CFL Simulation: Bombers-Ticats matchup a sign of things to come?

TORONTO — The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Winnipeg Blue Bombers will go head-to-head for the second time this year, and according to the CFL Simulation, it could be an early showing of the 107th Grey Cup.

With their victory over the Eskimos in Week 15, the Tiger-Cats have all but wrapped up the East, winning the division over 96 percent of the time.

Winnipeg also clinched a playoff berth. They won the West Division 65 percent of the time and also have 90 percent odds to host a playoff game.

The simulation determined these two teams to be the most likely to go up against one another for the championship, with them squaring off nearly half the time.

Calgary and Montreal continue to improve their odds with victories in Week 15. The Stamps are featured in one of the most likely Grey Cup matchups while the Als are in three.

Both the Toronto Argonauts and Ottawa REDBLACKS are both out of the running for the East crown. Toronto still has a brief glimpse of hope to make the playoffs in the sim, however, Ottawa has under 0.01 percent to make it.

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The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up: