Walter Tychnowicz/CFL.ca
A plethora of cheap running back options opens routes to top-priced talent, so determining which of the elite options will erupt in Week 19 will likely determine the big winners down the stretch run of the CFL Fantasy season. There are difficult choices to be made between high-priced consistent performers and breakout candidates at a discount so it’s time to do the math and make some tough decisions.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected:
Mike Reilly, EDM – $12,658
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11,931
Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $9,102
Punt Single:
Travis Lulay, BC – $6,070
Reilly and the Eskimos offence showed some signs of life for the first time in a month in their Week 18 win over the REDBLACKS. It was his first game over 300 passing yards since Week 13, but the passing touchdowns are still coming at a much slower rate with only two over his past four games. This week’s matchup with the Lions isn’t great in terms of yardage potential. Reilly averages the second most yards per attempt in the CFL (8.91) but BC allows yards at one of the lowest rates around (7.77) and has yielded the third fewest big plays (22). Reilly gets his biggest bump over the competition through his rushing touchdown potential as he shares the league lead in rushing TDs (with Toronto’s James Franklin) and the Lions have allowed the highest number of total rushing TDs to this point and at the highest rate per attempt.
Masoli projects very similarly to Reilly in the passing categories and is, if anything, a step ahead. Hamilton averages the most passing yards per attempt by a wide margin (9.48), thanks in part to Brandon Banks and three matchups with Toronto this year, and the passing scores have started to come in bunches in the second half of the season since losing Alex Green to injury. Ottawa allows the third highest rate of passing TDs per attempt, so the scores should keep coming. Their Week 7 matchup was a kicker’s battle snoozefest, but Masoli and the offence have been a different team in the second half of the season. The yards and scores should come aplenty.
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Mitchell hasn’t looked right over the past two weeks – completing passes at just a 51 per cent rate for only 5.75 yards per attempt. That’s a full three yards per attempt lower than his season long average of 8.82. It’s a thoughtless excuse to merely blame injuries at receiver as the cause, as the turnover there has been a season-long enterprise. He has been missing open targets regularly and the Roughriders defence is the kind of opportunistic unit that could make him pay for those mistakes. The Stamps still lead the league in big plays (38) and the Riders have allowed the third most of those (28), but given his recent form it seems a difficult week to gamble on Mitchell.
Lulay did not put up earth-shattering numbers in his return to the starting lineup, but few players do versus Calgary. The Lions passing attack is significantly more efficient with him under centre, averaging 8.02 yards per attempt versus 6.8 with Jonathon Jennings. BC came out with their most run-heavy attack of the season in Tyrell Sutton’s first start, running 47 per cent of the time as opposed to their season long average of only 36 per cent, so there may be some growing pains in projecting Lulay’s attempts. Edmonton is a great matchup for efficiency though as they allow the second most yards per pass attempt (8.83). At only half the price of some of the top projected QBs, Lulay is a solid value for players wanting to spend up elsewhere.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected:
Branden Burks, TOR – $4,200
William Powell, OTT – $9,021
Tyrell Sutton, BC – $6,580
Punt Single:
John White IV, HAM – $4,275
Burks came out blazing in his first start as the full time back in Toronto but was largely ignored in the second half once the Argos fell behind Hamilton on the scoreboard. Still, 19.4 Fantasy points put him among the leaders at the position for Week 18. This week’s matchup versus Montreal has the Argos set up as 4.5-point favourites and also as the beneficiaries of a significant boost in pace as Montreal allows the most plays per game to opposing offences (62.3). The positive game script and his work as a consistent target in the passing game makes Burks a near lock for lineups this week.
Powell leads the league in rushing yards, but Powell is not a great Fantasy option. Each phrase can be true at the same time. He quite consistently racks up yards but the REDBLACKS bog down in the red zone more than any other team outside of the Riders, with 31 field goal attempts inside the 40-yard line. The REDBLACKS have a league low nine rushing touchdowns to go along with the lowest rate of rushing touchdowns per attempt. The yards should be there again for Powell versus a Hamilton defence that allows a league high 5.73 yards per carry, but as their Week 7 matchup showed, Ottawa loves to settle for field goals. Touchdowns are the king makers in Fantasy football as even one score is worth 60 rushing yards. It’s tough to justify Powell’s price tag.
