Fantasy Strategy: Preying on the matchups

While chasing points is a sure strategy to rack up Fantasy losses, it’s difficult to ignore players that wind up in favourable matchups for a second week in a row.

Tiger-Cats and Roughriders are going to be tough to ignore in their Canada Day Weekend tilts.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected:

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11,394

Mike Reilly, BC – $11,554

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $8,918

Punt Single(s):

Cody Fajardo, SSK – $6,235

Vernon Adams, MTL – $5,571

For the second straight week, Jeremiah Masoli sits atop the projections at quarterback as it seems Mike Reilly’s multi-year reign at that position has come to an end. Last week’s 64-point thrashing of the Argos netted Masoli 31 Fantasy points in only three quarters of work. So far in 2019, Hamilton is second only to Edmonton in passing yards per attempt (9.42) and faces a Montreal defence that allowed nearly 11 yards per pass attempt to Edmonton two weeks ago. It’s doubtful the Als defence is actually that bad, given the personnel upgrades they made in the off-season, but it’s still a matchup worth picking on with one of the most dynamic passing offences in the CFL.

Mike Reilly’s talent didn’t fall out of the back the U-Haul in his move west to Vancouver, but some clear flaws are showing in BC that have led to a pretty precipitous drop in expectations for his Fantasy prospects. Reilly has rushed with the ball only six times so far this season, down from over six carries a game a year ago, and he has yet to receive a goal line carry which was a major part of his Fantasy production in his time in Edmonton. It’s also difficult to either run or pass the football when you’re lying on your back, and the seven sacks the Lions gave up to Edmonton this past week are another major impediment to Reilly’s value.

This season’s Stampeders defence is still largely untested, so it’s difficult to say with much certainty how much pressure Reilly may face, or how many of those four interceptions from game one were on the defence or on Dominique Davis. History has shown though that a Calgary defence is never a good matchup for opposing QBs. The Lions are averaging just 7.17 yards per pass attempt this season – lower than the 7.49 with Lulay/Jennings in 2018 – so if not for his rushing potential, Reilly could legitimately project lower yet.

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It’s tough to get too excited about Bo Levi Mitchell and the Calgary passing attack that showed up in Week 1 versus the REDBLACKS. Bo averaged just 7.16 yards per attempt versus Ottawa, which is much closer to his average over the last six games of 2018 (7.58) than his average over the first 11 games (9.41). Much has been made of the Stampeders’ ability to insert the “next man up” in the receiving corps and keep winning games, but a closer look at the numbers shows this group has been much less effective than the one that started 2018 with Bo. The Lions have allowed just 7.24 yards per pass attempt to opposing QBs so far this season, so the matchup isn’t one to target either. Bo projects alright with a more moderate price tag than some other stars at the position but with much higher projections for Masoli or much better value with punt plays, Mitchell feel like unnecessary middle ground.

If Fantasy players are looking to go cheap at QB there are a couple of interesting options at only half the salary of Jeremiah Masoli. Cody Fajardo has long been on my list of potential Fantasy stars if given the opportunity to grow into a starting role, and he didn’t disappoint in his first CFL start – throwing for 360 yards and two TDs while adding another TD on the ground for a total of 29.4 Fantasy points. It’s probably unrealistic to expect that as a baseline but at this price, even 250 yards and one touchdown with a handful of rushing attempts could be great value. Add to that a matchup versus an Argos defence that allowed 12 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 yards per rush attempt last week and you’ve got great reasons to consider Fajardo.

The other punt option at QB is Montreal’s Vernon Adams, back for another stint as the starting QB for the Als. For his career, Adams averages just 7.2 yards per pass attempt but has the added value of rushing yards due to his quickness. The matchup with Hamilton isn’t ideal, as they’ve allowed just 6.9 yards per pass attempt to opposing QBs this season while averaging three sacks and three forced turnovers per game to this point. Adams is cheaper yet than Fajardo, but also comes with a lower ceiling and shakier floor.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected:

Sean Thomas Erlington, HAM – $5,102

Andrew Harris, WPG – $8,996

CJ Gable, EDM – $8,334

Fantasy players are accustomed to seeing a Canadian RB atop the projections at the position whose projections are buoyed by significant involvement in both the rushing and passing attacks. Fantasy players also assume that must be Andrew Harris. Given the gargantuan implied team total (36.75 points) for Hamilton this week though in a matchup versus Montreal, all the Ticats get significant bumps in their TD potential and that puts Sean Thomas Erlington at the top of the heap at nearly half the salary of Andrew Harris. The Hamilton rushing attack has averaged 5.6 yards per carry this season and faces a Montreal defence that allowed 5.75 yards per carry to Edmonton in Week 1 while allowing 70 offensive plays to the Eskimos. Erlington should get plenty of work in this game in the best game environment of the week.

