.

It was a low point for Matt Nichols who was replaced after halftime, following three interceptions in the first half. Nichols has responded with just one interception in his last three games.

The Riders come in with a chance this weekend to clinch a home playoff game. It’s a fast and furious defence and an offence that doesn’t make many big errors. The Bombers will have to match that mistake-free football or it will be a repeat of the games in September.

This is the game of the week, IMO! Two teams on three-game winning streaks. Playoff position on the line.

PICK: WINNIPEG (25% confidence)

OTTAWA @ EDMONTON

Saturday | 5:00 p.m. ET

Mike Reilly has been struggling lately and is set to go up against a tough opponent in the Ottawa REDBLACKS this week. Can he turn it around? (Arthur Ward, CFL.ca)

What is wrong with the Eskimo offence? It is quite puzzling to see Mike Reilly struggle the way he has. The last three games have been the worst for yardage and points for this offence all season.

Ottawa, meanwhile, has had no problem scoring including a win a few weeks ago against the Eskimos. I think Ottawa’s defence is good enough to continue to keep Reilly at bay.

Trevor Harris has enough weapons around him to keep the Eskimos guessing on where he’s going with the ball and the added bonus of having the best running back in the CFL in William Powell.

Edmonton is in desperation mode, while the REDBLACKS have a lot less pressure on them despite a race for top spot in the East. I like the team who is solid and not necessarily squeezing the football a little tighter than usual.

PICK: OTTAWA (50% confidence)

B.C. @ CALGARY

Saturday | 8:00 p.m. ET

Tyrell Sutton may just be making his debut with the Lions this week against the Stamps since being traded from Montreal. Can he be the key to stirring up an upset against the league leaders? (BCLions.com)

Travis Lulay is back and Terrell Sutton may make his B.C. Lions debut after the trade from Montreal.

Calgary is coming off a scare in Montreal as they almost dropped a game with the Riders still within striking distance for the top spot in the West Division.

The Lions are clearly a better team this season with Lulay at quarterback as Jonathon Jennings has regressed from where he was a few years ago. Lulay may also be able to spark an offence with the recent addition in receiver DeVier Posey to go alongside Bryan Burnham.

The Stampeders got Eric Rogers back in a receiving corps that is in desperate need of help, but Bo Levi Mitchell struggled to find open receivers and had one of his worst performances in Montreal. It’ll be interesting to see how he bounces back.

Earlier this season Mitchell threw for 370 yards against B.C., but this defence has come a long way since then.

How about an upset?

PICK: B.C. (10% confidence)

TSN Fantasy Picks

QUARTERBACK – Jeremiah Masoli – I foresee a 300-yard game from Masoli this week. What a prediction, right? Masoli and the Tiger-Cats are worth the investment if you can make it work with Brandon Banks and Masoli. I didn’t do that, but I think you can find value among lower valued receivers than you can running backs. Masoli could be set up for a big day.

RUNNING BACKS – William Powell / John White – Powell is up against one of the worst defences, in terms of yards allowed on the ground. I think Powell could repeat his 145-yard performance he had against Edmonton just a few weeks ago. A trip to the end zone would help this time though. John White continues to be just great value as he’s coming off a 100-yard game against B.C. Now he plays a weaker Argonaut defence. The game may allow for more run opportunities later in the game if the Tiger-Cats pull ahead.

RECEIVERS – DeVier Posey / Weston Dressler / Kenny Shaw – DeVier Posey has been quiet in his return to the CFL but if Travis Lulay does indeed start, it could set up to see Posey have a breakout game as Lulay has been a better quarterback than Jennings this season. Weston Dressler finally gets to play his former team after missing the first two games of the season. Dressler’s top games as a Bomber have come against Saskatchewan and he’s coming off a two-touchdown game as Matt Nichols uses Dressler as a bit of a security blanket. Kenny Shaw has come back from injury to have two consecutive five catch, 70-yard games. Last week he had a touchdown pass bounce off his facemask but he has already built a rapport with Zach Collaros. I think it’s a decent value as Shaw has taken the spot held by Naaman Roosevelt in that offence.

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