Numbers Don’t Lie: 3 stats that will define the Western Semi
REGINA — It took until the very last game on the 2018 CFL schedule, but the Western Semi-Final matchup has finally been determined.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders and Winnipeg Blue Bombers will meet for the fourth time this year, with one of the league’s most intense and fastest-growing rivalries culminating in an elimination game at Mosaic Stadium.
The two western foes have plenty of similarities, each leaning on a hot-and-cold offence while making big plays on defence and special teams on the way to winning records.
While the Bombers lean on the league’s top all-around running back in Andrew Harris, the Riders feature a rush end duo made up of Willie Jefferson and Charleston Hughes, creating matchup nightmares for opposing offensive coordinators.
What will be the difference in Sunday’s prairie battle? CFL.ca breaks it down in the latest ‘numbers don’t lie’.
1. Win the turnover battle, win the game
The Headline: Can the Riders keep it clean?
The Number: 10-0 (Both the Riders’ and Bombers’ record when winning the turnover battle outright)
The Bombers celebrate after intercepting Zach Collaros during a landslide 31-0 win (The Canadian Press)
The Riders may have a daunting defence, but if anyone can beat them at their own game it’s the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Bombers have a highly-opportunistic defence themselves, leading the CFL in takeaways and turnover differential. Capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes has been a key aspect in their success this season, leading to a league-best 151 points off turnovers.
For Zach Collaros and the Riders’ offence, protecting the football will be the key to victory. With an elite defence that can keep the score low and make sudden momentum-changing plays, the offence’s job will be to manage the game and avoid the big mistake.
The Riders have only won two games when losing the turnover battle, posting a sterling 10-0 record when winning the battle outright. Other times, though, giveaways have been an issue, with Collaros throwing more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (9) in his first season in Rider green.
With the Bombers also boasting a perfect 10-0 record when winning the turnover battle, and, unlike the Riders, failing to win a game when losing it, this is one cliche that rings true in every possible sense.
2. Bombers must contain Hughes, Jefferson
The Headline: Welcome to Sack-atchewan
The Number: 25 (Combined sacks for the Willie Jefferson and Charleston Hughes, one more than the Argos’ team total)
With two touchdowns and double-digit sacks, Willie Jefferson has had a career year in 2018 (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)
The impact of defensive ends Willie Jefferson and Charleston Hughes goes well beyond the stat sheet. Having the league’s most dominant pass-rushing duo gives Chris Jones a plethora of options on defence, including the ability to send a three-man rush more than any other team in the CFL, allowing a plethora of different looks and creating matchup nightmares for opposing coordinators.
Of course, the best empirical evidence is statistical. Hughes leads the CFL with 15 sacks in 18 games and while he’s cooled off of late (just two sacks in the last seven games), he’s proven throughout his 11-year career that he’s capable of going off on a moment’s notice.
Jefferson, meanwhile, has put himself in the conversation for Most Outstanding Player, a rare feat for a defensive end, but one that he’s earned after recording 10 sacks, two interceptions (including his infamous pick-six against the Bombers in the Banjo Bowl, on which he taunted the Winnipeg crowd), two forced fumbles and two touchdowns.
Bombers tackles Stanley Bryant and Jermarcus Hardrick are considered two of the CFL’s best, anchoring an O-line that’s allowed just 36 sacks in 2018, but will face a difficult challenge in the Western Semi as they look to corral two of the league’s pass-rushing terrors.
3. Matty Ice has the hot hand
The Headline: More than just a game manager?
The Number: 7:1 (Matt Nichols‘ touchdown to interception ratio over his last five starts, all wins)
Matt Nichols is coming off his best game of the season, hitting 300-plus passing yards for the first time (The Canadian Press)
Since acquiring Matt Nichols, the Bombers have become a perennial playoff team and Grey Cup contender in the CFL, reaching the post-season for a third year in a row. However, with Nichols behind centre, they’re 0-2 in the playoffs, falling in back-to-back semi-finals to BC and Edmonton.
There’s another step to be taken here, and it starts with No. 15. Nichols has proven he can manage a game, but he’ll need to make plays in order to beat the Riders at Mosaic. The Bombers’ pivot went almost the entire season without a 300-yard game, finally hitting the mark with a 358-yard, two-touchdown performance to defeat the West Division Champion Calgary Stampeders.
Dating back to a Week 15 win over Montreal, Nichols has played some of the most consistent football of his career, completing 72 per cent of his passes for 1,213 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. His 9.2 yards per attempt over that span are well above his career 7.7-yard mark, while his 8.0 average on the season also puts him at a career-best since becoming a starter.
As good as Nichols has been, however, the Riders have been his Kryptonite this season. In three head-to-head meetings, the Bombers’ quarterback has managed just 486 passing yards, an average of 162 yards per contest. In hostile territory in what could be a career-defining game, can Nichols finally figure out the Riders at Mosaic?
