Week 15 Projections: Getting strategic w/ rosters

With some teams’ playoff fates already set, it’s getting to that time of year where pre-postseason rest becomes a factor in setting CFL Fantasy lineups. Winnipeg is the primary concern in Week 15, but that doesn’t necessarily preclude them from having big games as the matchup with Montreal presents some opportunities for them. Without the Ottawa defence on the slate to pick on, fantasy players will have to be a little more thoughtful while setting lineups for Week 15 of CFL Fantasy contests.

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Michael Reilly is up against a tough Stampeders’ defence this weekend, but having Lucky Whitehead in the lineup should help his fantasy totals (Photo: The Canadian Press)

QUARTERBACK

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11,202
Michael Reilly, BC – $9,639

Jeremiah Masoli didn’t return the performance that fantasy players hoped for in Week 14, but he has had at least 15 fantasy points in four straight games after having not surpassed that mark once before Week 10. Before his return from the injured list, the Ticats were averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt but are up to 8.1 yards per attempt on the season since he’s been back.

Toronto’s defence has been better than average in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.95), but they continue to give up passing TDs per attempt at the third-highest clip in the league, behind only Ottawa and Edmonton. Big plays have also been an issue for them, allowing the second-most completions of 30-plus yards in 2021 (20). Masoli is expensive, but his receivers remain among the most affordable stacking options in Week 15.

If Zach Collaros had been guaranteed to play the whole game versus Montreal on Saturday afternoon, there’s a chance that he would have wound up being the top QB option this week. The Alouettes have allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt this season (8.1), and Winnipeg continues to be the most efficient passing attack in the league. The Bombers are averaging 9.23 yards per attempt with the highest rate of passing TDs per attempt. With Winnipeg resting Collaros, Sean McGuire and company are much riskier options.

On the other hand, Michael Reilly does not have the issue of potentially losing playing time, but he does have to face a Stampeders defence that seems to have hit its stride in the second half of the season. Despite a difficult start to the campaign, the Stamps allow the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.73) and the second-lowest rate of passing TDs per attempt this season.

In Week 11, Reilly managed just 2.0 fantasy points versus Calgary and they have added Tre Roberson back to the mix since then. The return of Lucky Whitehead may boost Reilly’s stock a bit, but this is probably still a matchup worth passing on.

If Ka’Deem Carey can add a few receptions into his game on Friday night in Vancouver, he could be set for a big fantasy night (Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca)

RUNNING BACK

William Stanback, MTL – $9,513
Ka’Deem Carey, CGY – $8,188
D.J. Foster, TOR – $5,155

Punt Single:

Walter Fletcher, EDM – $4,500

As has been the story for much of this season, Stanback had a great game from a football perspective, turning 16 carries versus Winnipeg into 106 yards on the ground. From a fantasy perspective, that just won’t cut it at a near $10K salary. Without much of a role in the passing attack, Stanback needs to get in the end zone to reach value, and he’s done that just three times to this point.

Given that Winnipeg allows the second-most yards per carry at 5.4 and that Montreal leads the league with 5.86 yards per attempt on the ground, it’s likely Stanback puts up another 100-plus yard rushing performance. Unfortunately for fantasy players, that’s not enough to make him a reasonable fantasy option in Week 15.

Unlike Stanback, who plays in an elite rushing offence in an elite rushing matchup but with a low team total, Carey plays in the second-worst rushing offence in the league at just 4.59 yards per carry and faces the third-stingiest defence in that regard (BC – 4.9). It also doesn’t help that he has to share carries with Ante Milanovic-Litre. What works in Carey’s favour is the Stamps’ unnaturally high rate of TDs per carry and the hopes that he can have a game with four or more receptions, something accomplished four times this season. Carey is still quite overpriced given the matchup, but he’s not entirely out of consideration given his ceiling.

With John White out with a knee injury, the cheaper RBs in Week 15 are likely better options than the top-priced ones. D.J. Foster has been a full participant in practice this week after sitting out Week 14. If he garners most of the touches in the Argos’ backfield, he’s still a decent value despite facing a Hamilton defence that has allowed a league-low 4.33 yards per carry and the second-fewest yards per target (7.34).

