November 19, 2019

CFL Simulation: Who will reign supreme?

Johany Jutras/CFL.ca

CALGARY — Who will be hoisting the trophy on Sunday and who will have a long plane ride home? The CFL Simulation makes its pick for the winner of the 107th Grey Cup presented by Shaw.

While most will consider the Hamilton Tiger-Cats the favourites to win it all — They’re the bettering favourite (-3.5), according to LeoVegas — the sim has predicted that it will be the Winnipeg Blue Bombers that will snap their Grey Cup drought.

The key point that appears to separate the pair of teams is that Winnipeg has strung together two playoff victories on the road.  The Calgary win, in particular, featured a convincing margin of victory.

Because the system favours road victories, the odds have swayed in the direction of the Blue and Gold.

Although Hamilton’s 20-point victory over Edmonton was undoubtedly impressive, Winnipeg’s road victories are carrying plenty of weight.


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The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up:

Odds to Win 107th Grey Cup
Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 64.2%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 35.8%