CFL Simulation: Chasing the Xs and Ys in the standings

TORONTO — If you’re regularly checking in on these ever-changing odds, you’ll see some definitive changes this week.

There are a lot more Cs (teams that have clinched a particular outcome) and the amount of Es (teams that are eliminated from a particular outcome) is growing by the week. This week, two teams are fighting for an X (a clinched playoff spot) next to their name in the standings, while two are fighting for a Y (the clinching of the division).

There are still things that need to shake out. The East is still up for grabs and in the West, the Riders don’t quite have that semi-final playoff game set in Regina yet. The Riders’ opponent could be sorted out this weekend, with the Stampeders travelling to BC Place to face the Lions on Friday night. A Calgary win seals the deal for them. A BC win could put the Stamps in win-or-go-home mode against Winnipeg next week, if BC were to handle Edmonton next Friday as well.

Then there’s the dominant elephant in the room.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention what the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have shown here this season, week after victorious week. They have an 84.63 per cent chance of appearing in the 108th Grey Cup next month. They have a 71.48 per cent chance of winning it. They unsurprisingly make up three of the five most likely Grey Cup matches at the moment.

Will the next two weeks change that at all? With the Bombers perhaps opting to rest some key players with the playoffs approaching, losses are more likely, albeit inconsequential for the team’s playoff positioning.

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Have a look below to see the simulation’s latest update on your team’s chances.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 100,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team). For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 20,190 of the 100,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 20,190 / 100,000 = 20.19%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.