Foster’s explosive speed and ability to rack up points in PPR scoring as a receiver keeps him an option.
The other cheaper RB that makes a decent option in Week 15 is Walter Fletcher, if James Wilder Jr. continues to miss time with an ankle injury. Fletcher turned his first start last week versus the Riders into a 19-fantasy-point debut, including five receptions and 140 total yards. Getting 5.3 yards per carry against the Riders, who allow just 4.45 yards per carry this season, is a solid showing in its own right. The going may be a little more difficult in front of a raucous crowd in Mosaic Stadium on Saturday night, but the salary and volume combination makes him pretty difficult to avoid this week.

Nic Demski has thrived this season with Zach Collaros. Will that chemistry carryover this week with Sean McGuire at quarterback for the Bombers? (Photo: BlueBombers.com)

RECEIVER

Kenny Lawler, WPG – $9,868
Kamar Jorden, CGY – $10,890
Nic Demski, WPG – $7,548
Lucky Whitehead, BC – $9,320
Bryan Burnham, BC – $10,150
Shaq Evans, SSK – $6,280
Kurleigh Gittens Jr. TOR – $5,841
Eugene Lewis, MTL – $10,061
Reginald Begelton, CGY – $11,775
Rasheed Bailey, WPG – $6,987

Punt Single(s):

Kian Schaffer-Baker, SSK – $3,892
Dres Anderson, TOR – $2,500
Jalen Tolliver, EDM – $2,500
Reggie White Jr., MTL – $2,500

Winnipeg receivers carry the risk of rest in the game if they are up early, so keep that in mind when considering spending $7K on their receivers. However, if they play a full game, Lawler and Demski are the two clear top options on the slate. Winnipeg averages the most yards and TDs per target to this point and Montreal allows above-average rates to receivers in both categories. Both Lawler and Demski had solid 15-plus fantasy point outings versus the Als a week ago, and there’s no reason to believe they’ll struggle in Week 15. Rasheed Bailey’s salary has jumped slightly despite being the clear third option in the receiving corps, so he’s a lot tougher to justify the playing time risk with a nearly $7K salary.

The Lions’ receivers will face a pretty stern test against Calgary this week, but it does appear Lucky Whitehead is back to full strength following an outing in which he turned 13 targets into nine receptions for 98 yards against a solid Hamilton secondary. With Burnham slowed with an injury, Whitehead may become even more important for BC. Calgary has allowed just 7.73 yards per target and the second-lowest rate of receiving TDs per target as well, so Lucky will have to be lucky to hit value in Week 15. Without Whitehead’s extreme efficiency – behind only Jake Wieneke in 2021 – the rest of the BC receivers project quite poorly in the matchup and they need ceiling-type performances to justify their salaries.

Shaq Evans‘ stat line of six receptions for 51 yards isn’t exciting anyone, but his having been targeted 12 times in the Riders’ first game without Kyran Moore should get the attention of fantasy players. That was likely a bottom 20th percentile outcome for Evans, given that workload and context. If he continues to get that kind of workload versus Edmonton in Week 15, the sky is the limit for him and he could be the top play at the position with a salary in just the $6K range.

Fajardo’s deep ball accuracy continues to miss the mark somewhat in 2021, but if those targets of 15-plus yards start to hit, eventually Evans, Williams and Schaffer-Baker could explode. The Elks’ yardage and TD allowed rates have continued to climb over the past month and Edmonton now allows the most passing TDs per attempt this season. The opportunity for a 90th percentile performance is there for Shaq Evans if Fajardo can make it happen.

Every fantasy player expected the Argos’ receiving corps to be a gold mine in Week 14 against the REDBLACKS, but Gittens was the only one who found the end zone, despite 41 total targets for the group. Despite his big-play abilities, Daniels turned his 13 targets into nine receptions for just 84 yards, while Collins managed six receptions for just 44 yards on his nine targets.

Dres Anderson may have had four receptions for 80 yards at minimum salary but having produced that on an unexpectedly high 10 targets from McBeth is quite something. The going will be much more challenging for the group in Week 15 versus Hamilton, as they have allowed the second-fewest yards per target this season (7.34) and below-average rates of receiving TDs per target as well. Gittens, Collins and Daniels are options at moderate salaries given their workloads, while Anderson is a fine punt option at $2,500. It’s just unlikely any of them see near their Week 14 target levels in a much more difficult matchup and they’ll have to be much more efficient than they were in Week 14 to be worth it.