William Powell is the CFL’s rushing leader, but does it make him an effective Fantasy back? (The Canadian Press)
Sutton looked fresh in his first significant action since falling to injury in Week 10, tallying over 100 yards and a pair of scores versus the league’s best rush defence. The matchup with Edmonton is that much more enticing as they allow the third most yards per carry (5.36). If BC is indeed going to skew much more run heavy with Sutton in the backfield – as they did in Week 18 – he could have another solid outing in Vancouver on Friday night as BC is two-point favourites over the Eskimos. The price tag is a little high given the uncertainty and other cheap options at the position, but he’s certainly worth consideration for lineups this week.
White was one of the bigger disappointments in Week 18, amassing a mere 52 yards on 13 carries in a lopsided win over Toronto. It was a great matchup that did not pan out after a very slow start for him. Ottawa is an average rush defence in terms of rates for yardage and scores but White had his worst statistical game of the season versus the REDBLACKS in Week 7 with only 2.5 fantasy points. It’s unlikely he’s that ineffective again, but there is some risk here despite the cheap price tag.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected:
Brandon Banks, HAM – $12,219
Bryant Mitchell, EDM – $8,211
Luke Tasker, HAM – $9,245
Eric Rogers, CGY – $7,644
Duke Williams, EDM – $8,411
Diontae Spencer, OTT – $8,839
Punt Single:
Chris Matthews, CGY – $2,500
Markeith Ambles, CGY – $2,500
Geno Lewis, MTL – $3,264
Banks is the 2018 CFL fantasy football MVP. Really, he should probably be the 2018 CFL MOP as well but everyone always picks quarterbacks. No player has been more consistent or has a higher floor/ceiling combination. He has only four games below 20 Fantasy points this season and in one of those he still had seven catches for 113 yards. He leads the league in targets per game (9.1), air yards per game (111), and receiving touchdowns per game. He’s good at football. The matchup with Ottawa is nothing to write home about but his price tag is noteworthy. It’s near impossible to stack him and Masoli without punting every other position so there are tough decisions to be made. With his consistency though, it may be wise to start here and build around him rather than starting with QB. His teammate, Tasker, took all the glory with three TDs in Week 18 and looks to have a good chance to score again as Ottawa allows the third highest rate of receiving TDs per target. He lacks Banks’ consistency, but he also lacks Banks’ price tag.
Rogers’ price tag continues to sag following his return from injury, but his target rates show he’s still due to break out as he’s had 10 targets per game in the past two contests. As mentioned earlier, Mitchell has just been tossing a lot of errant balls of late, making it difficult for Rogers to convert his opportunities into points. At some point Mitchell will get it figured out and Rogers will have a huge game. The Riders defence is great at scoring touchdowns, but they also allow a higher than average rate of big plays and passing TDs per attempt. Ambles and Matthews are excellent options in this matchup as well given their minimum salary price tags. It would be unwise to have more than two Stampeders receivers though given their recent struggles. It’s also a little uncertain who the starting receivers will be this week in Calgary as Marken Michel could return to action and Bakari Grant was signed on Monday.
For all the uncertainty in the Stamps’ receiving corps, Eric Rogers should see a steady stream of targets (Larry MacDougal/CFL.ca)
The first half of the season brought Duke Williams to the forefront of the league and justifiably his price tag rose from the $3K range to the $8K range it is now. Over the past five games though, Edmonton has morphed into the Bryant Mitchell Show as he has averaged over 10.4 targets per game since securing a starting role. Mitchell’s tag has now also risen quite appropriately to the $8K range. He’s unlikely to get the benefit of 17 targets again this week, but the matchup with the Lions projects Edmonton for a slight bump in pace along with above average rates for receiving yards and touchdowns per target.
Ottawa’s struggles to convert yardage into touchdowns have already been touched on, but these same struggles affect the receivers as well. Hamilton allows the second fewest yards per target this season (7.33) and an average rate of TDs per target as well. Ottawa runs the fastest paced offence in the CFL (62.1) but Hamilton allows the fewest plays per game (53.1) to opposing offences so the usual volume expected for Spencer, Sinopoli, and Ellingson takes a significant hit. It’s not a great week to target overpriced Ottawa receivers.
The bargain receivers out of Calgary have been mentioned, but the one other cheaper priced option that hasn’t been discussed is Lewis. Over his past three games, Lewis has averaged 81 air yards per game – fourth most for any receiver in that span. His overall targets are low due to a stagnant Montreal offence that runs the fewest plays per game (49.2) but Toronto is an efficiency dream come true, allowing the highest rates of receiving yards per target (9.68) and touchdowns per target this year. Lewis is a boom or bust option but if he converts those air yards into reality in a dream matchup he could be one of the top receiving options on the slate.
