Fantasy Strategy: Fajardo, Evans set to tear it up again

With two-thirds of the season in the books, it’s become increasingly apparent who the pretenders and contenders really are. The Week 16 projections highlight some studs worth sticking with regardless of matchup and some tricky decisions to be made between players in situations where only one is likely to succeed.

QUARTERBACK

Chris Streveler, WPG – $8,058

Cody Fajardo, SSK – $8,463

Trevor Harris, EDM – $10,576

Mike Reilly, BC – $9,902

Chris Streveler is a wild, untamable, beast of a man and a Fantasy weapon unlike any the league has seen in a long time. Much was made of the argument between the Bombers and Alouettes in Week 15 over whether Andrew Harris or William Stanback is the best RB in the league, but those questions were answered on Saturday when it was shown that Streveler is actually the best RB around. The fact that he has the opportunity to add passing yards and TDs to his totals only adds to his value as a runner. Since taking over as the starting QB, he has averaged 18.4 Fantasy points per game with his rushing totals alone. The matchup versus Hamilton this week is only slightly better than average from a rushing perspective but is the second most difficult on the slate from a passing perspective as Hamilton allows just 7.75 yards per pass attempt and the lowest rate of passing TDs per attempt this season. Streveler is a solid option but not worth trying to stack with receiving options.

The Roughriders travel east to Toronto, following their bye week, where Cody Fajardo will try to get the Saskatchewan passing attack back on track. He has passed for over 300 yards just twice in his past nine games, with just one game with multiple passing scores over that same period. Thankfully, the Argos defence allows the highest rate of passing yards (9.22) and TDs per attempt in the league and should give Fajardo an optimal environment in which to excel. The Riders also project for the second-most plays from scrimmage this week giving them ample opportunities to succeed in a high-efficiency environment.

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As of now, it’s still uncertain as to whether it will be Trevor Harris or Logan Kilgore under centre for the Eskimos on Saturday afternoon. Harris has been a limited participant in practice to this point. If Harris is a go, he’ll get a prime matchup with an Ottawa defence that seems to struggle more each week. They have now passed Montreal and allow the second-most yards per pass attempt on the season (8.99). They have also allowed 41 total TDs to this point – 19 of those through the air. I comparison, the Roughriders defence has allowed just 20 total TDs to this point. Edmonton also projects for the most plays from scrimmage this week (60.8), making whoever starts at QB for Edmonton worthy of consideration.

Ottawa’s relative lack of ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks helped resuscitate Mike Reilly’s 2019 Fantasy value as he compiled 670 total yards and six TDs in back to back matchups with the Redblacks. That home and home series being done, it would seem to follow his success may flounder again as well, but a matchup with an Adams-less Alouettes team may keep his good run going. The Als are the only opponent with fewer sacks than Ottawa to this point (18) and should give Reilly ample time to work versus their secondary which allows the third most yards per pass attempt (8.95) and an average rate of TDs per pass attempt as well. Given the higher projections on cheaper QBs, Reilly is again more of a contrarian option, but certainly still worthy of consideration.

RUNNING BACK

Andrew Harris, WPG – $10,396

William Powell, SSK – $8,435

William Stanback, MTL – $7,003

John White, BC – $6,865

Following his suspension, Andrew Harris had a solid return to the starting lineup with 76 yards rushing and his best game as a receiver this season with five receptions for 112 yards. Hamilton is allowing just a slightly above average of yards per carry this season (5.26) but that has been brought down significantly over the past two weeks with matchups versus Edmonton and Calgary – the two of the three least efficient rushing teams in the CFL. The Hamilton rush defence actually allowed closer to six yards per carry earlier this season. It’s worth noting that Harris and Streveler have a negative scoring correlation on each other though as they vulture each other’s TDs, so Fantasy players should likely choose one or the other rather than going all-in on the Bombers’ backfield.

William Powell has been a rather mercurial Fantasy option this season with four games of 20+ Fantasy points but five games with 12 or fewer points. This week’s matchup with the Argonauts should provide him ample room to run as a rusher or receiver as Toronto allows the most yards per attempt both on the ground (5.61) and through the air (9.22). They also allow the most TDs per target and second-most TDs per carry to opposing offences, so if there were ever a weekend to predict a Powell ceiling game, this would be it.

The other William wasn’t nearly as fortunate last week as he had only slightly more production versus Winnipeg (3.9 Fantasy points) than Powell did on his bye week. The Alouettes go down early and he was nearly phased out of the offence altogether in a negative game script. This week’s matchup versus BC would be difficult to start with as they allow the second-fewest yards per carry in the league (4.82), but the loss of Vernon Adams to suspension makes it that much more difficult to expect a bounce-back week for Stanback. However, Montreal averages the second-most yards per carry in the CFL (5.6) and may choose to lean heavily on Stanback with Shiltz expected to start at QB. He’s a risky option, but the significantly reduced salary he offers makes him worthy of consideration.

His opponent for the Lions, John White, had a strong return from injury in Week 15 versus Ottawa with 20.4 Fantasy points on the back of 114 scrimmage yards and a TD. The Alouettes defence may not be quite as generous on the TD front, but they allow the second-most yards per rush attempt this season (5.49) and BC is expected to play from ahead again this week with Vernon Adams sidelined due to a suspension. White should be expected to put up a third straight solid week for a BC running back in a game script that projects for increased opportunities. All this being said, although Stanback and White are the two top values at RB this week, it’s likely wise for Fantasy players to pick one or the other as the game script will likely limit the touches of one while increases the touches of the other.

