Dave Chidley/CFL.ca
Welcome to the Rubicon, Nathan Rourke.
Week 11 of Grey Expectations not only brings us to the midway point of the CFL regular season, it’s also ushered in by the fact BC’s Prince of Pivot has reached the $14,000 level in CFL fantasy football. That’s a mark achieved by just two other players in the game’s five seasons: the retired Michael Reilly and current Argos receiver Brandon Banks ($3,481), who climbed to the peak of production during his Most Outstanding Player campaign of 2019.
Now that Rourke has planted his flag, the question becomes how long he can stay in this rarified air.
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McLeod Bethel-Thompson could be set for a pass-heavy game against the Stampeders this week when they make their way to BMO Field (Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca)
Quarterbacks
Nathan Rourke, BC ($14,000 salary) — You didn’t expect us to heap all this love upon Rourke and not put him atop this week’s rankings, did you? Rourke tagged the Roughriders for 29.8 fantasy points in their Week 8 meeting and that was without having Bryan Burnham ($8,753) to target. Saskatchewan is seventh in opponents’ average pass; playing at anything less will mean Rourke lands in 35-40 FP territory.
McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Toronto ($9,181) — Without Andrew Harris ($7,695) in the backfield, expect McBeth to pilot Argo Airways to make more frequent stops into a Stampeders secondary that allows a league-high 303.1 yards per game. Calgary has allowed 13 passing majors this season, so look for Bethel-Thompson to snap his string of just one touchdown pass in each of his last three games.
Taylor Cornelius, Edmonton ($8,057) — Not too out of the box as one might think. Cornelius won’t offer up another 20.6 fantasy points with his running, but facing Ottawa’s pass defence, which is eighth in opponents’ average pass while giving up completions at near-70 per cent rate presents one of the best times to roll the dice on him. He’s a strong value play.
Cody Fajardo, Saskatchewan ($10,011) — The salary is a bit steep to invest in considering 1) the Roughriders have the league’s least productive passing game and 2) no pivot outside of Zach Collaros ($9,549) has had much fantasy success against a BC defence that tops the league in most of categories. Oh, there’s also the lingering aroma of the mere 15 points Fajardo produced the first time he faced the Lions this season.
Bo Levi Mitchell, Calgary ($7,047) — Ranked here almost by default, entrusting Mitchell to generate solid fantasy numbers feels like more of a wish these days. He’s yet to deliver more than 20 fantasy points in a game and has topped 16.8 fantasy points just twice. Even in a matchup against an Argos defence that’s been shaky at times, the risk is higher than the reward.
And Then There’s…
Trevor Harris, Montreal ($9,497) — Two majors in his last three games. Ouch.
Caleb Evans, Ottawa ($7,960) — or Nick Arbuckle ($6,526)
Matthew Shiltz, Hamilton ($6,321) — Dane Evans ($7,962) has yet to practice, so let’s assume he doesn’t return.
As the Stamps’ passing game works to get on the same page, Dedrick Mills‘ workload could increase this week against the Argos (The Canadian Press)
Running Backs
Dedrick Mills, Calgary ($4,000) — Injuries have plagued the position to where Mills, if Ka’Deem Carey ($8,808) is out for a third straight game, looks like the best play this week. Calgary’s passing struggles should open the door for more touches from Mills, who has a league-best 7.3 yards per carry along with a solid 11.5 yards per catch.
Jamal Morrow, Saskatchewan ($8,912) — Healthy? Yes. Productive? Not over the past three weeks. BC allows just 76.3 rushing yards per game and Morrow no longer has return duties to help enhance his numbers. With the number of backs banged up, Morrow’s ranking is based more on earlier numbers than “what have you done for me lately?”
