Jimmy Jeong/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The game itself was a treat to watch and if you’re a Saskatchewan Roughriders fan, you’ll like what you’re about to see below.
The Riders and BC Lions gave us a game of the year candidate last week. With their dramatic win, Cody Fajardo and the Riders have seen their odds of post-season success shoot up from last week. If the CFL Simulation were capable of things like emotion, it would have smiled on the green team in this week’s update. Instead, it remains fixed in its stoic, numbers-based reality.
The Riders won both of their encounters with the Lions, taking the season series last week at BC Place. If things hold the way that they have so far this year, that game had serious implications for who would host the Western Semi-Final on Nov. 28.
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As we sit at the midpoint of the regular-season, a lot of things can still happen. Perhaps Edmonton or Calgary finds its way in the next seven weeks and the playoff race in the West becomes crowded and more competitive.
We’ve also gone this far and not mentioned the team that has dominated these projections week after week. The Bombers are coming off of a bye week and head into what should be a very good game in BC on Friday. As excellent as they’ve been, they’re just a game ahead of the Riders in the standings.
Out East, the Alouettes are in Hamilton on Saturday, where a loss to the Ticats would drop them to 2-5, matching their record with an Ottawa team that had some life pumped into it with its Tuesday win over Edmonton (which is accounted for in this update). The Ticats are looking to separate themselves from the Argos in their battle for first place. We’re smack in the middle of the season and it feels like there’s a ton of activity afoot.
Check out where your team sits at the moment and what the simulation sees for it two months from now.
ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS |
|
| Team (Projected 2021 Record) | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-4) | 99.60% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-6) | 94.88% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-6) | 93.73% |
| BC Lions (8-6) | 89.67% |
| Toronto Argonauts (8-6) | 87.39% |
| Montreal Alouettes (6-8) | 55.54% |
| Calgary Stampeders (5-9) | 27.35% |
| Edmonton Elks (5-9) | 26.68% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-9) | 25.16% |
ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 91.03% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 86.63% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 73.11% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 59.61% |
| BC Lions | 41.27% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 29.01% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 11.26% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 4.49% |
| Edmonton Elks | 3.59% |
ODDS TO WIN EAST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 62.77% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 25.84% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 9.14% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 2.25% |
ODDS TO WIN WEST |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 72.41% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 13.30% |
| BC Lions | 12.77% |
| Edmonton Elks | 0.95% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 0.57% |
ODDS TO APPEAR IN 108TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 56.44% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 49.71% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 30.50% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 24.29% |
| BC Lions | 16.95% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 11.27% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 4.13% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 3.36% |
| Edmonton Elks | 3.35% |
ODDS TO WIN 108TH GREY CUP |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 35.46% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 17.08% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 16.27% |
| BC Lions | 10.74% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 9.20% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 3.55% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 1.77% |
| Edmonton Elks | 1.70% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 1.23% |
MOST LIKELY 108TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Hamilton | 28.49% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 17.21% |
| Saskatchewan-Hamilton | 11.40% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 7.57% |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 5.90% |
The model considers the following:
- Each team’s current win-loss record.
- Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
- Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
- Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
- Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).
For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