Given Erlington’s affordable price tag, it’s quite conceivable to roll out both national RBs on Canada Day Weekend. Harris rushed for 148 yards on 16 carries in Week 1 versus BC and the Eskimos’ rush defence has continued its generous ways this season, allowing 5.84 yards per carry after allowing 5.51 yards per carry in 2018. Harris could certainly get 20-plus touches this week as the Bombers attempt to grind out the game and keep the ball out of Trevor Harris’ hands. Any other week, Winnipeg’s implied team total of 31.5 in the Vegas odds would make Harris a leading target for Fantasy purposes, but he may get lost in the shuffle a bit as folks look to stock up on Ticats, Riders, and Stampeders all with higher team total and lower salary levels.

» RELATED: Is Thomas-Erlington legit?

Sean Thomas-Erlington is one of the most-picked players in Fantasy for Week 3 (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)

After a difficult 2018 Fantasy season, C.J. Gable has come out of the gate flying in 2019, going over 100 yards rushing with 20-plus carries in each of his first two games. It’s unlikely Edmonton continues to amass 65 offensive snaps per game though, especially versus a Winnipeg defence that allowed just 44 to BC in Week 1. If Gable’s workload takes a hit, his projections are more fragile than some other RBs as his efficiency has still not been great this season. Winnipeg allowed just four rushing yards on four carries to John White in Week 1, but Edmonton should provide more commitment to the run as they have run the second highest percentage of rush plays so far this season (42%).

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Projected:

Brandon Banks, HAM – $13,700

Bryan Burnham, BC – $6,817

Derel Walker, TOR – $8,195

Duron Carter, BC – $3,519

Bralon Addison, HAM – $5,179

Greg Ellingson, EDM – $8,254

Eric Rogers, CGY – $5,784

Reggie Begelton, CGY – $4,881

Punt Single(s):

Chris Matthews, WPG – $3,500

Lucky Whitehead, WPG – $2,500

Marcus Tucker, HAM – $2,500

KD Cannon, SSK – $2,500

It’s hard to believe that a receiver averaging 10 targets per game, over 24 Fantasy points per game, and one that returns kicks could find themselves largely outside of Fantasy consideration. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what a near $14K price tag does to Brandon Banks. Banks is the most dynamic offensive player in the CFL and his matchup versus Montreal only further elevates his projections as Montreal allowed 10.9 yards per target to Edmonton in Week 1. Banks’ projections lap the field, but Fantasy players will have to punt numerous other positions to fit him in. His teammate Bralon Addison had a similarly massive game in Week 2 versus Toronto but much of his value depends on the health of Luke Tasker, as Addison’s role would diminish somewhat if Tasker returns to the lineup. Fantasy players will have to keep an eye on the depth chart when it rolls out on Thursday.

It’s a little odd having two receivers in the top four from a team with the second lowest implied team total on the weekend but it is largely a function of Burnham and Carter’s historical efficiency projected over larger workloads than they have seen for much of their careers. In just two games this season, Burnham is averaging eight targets per game while Carter has garnered 10 per game – well over their respective 5.9 and 6.1 career averages. The math would seem to show that both Burnham and Carter are bound for massive Fantasy production this season, but to this point they have both under delivered on their increased opportunities. The matchup versus Calgary doesn’t do anything to add to their appeal. Carter is still worth a shot due to his exceptionally cheap price tag, but Burnham is a more difficult spend to justify. Their teammate Lemar Durant is also worth mentioning but with a higher salary than Carter he gets lost in the mix.

Derel Walker had a disappointing debut in double blue as he got just seven targets to SJ Green’s 11 and Armanti Edwards nine in their Week 2 loss to Hamilton. It’s unlikely he remains the third option in the passing game as the season progresses but a Week 3 date with the Riders doesn’t do much to entice folks towards the Argos offence. The quiet bright spot for Walker is that he’s likely to line up at boundary WR versus Nick Marshall for much of the game and Marshall has been beaten badly numerous times this season, giving up big plays to Brandon Banks and Dominique Rhymes. Walker’s price tag is expensive, and the Argos’ implied team total is the worst on the slate at just 20.25 points, but he remains an interesting contrarian option.

