CFL Simulation: Who will reign supreme out West?

TORONTO — The West Division crown is still up for grabs going into Week 21, and with several outcomes still in play, the CFL Simulation looks at what each team’s chances are as the regular season comes to a close.

With their victory over the Edmonton Eskimos in Week 20, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have clinched their spot in the playoffs. There’s still a lot to figure out in the final games of the regular season, they’ve improved their odds to win the west by over 20 percent. This would mark the first time Saskatchewan has taken the West since the 2009 season.

The Riders also have 77 percent odds to take home the 107th Grey Cup presented by Shaw and a 44 percent chance to win the whole thing.

While the Riders are rising, the Stamps’ odds diminished with their loss to Winnipeg. They’ve now dropped to 10 percent odds to win the West and a 17 percent chance to defend their title at home.

Winnipeg still has a chance to host the Western Semi-Final, however, Saskatchewan clinching did drop some of their odds. They’re also featured in the third-most likely championship matchup.

As has been the case for the majority of this year, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats hold the best odds to both appear in and win the championship game. They’re also featured in the three most likely Grey Cup matchups.

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The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up: