Fantasy Strategy: Under the radar options + lineup construction

Statistically speaking, the Stampeders are the better team in almost every way, and yet their players are the cheaper options at every position. Due to projections and pricing, it is likely that Fantasy players will lean heavily on Calgary players in their lineups with just a $30,000 cap to work with.

While the math is heavily on the side of the Stamps, players will have to differentiate their lineups from the pack somewhere if they are going to get to the top of the leaderboard in this winner-take-all scenario. Finding the right contrarian pick will be the key to winning the big prize.

QUARTERBACK

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $8994

Trevor Harris, OTT – $9656

Calgary and Ottawa ran a near identical percentage of passing plays through the regular season, 60.95 to 60.94 percent, respectively, which ranked them second and third in the league in that category. So much for the need to establish the run. Bo Levi Mitchell did not throw six touchdowns in his division final like Trevor Harris did, but he did have a solid game (214 yards, three scores) against a much stiffer test than Harris faced. The Stampeders were third in the league in passing yards per attempt (8.67) while leading the league in passing TDs per attempt. The big play was also a big part of their repertoire, as they led the league in passing plays of 30-plus yards with 43 despite all their injury-related turnover at the receiver position.

The REDBLACKS were an above-average defence against the pass, ranking third-best in terms of passing yards allowed per attempt. However, they were still a ways behind a Bombers defence that Mitchell passed for three touchdowns against on Sunday. Recency bias may lead many players towards Harris, but Mitchell is pretty clearly the better play.

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In two games against the Stampeders this season, Harris completed 27 passes for 228 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. That’s not his average per game; those were his totals from the two games combined. His was a common story against Calgary, as they allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt (7.24) while allowing only 11 total passing touchdowns this season. Hamilton allowed passing touchdowns at nearly three times Calgary’s rate and it showed in the Eastern Final. Harris’s path to success will be much more difficult this week.

If looking for a contrarian build, both Nick Arbuckle and Dominique Davis may get an opportunity for a short yardage goal line carry, but the opportunity cost makes them poor options.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected:

William Powell, OTT – $8,705

Don Jackson, CGY – $7,274

Terry Williams, CGY – $4,923

Punt Single(s):

J.C. Beaulieu, OTT – $2,500

It’s hard to believe that William Powell nearly won the rushing title despite Ottawa averaging a league low 4.69 yards per carry. Individually, Powell averaged 5.4 yards per carry, so the team average may be more of a bit of interesting trivia rather than a cause for concern. The Stampeders allowed a league-low 4.84 rush yards per carry, however, and that is cause for concern. In his two games against Calgary this season, Powell had one game with 123 yards on 13 carries, but also had only 17 yards on eight carries in the return matchup while being held off the score board in either contest. Ottawa scored a total of 38 offensive touchdowns this season and Powell accounted for eight of them—a 21.1 per cent market share—which is the highest market share of touchdowns of any player in this game. The only category in which Ottawa has a matchup advantage this week is Calgary’s unnaturally high rate of rushing touchdowns allowed per attempt. If Powell is going to be worth his high tag, it’ll be on the back of getting in the end zone.

On the other hand, the Stampeders scored 50 total offensive touchdowns this season and Don Jackson accounted for only two of them—a four per cent market share. That’s a pretty massive difference in opportunity cost over Powell’s 21.1 per cent for just a $1,500 difference in salary. The REDBLACKS rush defence isn’t nearly as daunting as Calgary’s, as they were fifth in the league, allowing 5.29 yards per carry. Their rates of rushing TDs allowed per carry were below average though, making it even less likely that Jackson will find the end zone on Sunday. In two games versus Ottawa earlier this season, Jackson had 15 carries for 84 yards and a score along with 15 carries for 102 yards in the second matchup. Both of those are solid performances, but neither are enough to make him the clear play at the position.

Bo Levi Mitchell hands the ball off to Don Jackson during Sunday’s Western Final (David Chidley/CFL.ca)

The mean production for both starting running backs is quite similar, but Powell’s ceiling is significantly higher than Jackson’s given his higher market share of touchdowns. The prices on both backs though are a little higher than is comfortable given the tight cap, so making this a position to save salary at is a viable play. Neither of the cheaper options are extremely appealing, but players can’t spend up everywhere.

The injury to Romar Morris in the Western Final makes Terry Williams a pretty likely option to take over the Stamps’ return duties and change of pace work in the backfield. Williams has shown game breaking speed and elusiveness in the return game this season, leading to three return TDs this year in only 11 games of action. He should also likely get a couple of carries and targets out of the backfield which makes him more valuable than the average kick return specialist. Paying nearly $5K for a kick returner isn’t ideal, but the salary relief and potential upside bring him into the conversation.

The other option at RB, J.C. Beaulieu, is a total punt play for those looking to invest heavily in the crop of high-ceiling receivers. Beaulieu could easily leave players with a zero at the RB position as he has zero carries this season and just 29 targets (1.7/game) out of the backfield as a fullback. He did however have one touchdown in the regular season and added a second one in the Eastern Final. As mentioned earlier, players will have to find some way to differentiate their lineup from the pack this season in an all or nothing contest and if Beaulieu hits pay dirt on Sunday, he could be that difference maker at only $2,500.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Projected:

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $8,816

Eric Rogers, CGY – $6,716

Markeith Ambles, CGY – $4,428

Chris Matthews, CGY – $3,614

Brad Sinopoli, CGY – $6,789

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $7,518

R.J. Harris, OTT – $4,554

Punt Single(s):

Juwan Brescacin, CGY – $3,314

Lemar Durant, CGY – $3,127

Julian Feoli-Gudino – $3,046

Much like the Stampeders’ rush defence, their pass defence was also the toughest matchup in the league, allowing just 7.24 yards per target and a rate of receiving touchdowns per target that was less than half of the league average. The REDBLACKS’ offence also scored passing touchdowns at the fourth-lowest rate in the league behind only Montreal, Toronto and Saskatchewan. That’s not great company. They scored one quarter as many passing touchdowns in the Eastern Final as they did in the entire regular season. Players could see this as a reason for optimism, but it’s more likely a statistical outlier than a point of emphasis.