RECEIVER

Brandon Banks, HAM – $12,305

Bryan Burnham, BC – $10,043

Bralon Addison, HAM – $9,439

Greg Ellingson, EDM – $8,241

DaVaris Daniels, EDM – $7,915

Derel Walker, TOR – $9,127

Shaq Evans, SSK – $6,629

Quan Bray, MTL – $4,495

Ricky Collins, EDM – $5,444

Lemar Durant, BC – $5,572

Punt Single(s):

Cory Watson, BC – $3,671

The duo of Banks and Addison continue to lead the projections at receiver weekly despite low projections for Dane Evans due to their high volume and big-play ability. With a projection for over 18 combined targets, they account for well over half of Evans workload. Banks gets the added bonus of some work in the return game, while Addison gets a handful of carries out of the backfield weekly, so both have added value beyond their receiving value. The matchup with Winnipeg leaves Hamilton projected for just average efficiency this week (8.2 yards per target) but as Adams and the Als showed last week, big plays are still possible versus the Bombers – they’ve allowed the third-most receptions of 30+ yards this season (19).

Of receivers active this week, Burnham has the highest WOPR (0.69), and the second-most targets per game (8.25) and air yards per game (96). In essence, he has the most opportunity to succeed of any WR in the league on a weekly basis and this week faces a Montreal defence that allows the third most yards per target to opposing WRs (8.95). The Alouettes inability to generate pressure on opposing QBs should leave ample time for Reilly to find Burnham downfield and that makes him a solid Fantasy option again in Week 16. Lemar Durant is a fine mid-tier option at nearly half the salary of Burnham, but similarly with about half the opportunity to produce.

Much of the value of the Edmonton trio of Ellingson, Daniels, and Collins hinges on who will start at QB for the Eskimos versus Ottawa. Despite having 10 targets in Week 15 versus Hamilton, Daniels only managed to get two receptions for 19 yards in the game as Kilgore’s downfield passes were regularly off the mark. The matchup with the Redblacks is enticing for opposing receivers as they allow the second-most yards per target (8.99) this season and have given up at least two receiving TDs in each of their past three games. If Ellingson or Daniels are going to pay off their high salaries though, it’s likely only going to come with Harris back under centre. If Kilgore starts again for Edmonton, it’s likely wise to avoid the whole receiving corps.

Derel Walker gets the unenviable task of facing a Roughriders defence that has allowed below average rates of yards (7.76) and TDs per attempt while having to deal with yet another change at QB. Despite the turmoil, Walker has averaged 154 air yards per game over his past three games, while leading the league in targets (35) and TDs (3) in that span. In two other games earlier this season with Franklin as the starting QB, Walker had just 10 targets for five receptions and 123 total yards, so it remains to be seen if he can keep up the scorching pace. The rest of the Argos receiving corps is more dart throws than educated guesses, as all of Edwards, Green, and Smith are among the worst values at the position this week.

On the other hand, the members of the Roughriders receiving corps are all interesting upside options versus a Toronto defence that allows the most yards per target (9.22) and TDs per target to opposing receivers this season. They also all come at mid-tier to low salaries due to the run-heavy nature of the Riders scoring profile. Shaq Evans leads the group in projected scoring, but none of them really pop as values due to the spread-out nature of the market share of targets. It also remains to be seen how Jordan Williams-Lambert will affect the other receivers’ opportunities going forward. Each of Evans, Roosevelt, Williams-Lambert, and Watson are possible candidates for a huge game, but it’s difficult to make a solid case for any of them above and beyond the rest.

DEFENCE

BC Lions – $3,238

Edmonton Eskimos – $3,950

The suspension of Vernon Adams leaves the Alouettes QB position to Matthew Shiltz, but its certainly possible that Antonio Pipkin could make an appearance as well. Shiltz averaged nearly an interception per game in college and has done about the same in the CFL, so BC should have opportunities to rack up points on defence again this week as they did the past two weeks versus Ottawa. Montreal has also allowed the fourth-most sacks in the league (28), so the Lions may have increased opportunities for QB pressures like they have had in the past two weeks versus Ottawa where the compiled a third of their season total of sacks (6/18).

The Eskimos defence is expected to get back the services of Jovan Santos-Knox from IR to further improve their unit and will get to face some combination of Jon Jennings, Dominique Davis, and Will Arndt at QB for the Redblacks. Ottawa averages just 15.3 offensive points per game and has scored a total of 12 over the past two weeks. They are also third in sacks allowed (29) while having allowed a league-high 43 turnovers. The Eskimos, on the other hand, allow the fewer plays per game to opposing offences (49.9), while creating the second-most sacks (37) and forcing 25 total turnovers. It could be a big game for a relatively inexpensive Edmonton defence.

STACKS

Cody Fajardo > Shaq Evans

The targets get pretty evenly split, but Evans is clearly the most significant big-play threat in the Riders receiving corps. If anyone will exploit the Argos defence, it will likely be him.

Trevor Harris > DaVaris Daniels

Daniels is one of the most highly targeted downfield threats in the league. If Harris is back in the lineup, they could have a big day versus Ottawa.

Chris Streveler > His Beard

He doesn’t even need help to win you Fantasy matchups. Fear the beard.

Week 16 Projections

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS