The Canadian Press
TORONTO — Following a Week 18 that thickened the plot across the CFL for those teams still in contention for the Grey Cup, CFL Simulation has thrown us a brand new front-runner for who’s most likely to be hoist the Grey Cup in late November.
With their win that sealed the sweep of the Argonauts in 2018, and thanks to their pesky feline foes from the West Coast handing Calgary their first home loss of the season, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats surge ahead to be favourites to win their first championship since 1999.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers appear to have also gained some ground following their 31-0 shutout of the Roughriders on the weekend. As a result, they jump ahead of the Stampeders to win the Grey Cup in the event that the Bombers make it to Edmonton, despite Calgary having higher odds of actually making it to the championship.
We break it down in the latest CFL Simulation.
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Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2018 Record) | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders (15-3) | Clinched |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-7) | Clinched |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8) | Clinched |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (9-9) | Clinched |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7) | 97.38% |
| BC Lions (8-10) | 82.46% |
| Edmonton Eskimos (9-9) | 20.16% |
| Toronto Argonauts (4-14) | Eliminated |
| Montreal Alouettes (4-14) | Eliminated |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | Clinched |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | Clinched |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | Clinched |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 53.56% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 32.90% |
| BC Lions | 12.87% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.67% |
| Toronto Argonauts | Eliminated |
| Montreal Alouettes | Eliminated |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 94.32% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 5.68% |
| Toronto Argonauts | Eliminated |
| Montreal Alouettes | Eliminated |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 93.67% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 6.33% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | Eliminated |
| BC Lions | Eliminated |
| Edmonton Eskimos | Eliminated |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 78.29% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 56.16 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 39.88% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 12.35% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 6.17% |
| BC Lions | 6.03% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 1.12% |
| Toronto Argonauts | Eliminated |
| Montreal Alouettes | Eliminated |
ODDS TO WIN 106TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 35.69% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 29.72% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 28.29% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 2.09% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 2.08% |
| BC Lions | 1.91% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.22% |
| Toronto Argonauts | Eliminated |
| Montreal Alouettes | Eliminated |
MOST LIKELY 106TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Hamilton | 43.43% |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 28.58% |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 6.53% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 4.78% |
| Saskatchewan-Hamilton | 4.09% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
