Numbers Don’t Lie: 3 stats that will define the Eastern Final
OTTAWA — There’s one simple stat that very easily tees up Sunday’s Eastern Final, where the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Ottawa REDBLACKS will duel for a chance to play in the 106th Grey Cup presented by Shaw.
Three-and-0. That was the season series between these clubs in favour of the REDBLACKS, who pulled off the season sweep to capture a division title last month, along with the opportunity to host the Eastern Final.
Of course, while there’s no denying that history can provide some insight on what to expect in any future matchup, with so many variables and other intangibles that can affect the outcome of a football game, it’s important to think about which data to consider and how it can be applied in a meaningful and objective way.
There are trends and statistics you can break down in favour of either team, but in the end only team can win, with the outcome being decided on the field. CFL.ca breaks it down in the latest ‘numbers don’t lie’.
1. Can Jeremiah Masoli be stopped?
The Headline: Hot Masoli!
The Number: 13.6 (Jeremiah Masoli‘s yards per attempt in the Eastern Semi-Final)
Jeremiah Masoli had the best game of his career in a win over the BC Lions on Sunday (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
It’s been an easy transition this year for Jeremiah Masoli, who’s made the jump from unknown backup to one of the best starting quarterbacks in the Canadian Football League. With his ability to not only make plays with his legs but also dissect a defence with his right arm, Masoli has become one of the most exciting and dangerous pivots playing in the three-down game.
That carried into the post-season over the weekend, when Masoli shredded the visiting BC Lions at Tim Hortons Field, throwing for 259 yards and three touchdowns on 14-of-19 passes. Yes, the 19 attempts were all Masoli needed for his team to put up 48 points to win one of the most lopsided games of 2018, while his 13.6 yards per attempt were the second highest total by a qualified quarterback this season.
Yards per attempt have been Masoli’s calling card all year, indicative of his elite level of production in his first full season as a starter. At 9.1 yards per attempt, Masoli led all quarterbacks at the end of the season, also finishing second with 5,209 passing yards and third with 28 touchdown passes.
The REDBLACKS’ defence provides a sturdy challenge for Masoli considering it’s allowed 7.9 yards per attempt this season — tied for the third lowest in the league — as Rick Campbell’s team looks to avoid another 300-yard outing from Masoli, a milestone he’s hit 12 out of 17 tries this season.
2. Trevor Harris is in perfect rhythm
The Headline: High-efficiency unit
The Number: 76.6% (Trevor Harris‘ completion percentage his last six starts)
Trevor Harris has thrown 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions over six starts (Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca)
Always known as a hot and cold passer, Trevor Harris might be playing the best football of his career heading into the post-season. That’s good news heading into a matchup with one of the CFL’s stingiest pass defences, with the Ticats allowing a league-low 332 first downs and just 247.7 yards per game through the air (third in the CFL).
The Tabbies’ defence will no doubt provide a stiff test, but Harris has had Hamilton’s number this season, winning all three starts while completing 70 of 97 passing attempts (72%) with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Even more impressive has been Harris’ play as of late. The REDBLACKS’ veteran has gone 4-2 over his last six contests, completing a spectacular 76.6 per cent of his passes for 1,895 yards (315.8 per game) and an 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio. Over that span he’s averaged 9.7 yards per attempt.
Jeremiah Masoli might have gotten the MOP nod in the East, but with a full assortment of weapons including Diontae Spencer, Brad Sinopoli and Greg Ellingson, Harris has played some of the best football of his career the last two months.
3. Can the Ticats take the ball away?
The Headline: Pressure bursts pipes
The Number: 31 (Sacks by the Tiger-Cats, the second-fewest in the CFL)
Simoni Lawrence seemed to be everywhere during Sunday’s Semi-Final win over BC (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
Speaking of Harris, the REDBLACKS’ quarterback has thrown 97 passes against the Ticats this season and not one of them has been intercepted. In contrast, Jeremiah Masoli has been picked off four times in three games against Ottawa, while the Ticats have lost the total head-to-head turnover battle 8-5.
It’s been noted often that the Ticats need to turn the ball over less, especially Masoli who’s thrown a CFL-high 18 interceptions in his first full season as a starter. But equally important for the Black and Gold will be applying pressure on Trevor Harris and taking the football away.
It’s been an area of weakness for the Ticats this season, ranking second-last in the league in all of sacks (31), takeaways (31) and interceptions (14). They also tied for last in fumble recoveries (8) and scored just 81 of their 513 points off turnovers.
Taking the football away was certainly a vital part of the Ticats’ 48-8 blowing victory over BC in the Eastern Semi-Final. They won the turnover battle 6-1 in that game, recording four sacks while adding a pick-six.
Turnovers have played a role in the success of both these teams this season. The Ticats have gone 5-1 when winning the turnover battle, while the REDBLACKS have gone 6-0. While Hamilton’s turnover ratio this season is minus-10, the second-worst in the CFL ahead of only Toronto, Ottawa ranks third-best with a turnover ratio of plus-nine.