Devonte Williams, Ottawa ($4,000) — William Powell ($5,785) hasn’t practiced this week; Williams has been a healthy scratch, which feels more like a “let’s not get him injured” vibe. Williams hasn’t played since Week 2 yet has a solid 5.6 yards per carry on his 21 rushes this season. Edmonton allows 124 yards per game on the ground along with 16 rushing majors, making Williams a strong Please Play Me candidate if he’s atop the depth chart.
James Butler, BC ($8,160) — He should be back into the lineup after missing last week’s win over the Stampeders, yet Butler hasn’t scored since Week 4. After a strong start, he’s become more of a complimentary piece to an offence that throws 61.4 per cent of the time.
Don Jackson, Hamilton ($6,542) — Opportunity awaits Jackson when he faces Montreal’s fantasy-friendly run defence. The Alouettes allow 5.3 yards per carry and are second only to the Elks with 14 rushing touchdowns given up. The problem with Jackson is that not only has he yet found a groove, the Tiger-Cats’ pivots have dominated the running game, with rookie Jamie Newman ($5,000) emerging as a potential short yardage beast.
A.J. Ouellette, Toronto ($4,000) — Ouellette produced 83 yards from scrimmage on his 13 touches (10 carries) after being inserted into the lineup. He will be a serviceable option against Calgary, yet there’s intrigue as to whether he’ll share the workload.
And Then There’s….
Jeshrun Antwi, Montreal ($5,331)
Ante Litre, Edmonton ($2,500)
Maleek Irons, Edmonton ($2,541)
Peyton Logan, Calgary ($5,610)
Sean Thomas-Erlington, Hamilton ($3,706)
Tavien Feaster, Montreal ($3,000)
Daniel Adeboboye, Toronto ($3,500) — The intrigue behind Toronto’s run game.
Frankie Hickson, Saskatchewan ($4,000)
Bruce Anderson III, BC ($3,500)
Is this the week that Jaelon Acklin gets back to his productive ways, after a down game against the Stamps? (Patrick Doyle/CFL.ca)
Receivers
Bryan Burnham, BC ($8,743) — He’s caught 14 of his 16 targets for 247 yards and two majors in his first two games back from the six-game injured list. The rapport he and Rourke have gets scarier with each game, evidenced by his 86.9 per cent catch rate (20 of 23 targets) this season.
Eugene Lewis, Montreal ($9,308) — Consider last week a mulligan. The Alouettes’ offence begins and ends with Lewis, who should thrive against a Hamilton defence that has given up a CFL-high 16 completions of better than 30 yards. Remember: Lewis is just two games removed from tagging the Tiger-Cats for 8-154-0 on his way to 23.4 fantasy points.
Jaelon Acklin, Ottawa ($7,459) — Like Lewis, Acklin is due for a rebound after he all but disappeared in the REDBLACKS’ Week 9 loss to Calgary. Acklin is still second in the league with 715 receiving yards and is second only to BC’s Lucky Whitehead (250) with 227 yards after the catch; favorable numbers to consider when facing Edmonton’s pass defence.
Kenny Lawler, Edmonton ($8,380) — One of three receivers with over 1,000 depth yards, the league’s leader in receptions (48) will have a chance to light up the REDBLACKS’ pass defence, which is giving up 9.6 yards per pass. Stacking him with Taylor Cornelius is…well, wait for that later.
Dominique Rhymes, BC ($9,684) — Rhymes is averaging 95 air yards per game due in part to a solid 12.6 yards per target. There’s more than enough pie to go around for Rhymes to feast joyfully in the Lions’ pass attack.
Tim White, Hamilton ($6,986) — We saw how productive White can be if he’s targeted. Even with the uncertainty of who’s starting at pivot on Saturday, White should be able to continue to pick up his 8.4 yards per target considerably against the Alouettes.
Kurleigh Gittens Jr., Toronto ($7,188) — He’s been a non-factor of late (five catches for 46 yards in the last two games). This should change drastically as the loss of Andrew Harris and Cam Phillips ($3,784) will open up more targets for the Argos’ most efficient receiver.
