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October 14, 2021

CFL Simulation: The Bombers lead the pack

Photo: The Canadian Press

TORONTO — This week, the CFL Simulation’s favourite team is on the verge of doing what is statistically a near-certainty.

With a win over Edmonton on Friday night, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers would improve to 9-1, securing their spot in the 2021 playoffs. The simulation has them currently gives them a >99.99 per cent chance of a playoff appearance. They are also the statistical favourites (once again) in every category that they’re in.

Beyond the Bombers’ usual dominance, the Toronto Argonauts have seen their probability of playoff success jump up after their dramatic win in Hamilton last week. At 6-3, the Argos are currently the favourites in the East and the team currently pegged as the Bombers’ biggest threat.

The simulation also is warming up to the Calgary Stampeders. After taking a pair of games from Saskatchewan, the 4-5 Stamps are in the thick of a crowded pack of West Division teams that are chasing the Bombers, looking to at least host the West Semi-Final.


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Have a look at where your team sits this week and what its post-season odds are.

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS

Team (Projected 2021 Record) Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-3) >99.99%
Toronto Argonauts (9-5) 98.79%
Montreal Alouettes (7-7) 85.59%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (7-7) 80.32%
BC Lions (7-7) 74.32%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 73.90%
Calgary Stampeders (6-8) 64.14%
Edmonton Elks (5-9) 16.04%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (4-10) 6.90%

 

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 99.88%
Toronto Argonauts 92.90%
Montreal Alouettes 64.82%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 39.69%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 38.16%
BC Lions 34.56%
Calgary Stampeders 24.48%
Edmonton Elks 2.93%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 2.58%

 

ODDS TO WIN EAST

Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts 62.49%
Montreal Alouettes 24.81%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 12.51%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.19%

 

ODDS TO WIN WEST

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 97.81%
BC Lions 1.59%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 0.30%
Calgary Stampeders 0.30%
Edmonton Elks E*

* E refers to a team being eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 76.91%
Toronto Argonauts 54.66%
Montreal Alouettes 24.45%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 15.97%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 9.89%
Calgary Stampeders 8.28%
BC Lions 7.62%
Edmonton Elks 1.42%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.80%

 

ODDS TO WIN 108TH GREY CUP

Team Projection
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 57.21%
Toronto Argonauts 14.65%
Montreal Alouettes 6.87%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 6.26%
Calgary Stampeders 5.05%
BC Lions 4.56%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 4.53%
Edmonton Elks 0.69%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.18%

 

MOST LIKELY 108TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS

Team Projection
Winnipeg-Toronto 42.15%
Winnipeg-Montreal 18.71%
Winnipeg-Hamilton 12.32%
Saskatchewan-Toronto 5.00%
Calgary-Toronto 3.57%

The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

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