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October 5, 2021

CFL Simulation: Bombers grow more dominant

Photo: The Canadian Press

TORONTO —  With another week of regular-season action in the books, we saw things at the top stay the same, with some interesting movement throughout the league.

The CFL simulation reflects that this week. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have now won five straight and with each win, they gain more and more confidence from the simulator. The numbers below tell the full story, but if you want one thing to note this week, consider this: The Bombers currently have a 50.20 per cent chance of winning the Grey Cup. Given the choice between “Winnipeg” and “the field” it would take the Bombers.

Despite their loss to Calgary last week, the Riders still stand slightly above the pile of teams that are at or around the .500 mark. Joining those teams in that mix this week is the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who fell to the Montreal Alouettes in overtime last week. That helps add to the logjam in the East, but also leaves a feeling of the Division still being very much up for grabs.  The Ottawa REDBLACKS are still somewhat removed from that race based on probabilities — topping a team with a similar record doesn’t help their cause a lot — but they’re more in it now than they were last week. A win against division rival Toronto or Montreal this week would help their cause with the simulation and could make the East race that much more interesting.


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As we get ready to delve into Week 10, take a look at the odds below and see where your team stands this week.

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

Team (Projected 2021 Record) Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-4) 99.97%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-6) 91.24%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-6) 87.11%
Toronto Argonauts (7-7) 86.26%
BC Lions (7-7) 75.59%
Montreal Alouettes (7-7) 75.47%
Calgary Stampeders (6-8) 37.00%
Edmonton Elks (5-9) 25.50%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (5-9) 21.86%

 

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 99.98%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 68.64%
Toronto Argonauts 68.28%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 61.38%
Montreal Alouettes 52.02%
BC Lions 25.83%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 11.05%
Calgary Stampeders 8.63%
Edmonton Elks 5.19%

 

ODDS TO WIN EAST

Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 40.50%
Toronto Argonauts 31.55%
Montreal Alouettes 24.77%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 3.18%

 

ODDS TO WIN WEST

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 94.16%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 2.91%
BC Lions 2.87%
Edmonton Elks 0.03%
Calgary Stampeders 0.03%

 

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 70.88%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 35.61%
Toronto Argonauts 33.59%
Montreal Alouettes 22.85%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 17.22%
BC Lions 8.08%
Calgary Stampeders 4.47%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 4.43%
Edmonton Elks 2.87%

 

ODDS TO WIN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 50.20%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 11.49%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 11.41%
Toronto Argonauts 9.54%
Montreal Alouettes 6.95%
BC Lions 4.95%
Calgary Stampeders 2.63%
Edmonton Elks 1.56%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 1.27%

 

MOST LIKELY 108TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS

Team Projection
Winnipeg-Hamilton 25.40%
Winnipeg-Toronto 23.88%
Winnipeg-Montreal 15.94%
Saskatchewan-Hamilton 5.80%
Saskatchewan-Toronto 5.78%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

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