Dionte Spencer doesn’t get nearly as many targets as his running mates Ellingson and Sinopoli, but he does more with what he gets, averaging more than two yards more per target than Ellingson and half a yard more than Sinopoli (9.71/7.54/9.11). Spencer also scored touchdowns at a much higher rate than either of the other two, with seven total scores on the year on offence. His added value as Ottawa’s primary punt and kick returner is icing on the cake, but that value may be mitigated somewhat this week as Calgary allowed the lowest punt return average of any team this season (8.1).

In two games versus Calgary this season, Ellingson – like much of the Ottawa offence this year – was inconsistent, going for 97 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets in one game while having just three catches and 26 yards on three targets in the return matchup. Sinopoli never really showed much in either game, having just eight catches on 12 targets for a total of 77 yards.

Maybe the most interesting Fantasy option from the REDBLACKS this week is their most underappreciated weapon, R.J. Harris. Harris saw significant action on offence in just thirteen of Ottawa’s games this season, but he still caught 48 balls for 694 yards and two touchdowns on just 65 targets, making him their most efficient receiver at over 10.7 yards per target. Given the difficult matchup for the Ottawa receiving corps, he may be a more cost-efficient route to get exposure to their passing attack.

Despite being the fourth option in Ottawa’s receiving corps, RJ Harris has had a nice rookie season (CFL.ca)

Despite the return of DaVaris Daniels and Marken Michel to practice last week, the Stampeders opted for consistency and started Rogers, Ambles and Matthews in the Western Final. It remains to be seen if Daniels will replace one of the three in the Grey Cup, so players will have to keep tabs on the depth charts when they are released on Saturday. The REDBLACKS’ defence allowed 7.86 yards per target this season, which ranks in the top half of the league while allowing the third-lowest rate of receiving touchdowns per target. The difference between the top two—Calgary and Winnipeg—against Ottawa, though, is stark as their 26 total receiving touchdowns allowed was as many as Calgary and Winnipeg combined.

It seems a couple weeks’ rest was exactly what Eric Rogers needed, as his return to the starting lineup netted him three receiving touchdowns in the Western Final. His lone start against Ottawa this season also saw him score a touchdown along with 57 receiving yards on 10 targets. Coming in at a lower price than any of Ottawa’s top three receivers makes him a very appealing option. His teammates Ambles and Matthews project similarly at significantly lower salaries, but both of them average only about 60 air yards per game compared to Rogers 82′, giving him a much higher ceiling. Ambles and Matthews are the two best salary relief options on the slate, however.

Punt options at the position come in priced similarly to Matthews, making them more contrarian options than optimal ones. Brescacin’s days as a primary target in the Stamps’ passing attack seem to be behind him with the emergence of Ambles and Matthews, while field side WRs like Feoli-Gudino and Durant are almost always long shots for Fantasy production in the CFL. Feoli-Gudino saw just 15 targets this season while Durant got 44. Both did find the end zone twice, however, making them potential contest winners if they do so again on Sunday at extremely low ownership levels.

DEFENCE

Calgary Stampeders – $4,801

Ottawa REDBLACKS – $3,750

The Stampeders’ defence led the league in sacks (45), forced turnovers (49) and offensive points allowed (17.8/game), while being second in forced two-and-outs (100). That’s a nightmare matchup for Ottawa, but a great Fantasy option for players. Ottawa also allowed the second-most sacks in the league this year (43), which means Harris could be under a ton of pressure come Sunday evening.

The Ottawa defence, conversely, had the third-fewest sacks this season (33), but did manage to create 41 turnovers. They also turned three of those turnovers into defensive touchdowns while Calgary scored only twice this season on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately for Ottawa, Calgary allowed a league-low 27 sacks this season accompanied by just 36 turnovers—just four more than Ottawa.

While it is an option to leave the defence spot open to spend up elsewhere, it’s never a good idea to take a zero intentionally. The Stampeders are the clear top option, while the Ottawa defence is more of a contrarian route for those unable to afford the Calgary unit.

LINEUP CONSTRUCTION

While this space is generally reserved for stacking options, with only two teams on the slate this week, we’ll look into a few different lineup construction options based on expected game script and salary allocations. It’s essential in one-game contests like this to determine what players expect the game script to look like and craft a lineup to fit it.

Calgary Onslaught – Mitchell, Williams, Matthews or Ambles, Rogers, Stampeders

It’s quite conceivable given the math that Calgary wins this game big and it’s possible to fit almost every piece of their offence into one lineup given the low prices on Matthews and Ambles. If players are uncomfortable with Williams, it’s easy enough to swap Williams/Rogers for Jackson/Matthews or Ambles.

Ottawa plays from ahead – Mitchell, Powell, Ambles, Matthews, REDBLACKS

If Ottawa can get ahead early, it’s likely Powell receives extra work while Mitchell is forced to pass more, padding secondary receivers’ stats. Rogers isn’t really an option if paying up for Powell.

Calgary plays from ahead – Harris, Jackson, Harris, Matthews, Stampeders

It is nearly impossible to fit Trevor Harris and any of his top three targets in a lineup that also includes Don Jackson. If the Stampeders lean on Jackson heavily with a lead, Harris may be forced to go pass-heavy, but making it all fit in the same lineup is pretty difficult unless players drop to punt options like Beaulieu.

GREY CUP PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS