TORONTO — There’s a new team that’s surging down the stretch and vastly improving their odds in the CFL Simulation.
Wins by both the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Hamilton Tiger-Cats keep them among the top teams to appear and win the Grey Cup.
As winners of their last four games, the BC Lions have received the biggest bump among teams in this week’s simulation. With their latest victory over Toronto, their percentage of making the playoffs rose from 20 to 52 percent. Their odds to make the Grey Cup also improved by seven percent and their chances to win the whole thing. They also feature in the fifth-most common championship matchup.
That leaves the Edmonton Eskimos falling further down the ranks in the sim. Their odds to make playoffs went from nearly 80 percent to under 50 with their loss to Hamilton paired with BC’s win.
Toronto has become the first team that has been eliminated across the board, but depending on the outcome of the BC-Edmonton game in Week 18, there could be more teams added to that.
The model considers the following:
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up:
|Odds to make playoffs|
|Team (Projected 2019 record)||Projection|
|Hamilton Tiger-Cats (14-4)||Clinched|
|Calgary Stampeders (12-6)||Clinched|
|Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6)||Clinched|
|Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7)||Clinched|
|Montreal Alouettes (10-8)||Clinched|
|BC Lions (8-10)||52.75%|
|Edmonton Eskimos (7-11)||47.25%|
|Ottawa REDBLACKS (4-14)||<0.01%|
|Toronto Argonauts (4-14)||Eliminated|
|Odds to host playoff game|
|Winnipeg Blue Bombers||45.28%|
|Odds to win East|
|Odds to win West|
|Winnipeg Blue Bombers||6.21%|
|Odds to appear in 107th Grey Cup|
|Winnipeg Blue Bombers||11.83%|
|Odds to Win the 107th Grey Cup|
|Winnipeg Blue Bombers||4.16%|
|Most likely matchups in 107th Grey Cup|