DEFENCE
Calgary Stampeders – $5,202
Toronto Argonauts – $3,200
The Roughriders offence had their worst showing of what has been a pretty abysmal 2018 campaign for them, getting shut out by Winnipeg in Week 18. Zach Collaros threw two interceptions – and a few more passes that could have been – on their way to 195 yards of total offence. The Stampeders are second in the league in forced turnovers (44) and forced two and outs (89) and square off against a Riders offence that leads the league in offensive two and outs (95). This should be another rough outing for Saskatchewan and has the potential to be a big game for the Stamps defence that can lock up first place in the West with a win.
The Argos defence is bad this season but the Alouettes offence has been arguably worse. The Als have allowed a league high 59 sacks and thrown 19 interceptions – also a league high – which makes the Argos and interesting option despite their lack of defensive production in those categories. Mistakes will be made in this battle for the bottom of the East Division and it’s likely one of these defences scores a TD at minimum price.
STACKS
Lulay > DeVier Posey
Despite his overall lack of Fantasy production since joining BC, Posey has still averaged nearly seven targets and 75 air yards per game, making him a good candidate to see positive results in the future. If going the cheap route at QB with Lulay, Posey is the best target to stack him with in a good matchup with Edmonton.
Franklin > Burks, S.J. Green
Franklin wasn’t amazing versus Hamilton, but they are one of the strongest pass defences in the league. Montreal is not. Franklin has a great combination of passing and running ability that should lead to a solid outing versus the Als. Burks is the safe route as a stacking option given his work as a receiver, while Green is one of the most volatile options in Fantasy as he has four games of 23 fantasy points or better while also having eight games of nine points or worse.
WEEK 19 PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries | Pass Rate | Rush Rate |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $12,658.00 | EDM | BC | 28.60 | 2.26 | 35.95 | 6.20 | 0.54 | 1.20 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $11,931.00 | HAM | OTT | 24.78 | 2.08 | 33.36 | 4.30 | 0.55 | 0.93 |
| Bo Levi MITCHELL | QB | $9,102.00 | CGY | SSK | 22.37 | 2.46 | 33.62 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.86 |
| James FRANKLIN | QB | $8,659.00 | TOR | MTL | 21.60 | 2.49 | 38.96 | 6.80 | 0.39 | 1.05 |
| Travis LULAY | QB | $6,070.00 | BC | EDM | 19.68 | 3.24 | 31.01 | 2.80 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| Trevor HARRIS | QB | $8,738.00 | OTT | HAM | 17.77 | 2.03 | 36.21 | 1.70 | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| Johnny MANZIEL | QB | $6,021.00 | MTL | TOR | 13.59 | 2.26 | 29.39 | 4.30 | 0.31 | 1.05 |
| Zach COLLAROS | QB | $5,262.00 | SSK | CGY | 9.34 | 1.77 | 30.09 | 1.70 | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| Cody FAJARDO | QB | $5,000.00 | BC | EDM | 1.40 | 0.28 | 1.80 | 0.34 | 0.79 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns | Rush Rate | Rec Rate | PR Rate | KR Rate |
| Brandon BURKS | RB | $4,200.00 | TOR | MTL | 15.77 | 3.75 | 13.30 | 5.10 | 0.68 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| William POWELL | RB | $9,021.00 | OTT | HAM | 15.59 | 1.73 | 15.00 | 3.40 | 0.71 | 1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Tyrell SUTTON | RB | $6,580.00 | BC | EDM | 15.49 | 2.35 | 14.30 | 3.40 | 0.81 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| John White IV | RB | $4,275.00 | HAM | OTT | 13.31 | 3.11 | 14.90 | 1.90 | 0.70 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $7,129.00 | EDM | BC | 12.64 | 1.77 | 11.90 | 1.80 | 0.72 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Don JACKSON | RB | $6,675.00 | CGY | SSK | 11.57 | 1.73 | 13.20 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William STANBACK | RB | $4,873.00 | MTL | TOR | 11.35 | 2.33 | 11.50 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1.64 | 0.00 | 1.33 | |
| Stefan LOGAN | RB | $3,115.00 | MTL | TOR | 9.51 | 3.05 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 3.00 | 5.00 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 1.09 |
| Tre MASON | RB | $4,657.00 | SSK | CGY | 7.55 | 1.62 | 11.40 | 1.90 | 0.56 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Martese JACKSON | RB | $4,174.00 | TOR | MTL | 7.28 | 1.74 | 1.80 | 2.80 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.94 |
| Marcus THIGPEN | RB | $6,547.00 | SSK | CGY | 7.15 | 1.09 | 4.20 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Declan CROSS | RB | $2,500.00 | TOR | MTL | 5.04 | 2.01 | 1.40 | 2.90 | 0.00 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Terry WILLIAMS | RB | $4,707.00 | CGY | SSK | 3.04 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 3.00 | 0.66 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Romar MORRIS | RB | $5,864.00 | CGY | SSK | 2.43 | 0.41 | 3.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.95 | 0.57 | 1.08 |