Lucky Whitehead, BC ($9,185) — Whitehead has caught at least five passes in all but one game this season and is on pace for 1,354 receiving yards. Fun fact: The Lions are on pace to become just the third team in league history to have four receivers eclipse 1,000 yards, last achieved by the 2016 REDBLACKS.
Duke Williams, Saskatchewan ($8,409) — Even with the Roughriders last in passing yards per game, Williams has put up at least 17.6 fantasy points in three of his last four games, scoring three majors in that span. Williams will need his 16.7 yards per target in order to keep his recent stretch against the Lions.
Reggie Begelton, Calgary ($8,541) — Eventually, Begelton is going to hit his stride and put up the numbers we’ve been looking for all season. Why not Saturday against Toronto? After all, the Argonauts have allowed completions at a 71.5 per cent rate.
Keon Hatcher, BC ($5,861) — Overlooked? Try Hatcher catching 18 of his last 21 passes (85.7 per cent) over the past three games, putting up at least 12.1 fantasy points in each.
Steven Dunbar Jr., Hamilton ($7,422) — Last week was only the second time this season that Dunbar failed to produce at least 10 fantasy points. Don’t count on a third time coming this week.
And Then There’s…
Kian Schaffer-Baker, Saskatchewan ($6,137)
Markeith Ambles, Toronto ($6,071)
Kamar Jorden, Calgary ($5,836)
Jake Wieneke, Montreal ($5,850) — This is the week Wieneke breaks out.
Derel Walker, Edmonton ($4,987)
Jevon Cottoy, BC ($5,960)
Darvin Adams, Ottawa ($5,485)
Tyson Philpot, Montreal ($2,500)
Kai Locksley, Edmonton ($3,279)
Mario Alford, Saskatchewan ($3,771)
Nate Behar, Ottawa ($5,380)
Reggie White Jr., Montreal ($4,434)
DaVaris Daniels, Toronto ($6,471)
Jalen Philpot, Calgary ($2,500)
Emmanuel Arceneaux, Edmonton ($3,987)
Brandon Banks, Toronto ($3,481)
Hergy Mayala, Montreal ($3,356)
Richie Sindani, Calgary ($3,300)
Defences
BC ($3,620) — The Lions were blanked defensively last week, but had averaged 10.6 points per game in their previous three games. BC is third in the league with 21 forced turnovers and should be able to add to that total against Saskatchewan.
Calgary ($3,909) — The Stampeders were able to manage eight fantasy points defensively in last week’s slugfest against the Lions. They’ve tallied four defensive majors this season and run up against an Argonauts team that sports a minus-six turnover ratio.
Toronto ($3,524) — A boom-bust unit, Toronto has had three games of at least 13 fantasy points from its defence.
Ottawa ($3,401) — For all its troubles this season, the REDBLACKS have scored at least three points in each contest.
And Then There’s…
Saskatchewan ($3,476)
Hamilton ($3,200)
Montreal ($3,200)
Edmonton ($3,200)
Stacktastic Voyage
Edmonton — Taylor Cornelius ($8,057), Kenny Lawler ($8,380), Kai Locksley ($3,279). If you buy into this game becoming a high-scoring affair, then $19,716 invested in this stack is well-spent.
BC — Bryan Burnham ($8,753), Jevon Cottoy ($5,960), Keon Hatcher ($5,861). Yeah, it’s high at $20,574, but with the way the Lions’ offence is clicking, the little extra doesn’t hurt one bit.
Calgary — Dedrick Mills ($4,000), Reggie Begelton ($8,541), Jalen Philpot ($2,500). This is a sneaky good stack, especially if the Stampeders can give Philpot some targets to go along with his explosive return skills.
Toronto — McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($9,181), A.J. Ouellette ($4,000), Kurleigh Gittens, Jr. ($7,188). Go with the mindset that Ouellette is going to get 15-18 touches, and you’ll feel better about this $20,369 stack.