Reggie Begelton is back in the Stamps’ lineup and looking to help inject some offensive punch to it for the final stretch of the 2021 season (Geoff Robins/CFL.ca)

Bageltown has re-opened for business in Calgary. While that’s great for Stampeders’ fans, it presents a bit of a conundrum for fantasy players trying to discern what that does to Stamps’ target shares with Reggie Begelton in the lineup in Week 15. Begelton saw nearly 8.5 targets per game in 2019, but that was with Kamar Jorden out of the lineup. It’s difficult to envision how Jorden and Begelton coexist with a whopping 17 targets per game between them in a Stampeders’ offence that has tended to spread things around relatively evenly. It may be that some Begelton targets come at the expense of Jorden, but more likely, it flatlines the values of players like Ambles and Mayala, who carry mid-tier salaries with potential diminishing involvement.

At a near $12K salary, Begelton is unplayable unless Bo Levi Mitchell turns around his struggles and until Begelton’s role in the offence becomes clear. Jorden is a similarly risky play over $10K due to the uncertainty over what Begelton’s presence will mean for him. The matchup with BC is kind of neutral as they have allowed around average rates of yards and TDs per target this season and Jorden had just 9.8 fantasy points against BC in Week 2. The total projections for Calgary receivers are fine, but their salaries generally exclude them from consideration.

The Hamilton group of Banks, Dunbar, White, and Acklin make up four of the six top projected receivers outside of the top-10 in Week 15, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t interesting. Given they all average five to six targets a week, none of them will pop in the projections but given their mid-tier salaries – excluding Banks – they are all worthy of consideration in Masoli stacks or as one-offs in the right lineups.

Hamilton’s has been maybe the most consistent passing attack in the second half of the season and their matchup with Toronto is pretty enticing, given Toronto has kept only Ottawa under 23 points in any game since September 17 – with four games over 27 points allowed in that span. They have also given up the second-highest rate of TDs per target to opposing receivers in 2021, making explosive players like Dunbar and White especially interesting this week.

While Tolliver and White, from Edmonton and Montreal respectively, may be punt options for those looking for bargain-basement options to fill out lineups, rostering any Edmonton or Montreal receivers at this point in their respective matchups is ill-advised. The Elks’ passing attack only came alive when the Riders took their foot off the gas in Week 14, and no receiver has had a big game versus Winnipeg to this point.

DEFENCE

Hamilton Tiger-Cats – $3,699
BC Lions – $3,200

While the Bombers’ defence continues to be a consistent fantasy producer regardless of the matchup, most players aren’t looking to spend over $5K at the position. Hamilton may be a good option for fantasy players looking for a mid-tier priced unit. They have averaged eight fantasy points per game versus Toronto this season and McBeth has thrown 10 interceptions in his past five starts.

Speaking of targeting struggling quarterbacks, the Lions’ defence gets to face Calgary and Bo Levi Mitchell, who has just one TD to four INTs against BC in 2021, with a nearly 1:2 ratio overall this season. The Lions’ defence has struggled of late, but they are worthy of consideration at minimum salary.

STACKS

Jeremiah Masoli > Steven Dunbar, Tim White

Masoli may be expensive, but his stacking options are quite affordable. Priced over $11K, it’s reasonable to expect at least two of his receivers will have to have big games to pay off that tag. With salaries in the $5K range, Dunbar and White are high ceiling options for a potentially big game for Hamilton versus division rival Toronto.

Cody Fajardo > Shaq Evans, Kian Schaffer-Baker

It’s not a stretch to say we haven’t seen the same productivity from Fajardo in 2021 that we saw in 2019. He’s gone from leading the league in passing yards to having just one game over 300 yards passing this season. His passing rates for fantasy points per attempt are barely above “The Davis Line” at 0.38 so far. However, both Evans and Schaffer-Baker are significantly discounted but received over nine targets each with Moore out of the lineup in Week 14 and that kind of condensed passing attack is exactly what leads to the opportunity for fantasy explosions.

WEEK 15 PROJECTIONS