| Mercer TIMMIS | RB | $3,000.00 | HAM | OTT | 1.02 | 0.34 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 1.09 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns | Rush Rate | Rec Rate | PR Rate | KR Rate |
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $12,219.00 | HAM | OTT | 23.55 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 9.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Bryant MITCHELL | WR | $8,212.00 | EDM | BC | 19.28 | 2.35 | 0.00 | 9.20 | 0.00 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Luke TASKER | WR | $9,245.00 | HAM | OTT | 18.75 | 2.03 | 0.00 | 7.10 | 0.00 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Eric ROGERS | WR | $7,644.00 | CGY | SSK | 18.71 | 2.45 | 0.00 | 7.30 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $8,411.00 | EDM | BC | 18.67 | 2.22 | 0.00 | 8.50 | 0.00 | 2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Diontae SPENCER | WR | $8,839.00 | OTT | HAM | 17.41 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 7.10 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.71 | 0.54 | 1.09 |
| Brad SINOPOLI | WR | $7,413.00 | OTT | HAM | 15.45 | 2.08 | 0.00 | 8.90 | 0.00 | 1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Greg ELLINGSON | WR | $7,140.00 | OTT | HAM | 14.97 | 2.10 | 0.00 | 8.70 | 0.00 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Chris MATTHEWS | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | SSK | 14.72 | 5.89 | 0.00 | 6.70 | 0.00 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| S.J. GREEN | WR | $6,968.00 | TOR | MTL | 12.92 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 9.50 | 0.00 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $7,131.00 | BC | EDM | 12.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 6.60 | 0.00 | 1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| DeVier POSEY | WR | $4,258.00 | BC | EDM | 11.64 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 6.50 | 0.00 | 1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Juwan BRESCACIN | WR | $3,957.00 | CGY | SSK | 11.01 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 5.10 | 0.00 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Armanti EDWARDS | WR | $5,537.00 | TOR | MTL | 10.60 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 6.10 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Markeith AMBLES | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | SSK | 9.09 | 3.64 | 0.00 | 6.30 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $3,949.00 | HAM | OTT | 9.08 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 4.40 | 0.00 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $3,264.00 | MTL | TOR | 9.05 | 2.77 | 0.01 | 5.10 | 2.23 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $4,120.00 | EDM | BC | 9.02 | 2.19 | 0.00 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Kyran MOORE | WR | $4,062.00 | SSK | CGY | 8.41 | 2.07 | 0.50 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 1.71 | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| Ricky Collins Jr. | WR | $4,694.00 | BC | EDM | 8.32 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 6.10 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $4,110.00 | MTL | TOR | 7.63 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Vidal HAZELTON | WR | $4,226.00 | EDM | BC | 7.60 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 5.60 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $3,698.00 | MTL | TOR | 7.56 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 6.10 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Rashad LAWRENCE | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | OTT | 7.45 | 2.98 | 0.00 | 4.70 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.84 | ||
| R.J. HARRIS | WR | $3,409.00 | OTT | HAM | 7.39 | 2.17 | 0.00 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Duron CARTER | WR | $3,571.00 | TOR | MTL | 7.21 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 0.00 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| TJ GRAHAM | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | TOR | 6.73 | 2.69 | 0.00 | 4.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Kenny SHAW | WR | $3,681.00 | SSK | CGY | 6.73 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 7.20 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Llevi NOEL | WR | $3,118.00 | TOR | MTL | 6.62 | 2.12 | 0.00 | 4.70 | 0.00 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 1.13 | ||
| Justin BUREN | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | OTT | 6.27 | 2.51 | 0.00 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Cory WATSON | WR | $3,199.00 | BC | EDM | 6.12 | 1.91 | 0.00 | 3.30 | -0.80 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $4,056.00 | SSK | CGY | 5.97 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Devon BAILEY | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | CGY | 5.10 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian FEOLI GUDINO | WR | $2,635.00 | OTT | HAM | 4.64 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Caleb HOLLEY | WR | $2,563.00 | SSK | CGY | 4.53 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 3.60 | 0.00 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 3.64 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
