Numbers Don’t Lie: 3 stats that will define the Western Final
CALGARY — The Calgary Stampeders have been the model of consistency in the CFL over the last decade, not only boasting multiple 13-win seasons but also appearing in several Grey Cups, including the previous two.
Their opponent on Sunday, however, is the hottest team in the CFL, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers entering the 2018 Western Final with wins in six of their last seven games, their only loss having come in a meaningless finale when they chose to rest starters.
Over those six wins, the Bombers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 16 points per game. They’ve averaged 368.5 yards per game against their opponents’ 284.5. Finally, they’ve turned the ball over just eight times, in the process forcing 23 turnovers for a differential of plus-15.
There has been no better team in the league of late, but running into a well-rested Stampeders team that has the best record in the CFL and is just one win away from reaching a third straight Grey Cup, will momentum make the difference? CFL.ca breaks down the Western Final in the latest ‘numbers don’t lie’.
1. Can Matt Nichols stay interception-free?
The Headline: No loose change
The Number: 109 (Passing attempts for Matt Nichols since his last interception)
Bombers quarterback Matt Nichols has avoided the big mistake of late (Matt Smith/CFL.ca)
Matt Nichols has won his last six starts dating back to Week 15, completing 72 per cent of his passes for 1,382 yards and eight touchdowns in the process. What’s most impressive, however, is that he’s had such production without turning the football over, throwing just one interception over that span.
Ball security has been a significant part of the Bombers’ recent success, as the team has turned the ball over just eight times in the span of six games. That was certainly a factor in the Western Semi, when the Bombers won a narrow five-point contest with a 2-0 edge in turnovers, the difference being a second-quarter interception by Kevin Fogg.
Through it all, Nichols has been nearly flawless. The Bombers’ pivot is hovering around nine yards per attempt over that span — an elite level of production — yet has managed to throw 109 passes without being intercepted.
After throwing two interceptions against Calgary earlier this season, Nichols’ stat line at the end of the game will be indicative of the final score. The Stamps tied for the most takeaways in the CFL (with Winnipeg at 49) and won the turnover battle 11 times, going 11-0 in those games.
2. Can the Stamps’ defence get off the field?
The Headline: First down sets the tone
The Number: 100 (Two-and-outs forced by the Stampeders in 2018)
Micah Johnson and the Stamps have forced the second-most two-and-outs in 2018 (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
Despite fading over the second half of the season, the Stampeders’ defence remains one of the league’s most statistically sound, ranking first in the league in average points allowed (20.2), rushing yards (86.5), yards per passing attempt (7.2) and sacks (45). When you add all of it up, the Stamps have forced 100 two-and-outs this season, the second-most in the league behind only Saskatchewan at 107.
The ability to get off the field quickly has been a key aspect in Calgary’s success, and will play a significant role in Sunday’s Western Final as the two teams try to win the field possession battle. Sustaining drives and controlling the clock has been part of the Bombers’ success of late, but that can be difficult against a Calgary team that allows just 5.8 yards per play on first down, far and away the lowest total in the CFL.
Head Coach Mike O’Shea will talk about getting ahead of the chains, which means putting the offence in manageable second down situations and avoiding second-and-long. The Bombers need to get into that second-and-three range, where they’ve converted a CFL-best 73 per cent of their attempts this season.
Calgary’s opponents have converted on second downs 44.3 per cent of the time this season, but that success rate drops to 31 per cent when the distance is seven yards or greater — the second-lowest total in the CFL in that situation. The Bombers, meanwhile, have converted 38 per cent of attempts on second-and-long.
3. Capitalize on mistakes
The Headline: The best offence is… a good defence?
The Number: 158 (Bombers’ points off turnovers in 2018, the most in the CFL)
Kevin Fogg made arguably the biggest play of the game in Sunday’s Western Semi-Final (Geoff Robins/CFL.ca)
After finishing the regular season with a league-best 151 points off turnovers, it was no surprise that stat came into play once again in the Western Semi-Final The Bombers added seven more points off a takeaway in that game, with Kevin Fogg‘s interception in the second quarter taking points off the board for the Riders and eventually resulting in a touchdown the other way.
With the game tied at six and the Riders threatening to score, Fogg’s interception was the biggest play in the game, engineering at least a swing of 10 points. The Bombers would go on to score on Drew Wolitarsky‘s 20-yard touchdown, taking a 13-6 lead that would never be relinquished.
Despite possessing a middle-of-the-road offence when it comes to production (368.3 yards per game, fifth in the CFL), the Bombers rank at the top of the league with 30.6 points per game, including a league-best 28.2 points per game from their offence. The biggest part of that discrepancy has been turnovers, with the Bombers racking up 49 takeaways with a plus-13 turnover ratio, not including last week’s outing.
The Stampeders, of course, are in the same weight class, tying the Bombers in both takeaways and turnover ratio at the top of the CFL. Both teams, meanwhile, are 11-0 this year when winning the turnover battle outright.
Call it cliché, but the defence that makes the big play will be the one that comes away with the ‘W’. It may only take one big turnover to make the difference.