For as much as Greg Ellingson disappointed Fantasy players in Week 1 while his teammates Collins and Stafford stole the show, he rewarded the faithful in Week 2 by providing nine receptions for 174 yards and two TDs, leading to 38.4 Fantasy points. The Eskimos’ high flying aerial attack should find a stiffer test on Thursday night though when they visit Winnipeg. Minus Loffler, Randle, Fogg, and Santos-Knox, this is not the same Bombers defence that allowed just 7.6 yards per target in 2018 along with the second lowest rate of receiving TDs per target, but they are still a significantly more difficult matchup than Montreal or BC have been. Ellingson is unlikely to repeat his Week 2 outburst, just as Collins and Stafford are unlikely to repeat their disappearing acts.

Greg Ellingson was one of the top receivers in a Week 2 win over BC (Esks.com)

The Stamps’ passing game hasn’t shown many fireworks in nearly half a season, but their biggest three targets are all priced appropriately to their production and project similarly as well. All of Rogers, Begelton, and Ambles have shown flashes of brilliance in the past enough to keep them in the weekly conversation, but none have shown enough sustained production recently to demand much consideration. All three project around 13 Fantasy points at mid-tier price tags but none of them separate much from the pack to become clear options. The Lions were an average pass defence in 2018 and appear to be similar in 2019 so it’s tough to get excited about the options in Calgary despite a 31.75 implied team total in the Vegas odds.

Former Stampeders receiver Chris Matthews looks to make his first start of the 2019 campaign for the Bombers versus Edmonton in Week 3. He’ll be making a transition to the slot, so it will be interesting to see how quickly he’s able to acclimatize. He comes in it a very inexpensive salary given his big play potential, but his workload is likely to be smaller given the Bombers’ penchant to run the ball. The Eskimos’ defence allowed 8.9 yards per target in 2018 but has only given up 6.3 yards per target so far this season so it remains to be seen where reality will actually shake out. Matthews’ teammate, Lucky Whitehead, will stay in the starting lineup with Kenny Lawler deactivated, and he is an interesting pure punt play with big play potential at only $2,500.

Other cheap receiver options on teams with large implied totals include Marcus Tucker in Hamilton – assuming Luke Tasker stays out – and KD Cannon for Saskatchewan. Both players have the potential to put up zeroes for Fantasy players, but both also have the downfield speed to turn only a couple targets into double digit Fantasy points in prime matchups.

DEFENCE

Top Projected:

Hamilton Tiger Cats – $4,042

Saskatchewan Roughriders – $5,197

One of the best strategies in picking Fantasy defences is just picking on the most turnover prone QBs on the slate. The Hamilton Tiger Cats have averaged three sacks and three turnovers a game to this point and now face Vernon Adams, who in four career starts has turned the ball over three times while playing for a team that allowed 66 sacks last season. At a mid-tier price tag, the Ticats’ defence is one of the safest, and surely most popular, options at the position this week.

The Roughriders defence has not lived up to expectations so far this season, scoring only a single Fantasy point so far in 2019. They have yet to force a turnover in two games while allowing 67 points to opponents. On paper though the personnel seems to be much better than the results thus far and a matchup versus Toronto in the Riders’ home opener on Canada day points to better things ahead. Last week the Argos allowed four sacks and gave up three turnovers so the Riders’ defence may finally arrive on Monday evening.

STACKS

Jeremiah Masoli > Bralon Addison, Marcus Tucker

Given the enormous salaries of Masoli and Banks, that stack just isn’t feasible at this point, but if Tasker continues to be out of the lineup this week a double stack of Addison and Tucker with Masoli still provides access to the matchup versus Montreal.

Cody Fajardo > Shaq Evans, Naaman Roosevelt, Kyran Moore

The cheap salary on Fajardo allows Fantasy players to stack him with one or more options from the Riders diverse receiving corps in an enticing matchup with Toronto, while still having lots of salary remaining for top RBs.

Vernon Adams > BJ Cunningham

BJ Cunningham has been Vernon Adams’ favoured target in their time together and they make for a nice cheap stack option to allow Fantasy players to load up elsewhere.

WEEK 3 PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS